Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover
Let’s hope that the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can continue showing themselves to be more than good, but a great team this coming weekend. After beating UNC by 10 points on Saturday night and beating USC by 15 the week before that, the Irish have now handily covered the spread in the home, night game stretch. Actually, the Irish covered the last three games going back to the Virginia Tech game, too.
This week, the Irish welcome the Navy Midshipmen to South Bend. Notre Dame and Navy did not play last year because of Covid restrictions to schedules, leaving Navy to be the third of three opponents that are on every schedule every year except for when 2020 was a thing. Navy has been struggling since the 2020 season, but that usually doesn’t mean a whole lot when they bring their triple option offense. Let’s see how the betting lines shake out for this game.
ND vs. Navy Betting Lines
As of Tuesday afternoon, this is where we see the betting lines. The Irish are exactly three-touchdown favorites. Of course, the Irish are HUGE favorites at -1375 with Navy at +800 on the moneyline. With Navy’s overall struggles, Vegas sees this game as being not that close, especially since Notre Dame is a Top 10 team (and hopefully will stay that after the CFP rankings come out Tuesday night). The game total is interesting this week and very low for a Notre Dame game: 46 points flat. With Navy’s longer drives and their ability to limit the total number of opponent drives, this makes sense.
Oddsshark also agrees with the under hitting because of a lack of Navy offense combined with the Irish probably planning on getting fewer offensive possessions than a normal game. As far as trends go, ND and Navy are both 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The total has gone over in 8 of the last 10 ND-Navy games, but the total has gone under in 4 of Navy’s last 5 games. Navy are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against ND.
Matty G’s Prediction
Considering what the lines are, I would stay away from the line with it being 21 points flat. That spread would make me run away from it. But, I would predict Navy to cover that number. These games are usually fluky in one way or another, and I see Navy being able to hang around within 3 touchdowns. As far as the total, I like the over in this one. The Irish could get the ball a few times to score, and you know Navy will get a triple option touchdown plus probably a random 60 yard pass play for a TD because that always seems to happen. The over could hit with a score and Irish victory like 31-17, so I will take that. Not a commanding performance, but enough that it could be a decent win. Honestly, most wins against Navy are fine so we can get the hell outta there hopefully unscathed.
DAMHSA BUA Count
Last week the over hit on the DAMHSA BUAs. This week, I’m going to set the O/U at 4.5 again. Do you think the Irish try to put a rout on? Or are you like me and thinking that this could be closer than we all want it to be? Let me know in the poll below on TDs scored, and let me know in the comments what you think about the betting lines in general.
OVER or UNDER 4.5 DAMHSA BUAs vs Navy?
This poll is closed
Go Irish. Beat Navy.