The Notre Dame Fighting Irish defeated the Louisville Cardinals, 35-17, tonight at Cardinal Stadium.
IT WAS OVER WHEN...: The Irish were 19 point favorites to defeat the Cardinals, so oddsmakers believed it was over before the game kicked off.
The Irish didn’t hit 100 percent win probability until, up 28-17 in the middle of the fourth quarter, Ian Book threw a 14-yard pass to Chase Claypool. The shifty Canadian receiver zig-zagged, broke two tackles and turned it into a gain of 36 yards. The Irish scored two plays later to make it 35-17.
SUCCESS RATE: Book was 14-for-23 for 193 yards and a touchdown. But his success rate was just 44 percent, one of his worst career outings by that metric.
What is success rate?
“The goal of success rate is to create an on-base percentage-style efficiency measure,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote last year. “Depending on a given down and distance, each play is deemed successful or non-successful:
- First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
- Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
- Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.”
For quarterback performances, Connelly told me to consider only downs where a pass was attempted or a sack was recorded. (He’d also suggest adjusting for opponent, which I haven’t done.)
To put that in context, Book’s performance Monday was similar to his 25-for-35, 271 yard performance against the Virginia Tech Hokies last year. He had a 45.9 percent success rate in that game.
As for the team, Notre Dame ran 65 offensive plays. Thirty-two were successful by the metric’s standards; thirty-three were not.
BREAKING TACKLES: Claypool made three people miss on two separate plays, including the play described above. Tony Jones Jr., who rushed for 112 yards on 15 carries, also caused three missed tackles. C’Bo Flemister, who ran three times for five yards, caused two misses, while Book, Jahmir Smith and Jafar Armstrong had one each.
YARDS AFTER CONTACT: As I used to chart games for College Football Film Room, I use their guideline to calculate based on where the ball was when contact was made. It has to be substantial contact, when the runner is either slowed or in danger of being tackled.
- Book: 14 carries, 20 yards after contact
- Jones Jr.: 15 carries, 35 yards after contact
- Smith: 8 carries, 22 yards after contact
- Flemister: 3 carries, 7 yards after contact
- Armstrong: 2 carries, 8 yards after contact
YARDS AFTER THE CATCH: Total yards minus air yards.
- Claypool: 5 catches, 54 yards after the catch
- Tommy Tremble: 3 catches, 20 yards after the catch
- Lawrence Keys III: 2 catches, 11 yards after the catch
- Armstrong: 1 catch, 15 yards after the catch
- Javon McKinley: 1 catch, 6 yards after the catch
- Smith: 1 catch, 9 yards after the catch
- Chris Finke: 1 catch, 0 yards after the catch
BOOK PASSING CHART
All passes were attempted from the shotgun.
Behind line of scrimmage: 2-for-2, 11 yards
Throws left, 0-9 yards: 3-5, 25 yards, 2 first downs, 1 drop (by Kyren Williams)
Throws middle, 0-9 yards: 5-6, 78 yards, 4 first downs
Throws right, 0-9 yards: 1-2, 2 yards, 1 throw away
Throws left, 10-19 yards: 3-4, 76 yards, 3 first downs, 1 touchdown, 1 throw away
Throws middle, 10-19 yards: 0-0, 0 yards
Throws right, 10-19 yards: 0-2, 0 yards
Throws left, 20 or more yards: 0-2, 0 yards, both thrown away
Throws middle, 20 or more yards: 0-0, 0 yards
Throws right, 20 or more yards: 0-0, 0 yards
Although Book attempted 23 passes, I had him dropping back with the intention of passing 32 times. His nine scrambles went for 51 yards. (His final stat line for running: 14 carries, 81 yards.)
On 19 of Book’s 23 passes, the pocket was clean (no pressure and he didn’t scramble). He was 14 for 19 in those instances for 193 yards. He was 0-for-4 when pressured, including 0-2 with the pocket collapsing.
BOOK VERSUS HIS PREDECESSORS
The senior has now taken 917 snaps under center for the Irish. Here’s how his statistics match up to seven of his predecessors who took that many snaps for Notre Dame.
