Yes, we have indeed been waiting such a long time. On Saturday, it will have been a full three weeks since the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will have played any football that counts. Of course we all know there was the Covid outbreak, postponing the Wake Forest game until December. This past Saturday was already your regularly-scheduled bye week for this abridged 2020 season. Now, after 21 days, it will be time for football when the Irish take on the Florida State Seminoles in Notre Dame Stadium.
A benefit to the changed schedule is that the Irish were not going to play FSU this season, but now they are to re-hash the old rivalry. This is going to be a totally different matchup from ND-FSU games of old, kinda like we saw in 2018 when the two teams last met. The Irish seem to be an overmatch for the Seminoles this season as FSU alread has had a rollercoaster season.
ND vs FSU Betting Lines
Because of the context of this season and how the two teams are playing, the betting lines are pretty lopsided. The Seminoles come into the game with a 1-2 record. They lost to Georgia Tech in the season opener in a game that saw the Seminoles way underperform. There was a chance that Mike Norvell could help right the ship, but they struggled early on. They then followed up that game with Miami absolutely shellacking them the next week. Last weekend, they let Jacksonville State lead 14-0 before figuring things out and getting a 41-21 victory.
The Irish, on the other hands, have looked overall strong. It was a slower start with the win against Duke, but then the Irish messed around and dropped a 52-0 game on USF. Unfortunately, we could not see more of the Irish since that game because of this two-week hiatus.
All of this has led to the spreads being what they are. The Irish are currently sitting as 21-point favorites, and the O/U sits at 52 points.
To me, the total is probably pretty accurate. The spread, though, is too lopsided. I totally understand why the spread is what it is, though. The Irish have a strong team, and should have most of their roster available to play, even after the team’s Covid outbreak. Additionally, Kevin Austin is supposed to be back to play. The Seminoles have struggled mightly this season,too. But, we have seen teams like UNC come back after being gone 21 days and struggle a bit. UNC just beat Boston College by 4, only scoring 26 points. The Irish could come back slower than we saw in the USF game, and that could lead to the game being closer than the spread suggests.
According to Oddsshark, the prediction is the Irish winning somewhere around 41-17. However, they also say FSU is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games while the Irish are 6-1 in their last 7. FSU’s games also trend toward the over hitting, while Notre Dame’s games still flirt a lot with the under on the total.
Matty G’s Prediction
The spread is a bit too high. If the Irish did not have an extra week off (and a whole week with no football activity), I would probably say the Irish would cover with all of FSU’s issues so far this season. But, I could see the Irish winning by double digits, but somewhere in the 14-17 point range. I could even maybe see a 20 or 21-point victory with some late scoring to pull away from the Seminoles. But, I do not see the Irish covering. With the total, I think the OVER hits in something like a 38-21 game. The Seminoles will score a bit to make the game annoying, with the Irish leading like 28-21 or 31-21 going into the fourth quarter.
As far as the DAMHSA BUA count goes for this week, lets put the O/U at 4.5. I think 5+ TDs could happen, but 4 or fewer could be interesting considering the trend of sluggish starts after long breaks for teams. I’ll take the OVER, but just barely here.
OVER or UNDER 4.5 DAMHSA BUAs against FSU?
This poll is closed
Go Irish. Beat Seminoles. Hope we see some strong Arnaz Battle energy on Saturday night.