clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Notre Dame Football: A Deeper Statistical Look at the Irish Offense vs. Navy

New, 2 comments

Ian Book et al made a ranked Midshipmen team look like Bowling Green

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 16 Navy at Notre Dame Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The 16th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish beat the No. 23 Navy Midshipmen, 52-20, Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium.

IT WAS OVER WHEN...

Jonathan Doerer successfully completes a 32-yard field goal with 4:45 remaining in the second quarter.
NBC Sports

With 4:45 remaining in the second quarter, Notre Dame kicker Jonathan Doerer drilled a 32-yard field goal to put the Irish up 31-0. The Irish, seven point favorites coming into the game, reached 100 percent win probability after that made field goal.

SUCCESS RATE

Ian Book was 14-of-20 for 284 yards, 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions. His success rate for the game was 65 percent, the sixth best performance of any Irish quarterback in the Brian Kelly era (minimum 10 attempts) and tied for the best effort this year.

What is success rate?

“The goal of success rate is to create an on-base percentage-style efficiency measure,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote last year. “Depending on a given down and distance, each play is deemed successful or non-successful:

  • First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
  • Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
  • Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.”

For quarterback performances, Connelly told me to consider only downs where a pass was attempted or a sack was recorded. (He’d also suggest adjusting for opponent, which I haven’t done.)

The Irish ran 53 offensive plays and were successful on 26 of them. Their 49.1 percent success rate as a team was 37th best in the Brian Kelly era and fourth best this year.

BREAKING TACKLES/MISSED TACKLES

I charted Book with one missed tackle caused and Claypool with two missed tackles caused. For the season, Tony Jones Jr. has broken or dodged the most tackles — 24. Claypool is second with 10, and Book is third with nine.

YARDS AFTER CONTACT

As I used to chart games for College Football Film Room, I use their guideline to calculate based on where the ball was when contact was made. It has to be substantial contact, when the runner is either slowed or in danger of being tackled.

Yards After Contact, 2019

Ball carrier Navy rushes Navy yards after contact Season yards after contact Season total yards % of total yards
Ball carrier Navy rushes Navy yards after contact Season yards after contact Season total yards % of total yards
ARMSTRONG 7 6 48 70 69%
ASSAF 0 0 19 23 83%
BOOK 5 5 129 421 31%
CLARK 0 0 11 33 33%
DAVIS 0 0 6 10 60%
FINKE 0 0 0 7 0%
FLEMISTER 3 8 64 101 63%
J. SMITH 1 2 129 182 71%
JONES JR. 9 13 306 611 50%
JURKOVEC 2 2 80 88 91%
KEYS 1 0 10 45 22%
LENZY 1 2 12 79 15%
WILLIAMS 0 0 9 26 35%
YOUNG 0 0 1 2 50%
Total 29 38 824 1,698 72.9%
@ndjrs / Twitter

YARDS AFTER THE CATCH

Total yards minus air yards. Air yards can be negative if the ball is thrown behind the line of scrimmage.

Yards After the Catch, 2019

Ball carrier Receptions vs. Navy Yards vs. Navy YAC vs. Navy YAC season Season rec yds YAC as % of season total
Ball carrier Receptions vs. Navy Yards vs. Navy YAC vs. Navy YAC season Season rec yds YAC as % of season total
ARMSTRONG 2 12 4 89 89 100.0%
CLAYPOOL 7 117 53 285 768 37.1%
DAVIS 0 0 0 95 124 76.6%
FINKE 3 57 15 136 339 40.1%
FLEMISTER 0 0 0 18 13 138.5%
J. SMITH 0 0 0 13 12 108.3%
JONES JR. 0 0 0 45 57 78.9%
KEYS 2 32 0 52 115 45.2%
KMET 0 0 0 131 327 40.1%
LENZY 2 87 24 68 199 34.2%
MCKINLEY 0 0 0 113 268 42.2%
TAKACS 0 0 0 0 2 0.0%
TREMBLE 0 0 0 67 145 46.2%
WILLIAMS 0 0 0 8 3 266.7%
WRIGHT 0 0 0 27 45 60.0%
YOUNG 0 0 0 24 21 114.3%
Total 16 305 96 1171 2527 46.3%
Total yards minus air yards. @ndjrs / Twitter

BOOK PASSING CHART

Ian Book Passing Chart, 2019

Pass thrown... vs. Navy Season Total
Pass thrown... vs. Navy Season Total
At or behind LOS 0-for-0, 0 yards 46-for-60, 361 yards, 3 TDs
Left, 0-9 yards 0-for-0, 0 yards 28-for-38, 287 yards, 5 TDs
Middle, 0-9 yards 2-for-3, 10 yards, 1 TD 18-for-28, 194 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Right, 0-9 yards 6-for-6, 67 yards, 1 TD 37-for-59, 260 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Left, 10-19 yards 1-for-1, 15 yards 11-for-23, 233 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Middle, 10-19 yards 0-for-2, 0 yards 6-for-11, 95 yards, 4 TDs
Right, 10-19 yards 0-for-2, 0 yards 7-for-27, 138 yards, 1 INT
Left, 20+ yards 2-for-2, 97 yards, 1 TD 11-for-23, 355 yards, 1 TD
Mid, 20+ yards 1-for-2, 47 yards, 1 TD 4-for-12, 144 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Right, 20+ yards 2-for-2, 48 yards, 1 TD 9-for-20, 226 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
@ndjrs / Twitter

TARGET COUNT

Notre Dame quarterbacks are targeting Chase Claypool an average of 8.3 times per game this year. If he continues on that trajectory, the wide receiver from British Columbia will have 100 targets by the end of the regular season.