Notre Dame QBs through 917 Snaps, 2000-2019
Category | HOLIDAY | QUINN | CLAUSEN | REES | GOLSON | KIZER | WIMBUSH | BOOK |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | HOLIDAY | QUINN | CLAUSEN | REES | GOLSON | KIZER | WIMBUSH | BOOK |
Run plays | 660 | 487 | 458 | 439 | 496 | 490 | 567 | 505 |
Yds gained from run | 2644 | 1984 | 1181 | 2240 | 2308 | 2547 | 3417 | 2357 |
Yards per run attempt | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 4.7 |
Runs by QB (excluding sacks) | 203 | 42 | 46 | 25 | 104 | 144 | 160 | 121 |
Yds gained from run by QB (excluding sacks) | 987 | 134 | 126 | 33 | 540 | 811 | 1175 | 704 |
Yards per QB run (excluding sacks) | 4.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 |
Pass plays | 257 | 430 | 459 | 478 | 421 | 427 | 350 | 412 |
Yds gained from pass | 1466 | 2570 | 2847 | 3330 | 3224 | 3785 | 2429 | 3271 |
Completions | 128 | 209 | 270 | 306 | 255 | 271 | 176 | 274 |
Completion % | 49.8% | 48.6% | 58.8% | 64.0% | 60.6% | 63.5% | 50.3% | 66.5% |
Yards per comp | 11.5 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 14.0 | 13.8 | 11.9 |
Yards per attempt | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 7.9 |
Total yards gained (run & pass) | 4110 | 4554 | 4028 | 5570 | 5532 | 6332 | 5846 | 5628 |
3rd Down conversions by pass | 42.5% | 39.1% | 47.3% | 39.0% | 42.7% | |||
Non-penalty first downs | 194 | 205 | 202 | 277 | 282 | 273 | 246 | 273 |
First downs by pass | 67 | 109 | 121 | 162 | 158 | 161 | 104 | 154 |
First downs by QB run | 44 | 17 | 15 | 7 | 31 | 38 | 48 | 32 |
% of 1Ds accounted for | 57.2% | 61.5% | 67.3% | 61.0% | 67.0% | 72.9% | 61.8% | 68.1% |
% of 1D runs accounted for by QB | 34.6% | 17.7% | 18.5% | 6.1% | 25.0% | 33.9% | 33.8% | 26.9% |
Touchdowns | 25 | 31 | 29 | 52 | 42 | 63 | 49 | 55 |
Touchdowns thrown | 5 | 14 | 21 | 30 | 19 | 32 | 17 | 24 |
Touchdowns thrown % of all TDs | 20.0% | 45.2% | 72.4% | 57.7% | 45.2% | 50.8% | 34.7% | 43.6% |
Touchdowns run | 20 | 17 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
Touchdowns run by QB | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 5 |
% of total TDs that were run by QB | 16.0% | 3.2% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 23.8% | 23.8% | 30.6% | 9.1% |
TDs by QB (arm or legs) | 9 | 15 | 23 | 30 | 29 | 47 | 32 | 29 |
TDs by QB as % of total TDs | 36.0% | 48.4% | 79.3% | 57.7% | 69.0% | 74.6% | 65.3% | 52.7% |
Interceptions | 9 | 19 | 14 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
Interceptions per attempt | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
Fumbles | 25 | 16 | 25 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 8 | 13 |
Fumbles lost | 14 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 5 |
Fumbles by QB | 17 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
Fumbles lost by QB | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
QB carries (including sacks) | 203 | 59 | 87 | 33 | 126 | 170 | 188 | 147 |
Fumbles lost per QB carry | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 15.2% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
Sacks | 33 | 18 | 41 | 8 | 22 | 26 | 28 | 26 |
Sacked per pass attempt | 12.8% | 4.2% | 8.9% | 1.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% |
Negative yardage plays | 119 | 93 | 118 | 77 | 79 | 94 | 100 | 95 |
Negative yardage plays by QB | 65 | 24 | 46 | 14 | 29 | 39 | 44 | 35 |
Explosive pass plays (20+ yards) | 16 | 28 | 36 | 46 | 47 | 53 | 46 | 48 |
Explosive run plays (12+ yards) | 59 | 56 | 29 | 65 | 50 | 60 | 75 | 55 |
Explosive plays total | 75 | 84 | 65 | 111 | 97 | 113 | 121 | 103 |
Explosive plays by QB run | 29 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 28 | 14 |
Explosive plays by QB arms/legs | 45 | 33 | 36 | 47 | 58 | 71 | 74 | 62 |
Explosive % generated by QB | 60.0% | 39.3% | 55.4% | 42.3% | 59.8% | 62.8% | 61.2% | 60.2% |
First Down success rate | 57.0% | 53.3% | 47.8% | 36.6% | 49.7% | |||
Second Down success rate | 45.6% | 52.7% | 48.6% | 29.1% | 45.3% | |||
Third Down success rate | 43.1% | 39.3% | 45.1% | 35.5% | 43.1% | |||
Fourth Down success rate | 66.7% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 66.7% | |||
Overall success rate | 49.8% | 49.4% | 47.5% | 34.1% | 47.3% |
DID YOU SEE THIS?
Issa broken nose
— Liz (@Elizabethsc0tt) September 3, 2019