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Notre Dame Football: A Deeper Statistical Look at the Irish Offense Versus Duke

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Compare Ian Book’s stats to Everett Golson’s. Weird, right?

Notre Dame v Duke Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish steamrolled the Duke Blue Devils, 38-7, at Wallace Wade Stadium Saturday.

IT WAS OVER WHEN...

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With 1:17 remaining in the third quarter and the score 28-7 Irish, the Blue Devils faced a second and 10 from their own 28 yard line. Quentin Harris dropped back, but his line decided to leave Notre Dame linebacker Asmar Bilal unblocked. Bilal clocked Harris as he released, causing the quarterback to nearly throw a pick to Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.

It was at this point that Notre Dame reached 100 percent win probability.

SUCCESS RATE

Ian Book was 18-for-32 for 181 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His success rate was 36.4 percent, tied for the sixth best Book performance this year by this metric. It’s the 104th best performance of the Brian Kelly era among any quarterback who attempted at least 10 passes.

What is success rate?

“The goal of success rate is to create an on-base percentage-style efficiency measure,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote last year. “Depending on a given down and distance, each play is deemed successful or non-successful:

  • First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
  • Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
  • Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.”

For quarterback performances, Connelly told me to consider only downs where a pass was attempted or a sack was recorded. (He’d also suggest adjusting for opponent, which I haven’t done.)

As for the entire offense, Notre Dame’s success rate was 44.6 percent (33 successful, 41 unsuccessful). That’s the 56th best performance in the Brian Kelly era by this metric and the fifth best this season.

BREAKING TACKLES/MISSED TACKLES

I had Jahmir Smith and Tony Jones Jr. breaking or dodging two tackles each, while Lawrence Keys freed himself from one tackle.

For the season, Jones Jr. has caused 24 broken or missed tackles. Book and wide receiver Chase Claypool are next best with eight tackles broken or missed each.

YARDS AFTER CONTACT

As I used to chart games for College Football Film Room, I use their guideline to calculate based on where the ball was when contact was made. It has to be substantial contact, when the runner is either slowed or in danger of being tackled.

Yards After Contact, 2019

Ball carrier Navy rushes Navy yards after contact Season yards after contact Season total yards % of total yards
Ball carrier Navy rushes Navy yards after contact Season yards after contact Season total yards % of total yards
ARMSTRONG 7 6 48 70 69%
ASSAF 0 0 19 23 83%
BOOK 5 5 129 421 31%
CLARK 0 0 11 33 33%
DAVIS 0 0 6 10 60%
FINKE 0 0 0 7 0%
FLEMISTER 3 8 64 101 63%
J. SMITH 1 2 129 182 71%
JONES JR. 9 13 306 611 50%
JURKOVEC 2 2 80 88 91%
KEYS 1 0 10 45 22%
LENZY 1 2 12 79 15%
WILLIAMS 0 0 9 26 35%
YOUNG 0 0 1 2 50%
Total 29 38 824 1,698 72.9%
@ndjrs / Twitter

YARDS AFTER THE CATCH

Yards After the Catch, 2019

Ball carrier Receptions vs. Navy Yards vs. Navy YAC vs. Navy YAC season Season rec yds YAC as % of season total
Ball carrier Receptions vs. Navy Yards vs. Navy YAC vs. Navy YAC season Season rec yds YAC as % of season total
ARMSTRONG 2 12 4 89 89 100.0%
CLAYPOOL 7 117 53 285 768 37.1%
DAVIS 0 0 0 95 124 76.6%
FINKE 3 57 15 136 339 40.1%
FLEMISTER 0 0 0 18 13 138.5%
J. SMITH 0 0 0 13 12 108.3%
JONES JR. 0 0 0 45 57 78.9%
KEYS 2 32 0 52 115 45.2%
KMET 0 0 0 131 327 40.1%
LENZY 2 87 24 68 199 34.2%
MCKINLEY 0 0 0 113 268 42.2%
TAKACS 0 0 0 0 2 0.0%
TREMBLE 0 0 0 67 145 46.2%
WILLIAMS 0 0 0 8 3 266.7%
WRIGHT 0 0 0 27 45 60.0%
YOUNG 0 0 0 24 21 114.3%
Total 16 305 96 1171 2527 46.3%
Total yards minus air yards. @ndjrs / Twitter

BOOK PASSING CHART

Ian Book Passing Chart, 2019

Pass thrown... vs. Navy Season Total
Pass thrown... vs. Navy Season Total
At or behind LOS 0-for-0, 0 yards 46-for-60, 361 yards, 3 TDs
Left, 0-9 yards 0-for-0, 0 yards 28-for-38, 287 yards, 5 TDs
Middle, 0-9 yards 2-for-3, 10 yards, 1 TD 18-for-28, 194 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Right, 0-9 yards 6-for-6, 67 yards, 1 TD 37-for-59, 260 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Left, 10-19 yards 1-for-1, 15 yards 11-for-23, 233 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Middle, 10-19 yards 0-for-2, 0 yards 6-for-11, 95 yards, 4 TDs
Right, 10-19 yards 0-for-2, 0 yards 7-for-27, 138 yards, 1 INT
Left, 20+ yards 2-for-2, 97 yards, 1 TD 11-for-23, 355 yards, 1 TD
Mid, 20+ yards 1-for-2, 47 yards, 1 TD 4-for-12, 144 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Right, 20+ yards 2-for-2, 48 yards, 1 TD 9-for-20, 226 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
@ndjrs / Twitter