Miles Boykin had 99 targets during a 13-game season in 2018, excluding plays negated by penalty. The last Notre Dame receiver to be targeted 100 or more times was Will Fuller in 2015. He had exactly 100 targets.

Targets in the 2019 Season

Receiver Virginia Tech Duke Navy Total
Receiver Virginia Tech Duke Navy Total
Chase Claypool 14 7 9 83
Cole Kmet 9 5 2 43
Chris Finke 9 6 3 42
Javon McKinley 2 3 0 20
Tommy Tremble 1 1 1 17
Thrown away 7 1 0 21
Lawrence Keys III 1 1 2 16
Tony Jones Jr. 0 2 1 15
Michael Young 0 0 0 9
Avery Davis 3 1 0 11
Braden Lenzy 2 0 2 11
Jafar Armstrong 5 3 2 15
Brock Wright 0 0 0 3
Jahmir Smith 0 0 0 3
Kyren Williams 0 0 0 2
C'Bo Flemsiter 0 0 0 2
Joe Wilkins 0 0 0 2
George Takacs 0 1 0 1
Batted pass 0 1 0 1
Total 53 32 22 317
@ndjrs / Twitter

BOOK VERSUS HIS PREDECESSORS

The senior has now taken 1,444 snaps under center for the Irish. Here’s how his statistics match up to five of his predecessors who took that many snaps for Notre Dame. (Carlyle Holiday took 1,443 snaps under center for the Irish from 2001-2004.)

Notre Dame QBs Through 1,444 Snaps, 2000-2019

Category QUINN CLAUSEN REES GOLSON KIZER BOOK
Category QUINN CLAUSEN REES GOLSON KIZER BOOK
Run plays 787 727 706 751 765 754
Yds gained from run 3067 2125 3330 3366 3890 3575
Yards per run attempt 3.9 2.9 4.7 4.5 5.1 4.7
Runs by QB (excluding sacks) 65 64 30 163 215 183
Yds gained from run by QB (excluding sacks) 221 173 45 859 1257 1087
Yards per QB run (excluding sacks) 3.4 2.7 1.5 5.3 5.8 5.9
Pass plays 657 717 738 693 679 690
Yds gained from pass 4237 4902 5284 5451 5686 5372
Completions 332 430 466 416 413 437
Completion % 50.5% 60.0% 63.1% 60.0% 60.8% 63.3%
Yards per comp 12.8 11.4 11.3 13.1 13.8 12.3
Yards per attempt 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.9 8.4 7.8
Total yards gained (run & pass) 7304 7027 8614 8817 9576 8947
3rd Down conversions by pass 41.8% 40.8% 43.0% 39.1%
Non-penalty first downs 338 342 425 436 429 414
First downs by pass 185 204 251 252 242 235
First downs by QB run 25 17 9 49 60 52
% of 1Ds accounted for 62.1% 64.6% 61.2% 69.0% 70.4% 69.3%
% of 1D runs accounted for by QB 16.3% 12.3% 5.2% 26.6% 32.1% 29.1%
Touchdowns 53 48 70 74 88 90
Touchdowns thrown 24 36 39 39 46 49
Touchdowns thrown % of all TDs 45.3% 75.0% 55.7% 52.7% 52.3% 54.4%
Touchdowns run 29 12 31 35 42 41
Touchdowns run by QB 3 2 1 14 18 8
% of total TDs that were run by QB 5.7% 4.2% 1.4% 18.9% 20.5% 8.9%
TDs by QB (arm or legs) 27 38 40 53 64 57
TDs by QB as % of total TDs 50.9% 79.2% 57.1% 71.6% 72.7% 63.3%
Interceptions 24 23 26 18 19 17
Interceptions per attempt 3.7% 3.2% 3.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5%
Fumbles 21 30 16 30 26 16
Fumbles lost 8 17 8 18 12 6
Fumbles by QB 8 9 8 17 9 6
Fumbles lost by QB 3 5 6 11 4 3
QB carries (including sacks) 99 118 51 198 259 218
Fumbles lost per QB carry 3.0% 4.2% 11.8% 5.6% 1.5% 1.4%
Sacks 35 54 21 35 44 35
Sacked per pass attempt 5.3% 7.5% 2.8% 5.1% 6.5% 5.1%
Negative yardage plays 138 169 127 126 140 135
Negative yardage plays by QB 44 61 27 53 64 48
Explosive pass plays (20+ yards) 52 64 75 89 87 87
Explosive run plays (12+ yards) 76 48 89 74 91 81
Explosive plays total 128 112 164 163 178 168
Explosive plays by QB run 7 0 1 19 28 23
Explosive plays by QB arms/legs 59 64 76 108 115 110
Explosive % generated by QB 46.1% 57.1% 46.3% 66.3% 64.6% 65.5%
First Down success rate 54.0% 50.2% 48.5% 48.5%
Second Down success rate 45.6% 49.1% 45.0% 43.3%
Third Down success rate 42.1% 41.2% 40.9% 40.1%
Fourth Down success rate 40.0% 50.0% 38.5% 60.0%
Overall success rate 48.1% 47.5% 45.2% 45.1%
2019 success rate 42.0%
@ndjrs / Twitter