The Guys are a Road(?) Dog
Wow. We finally made it. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have made it to the point in the season where a quarter of the games are complete, and the next game is the Shamrock Series game against the Wisconsin Badgers (but also Wisconsin’s “home” game). After three games that still showed at least an inkling of doubt, the Irish jump into this one in a place where they haven’t been in a while.
The team will travel to Chicago to play a ranked opponent in Wisconsin - the first ranked opponent of the season. The Irish had been favorites to win the first three games of the season. Even though the first two were way too close, the third game against Purdue saw the Irish cover the spread for the first time this season. However, the Irish are actually not favorites against Wisconsin even with being ranked higher and being undefeated. Let’s break it down.
ND vs. Wisconsin Betting Lines
This game against Wisconsin shows something that we have not seen like this in a while - the Irish as a pretty big underdog. First of all, the Irish are 6.5-point underdogs, which is a HUGE switch from being TD-favorites last week to the spread leaning toward the Irish losing by a possession. Additionally, Wisconsin a whopping -235 on the moneyline compared to the Irish at +190. I do not have any idea why the numbers are THIS much in favor of Wisconsin except to think that the eye test is ruling right now. The point total is way lower this week because that is what we have seen from Wisconsin under Paul Chryst.
The Irish have admittedly not looked all that sharp in three games against competition that is perceived to be worse. Wisconsin, though, has one loss to a Top-5 team in Penn State. They also comfortably beat Easter Michigan and then proceeded to have a Bye Week last week. It’s weird to think that 3 games that were not convincing (and they were STILL WINS) are seemingly driving these betting lines this week.
Matty G’s Predictions
Well, Oddsshark has an interesting prediction. They think that Wisconsin would win by about one point but so that both teams score in the high-20s. Thus, the over would hit on the point total. They also provide some conflicting trends in that both the Irish and the Badgers have not covered many of the spreads in their last 6 or 7 games. Also, Wisconsin definitely trends toward the under hitting in their games.
You can call me a homer or too much of a fan, but I don’t really care. I don’t know exactly how this game is going to pan out, but I see the Irish covering this spread with a great chance to win outright. I don’t think Wisconsin has given us enough evidence to show they could beat the Irish by a full possession. That is NOT a knock on Wisconsin, and I’m not trying to hype up an Irish team that still has a lot to work on - I mean it when I just am not confident in exactly what will occur. I wouldn’t touch this game with a 10-foot pole with these betting lines - it is all such a wildcard game.
But, with that, I believe the Irish will cover (and I still predict a W). I also think the over hits just slightly on that point total. That would mean the score could be 24-23 so the over could hit. It’s a low amount of points, and both teams could get some scores.
DAMHSA BUA Count
Last week, the amount of DAMHSA BUAs went under. This week, with the point total what it’s going to be in the game, I’m going to set the OVER/UNDER at 3.5 DAMHSA BUAs in Chicago. Will the Irish score more or fewer than 3 TDs? I think they will, and I will predict OVER. Will the Irish cover, or will something else happen? Let me know by voting in the poll and commenting below.
OVER or UNDER 3.5 DAMHSA BUAs vs. Wisconsin?
This poll is closed
Go Irish. Beat Badgers.