TARGET COUNT

Targets in the 2019 Season

Receiver Virginia Tech Duke Navy Total
Receiver Virginia Tech Duke Navy Total
Chase Claypool 14 7 9 83
Cole Kmet 9 5 2 43
Chris Finke 9 6 3 42
Javon McKinley 2 3 0 20
Tommy Tremble 1 1 1 17
Thrown away 7 1 0 21
Lawrence Keys III 1 1 2 16
Tony Jones Jr. 0 2 1 15
Michael Young 0 0 0 9
Avery Davis 3 1 0 11
Braden Lenzy 2 0 2 11
Jafar Armstrong 5 3 2 15
Brock Wright 0 0 0 3
Jahmir Smith 0 0 0 3
Kyren Williams 0 0 0 2
C'Bo Flemsiter 0 0 0 2
Joe Wilkins 0 0 0 2
George Takacs 0 1 0 1
Batted pass 0 1 0 1
Total 53 32 22 317
@ndjrs / Twitter

BOOK VERSUS HIS PREDECESSORS

The senior has now taken 1,405 snaps under center for the Irish. Here’s how his statistics match up to six of his predecessors who took that many snaps for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame QBs Through 1,444 Snaps, 2000-2019

Category QUINN CLAUSEN REES GOLSON KIZER BOOK
Category QUINN CLAUSEN REES GOLSON KIZER BOOK
Run plays 787 727 706 751 765 754
Yds gained from run 3067 2125 3330 3366 3890 3575
Yards per run attempt 3.9 2.9 4.7 4.5 5.1 4.7
Runs by QB (excluding sacks) 65 64 30 163 215 183
Yds gained from run by QB (excluding sacks) 221 173 45 859 1257 1087
Yards per QB run (excluding sacks) 3.4 2.7 1.5 5.3 5.8 5.9
Pass plays 657 717 738 693 679 690
Yds gained from pass 4237 4902 5284 5451 5686 5372
Completions 332 430 466 416 413 437
Completion % 50.5% 60.0% 63.1% 60.0% 60.8% 63.3%
Yards per comp 12.8 11.4 11.3 13.1 13.8 12.3
Yards per attempt 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.9 8.4 7.8
Total yards gained (run & pass) 7304 7027 8614 8817 9576 8947
3rd Down conversions by pass 41.8% 40.8% 43.0% 39.1%
Non-penalty first downs 338 342 425 436 429 414
First downs by pass 185 204 251 252 242 235
First downs by QB run 25 17 9 49 60 52
% of 1Ds accounted for 62.1% 64.6% 61.2% 69.0% 70.4% 69.3%
% of 1D runs accounted for by QB 16.3% 12.3% 5.2% 26.6% 32.1% 29.1%
Touchdowns 53 48 70 74 88 90
Touchdowns thrown 24 36 39 39 46 49
Touchdowns thrown % of all TDs 45.3% 75.0% 55.7% 52.7% 52.3% 54.4%
Touchdowns run 29 12 31 35 42 41
Touchdowns run by QB 3 2 1 14 18 8
% of total TDs that were run by QB 5.7% 4.2% 1.4% 18.9% 20.5% 8.9%
TDs by QB (arm or legs) 27 38 40 53 64 57
TDs by QB as % of total TDs 50.9% 79.2% 57.1% 71.6% 72.7% 63.3%
Interceptions 24 23 26 18 19 17
Interceptions per attempt 3.7% 3.2% 3.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5%
Fumbles 21 30 16 30 26 16
Fumbles lost 8 17 8 18 12 6
Fumbles by QB 8 9 8 17 9 6
Fumbles lost by QB 3 5 6 11 4 3
QB carries (including sacks) 99 118 51 198 259 218
Fumbles lost per QB carry 3.0% 4.2% 11.8% 5.6% 1.5% 1.4%
Sacks 35 54 21 35 44 35
Sacked per pass attempt 5.3% 7.5% 2.8% 5.1% 6.5% 5.1%
Negative yardage plays 138 169 127 126 140 135
Negative yardage plays by QB 44 61 27 53 64 48
Explosive pass plays (20+ yards) 52 64 75 89 87 87
Explosive run plays (12+ yards) 76 48 89 74 91 81
Explosive plays total 128 112 164 163 178 168
Explosive plays by QB run 7 0 1 19 28 23
Explosive plays by QB arms/legs 59 64 76 108 115 110
Explosive % generated by QB 46.1% 57.1% 46.3% 66.3% 64.6% 65.5%
First Down success rate 54.0% 50.2% 48.5% 48.5%
Second Down success rate 45.6% 49.1% 45.0% 43.3%
Third Down success rate 42.1% 41.2% 40.9% 40.1%
Fourth Down success rate 40.0% 50.0% 38.5% 60.0%
Overall success rate 48.1% 47.5% 45.2% 45.1%
2019 success rate 42.0%
@ndjrs / Twitter