Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends.
Hello, Irish fans. Game week is GLORIOUSLY upon us. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be playing a football game that counts against the Duke Blue Devils this Saturday afternoon in Notre Dame Stadium. To say that I am giddy would be an understatement.
As many of you have probably seen over the last few years (and especially in the first few college football games of this season), betting lines are all over college football broadcasts. ESPN provides the betting lines on the College Gameday picks. Scott Van Pelt and Stanford Steve host one of the best ESPN segments ever: Bad Beats. Chris Fallica, The Bear, will provide his best against the spread (ATS) picks every week on College Gameday, too. With sports betting becoming fully legal in many states across the country (with more joining that list soon), sports broadcasters have looked to take advantage of that market. It becomes interesting, even as someone on the outside, to see how gambling impacts the consuption of college football.
This week, I begin to take the betting lines for each Notre Dame game and extrapolate those out to understand why they are what they are. Many times, the lines end up becoming extremely accurate, as many people will claim that “Vegas knows.” Regardless, betting lines are set based on a very real possibility of what could/should happen in the games. Now, college football is a flawed sport played by flawed 18-22 year old young adults, so the upsets and crazy games still occur. But, we take an attempt at being rational with what the betting lines present to us.*
*As an important note, this is NOT going to be an article on what people should or should not bet. This is strictly on analysis and fan thoughts.
ND vs. Duke - the lines for this week
A couple of weeks ago, the betting lines for this game were released. Initially, the Irish came out as 20.5 point favorites. If you’re just starting to see and understand betting lines, that would mean the matchup would be written in a way such as “Duke @ Notre Dame (-20.5).” The favorite always has a negative point spread, and the underdog could see a positive point spread next to their name. In this case, the game could also read as Duke (+20.5) @ Notre Dame.
This week this is how the betting lines look:
As of Tuesday night (9/8), the Irish have actually dropped a point as favorites to -19.5. The O/U on total points for this game is at 54.5. If the game were a one-point win for the Irish, that would mean they would win something like 28-27. Notre Dame games have gone under recently, but Duke games have gone over. Since the initial lines came out, and actually just this week, Duke named Chase Brice their starting quarterback. That might’ve had bettors put some more money on Duke to cover that spread in the last couple days since they now have a defined QB and he was a Clemson transfer.
According to Oddshark, last season, the Irish were 9-4 ATS, and they were 5-0 ATS in their last five games (a dominant stretch of games, too). Duke is also 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games. Let’s also not forget that the Irish have won their last 18 games at home. With the downtrend of Duke and the way that the Irish have such talent and depth across the board combined with that home game record does allow for the reason why the point spread is what it is. It truly makes sense. There is a chance that Duke keeps this within 3 possessions, but the point spread is showing that this could be a fun game for the Irish.
Matty G’s Prediction
I think the Irish come out firing on all cylinders ready to play some football (finally) and against a team that objectively has less talent. Again, anything can happen, but I can see the Irish covering that spread considering past trends, too. Additionally, I see Duke scoring some points, so I also predict 55 points or more scored in the game.
BONUS Weekly Prediction
Here at OneFootDown, we are VERY pro “Damsha Bua.” Even back before my OFD days, my dad and I would always predict how many Damsha Buas the ND Band would play that day (how many TDs the Irish score in the game). I will give you my prediction and an O/U on these each week, which you all can predict, too.
The Irish come out HOT and ready to rock and roll. I’m going to set the DAMSHA BUA Over/Under at 4.5 (I always like to put the .5 on spreads and point totals so that if you were to guess, you would need a whole number to win or lose). I think the OVER on DAMSHA BUAs hit. I’m not saying it’s going to be 7 or 8 touchdowns for the Irish, but I can see there being 5+ TDs in a much anticpated opening to the Irish season.
So, let us know in the poll: Does the under or the over hit on Damsha Buas? Let us know in the comments, too, what you think about the spread and O/U. What will happen with those? Give us a shout.
GO IRISH. BEAT DUKE.
OVER or UNDER on 4.5 DAMSHA BUAs?
This poll is closed