:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65678350/1186626938.jpg.0.jpg)
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish steamrolled the Duke Blue Devils, 38-7, at Wallace Wade Stadium Saturday.
IT WAS OVER WHEN...
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19365080/Screen_Shot_2019_11_10_at_11.08.07_PM.png)
With 1:17 remaining in the third quarter and the score 28-7 Irish, the Blue Devils faced a second and 10 from their own 28 yard line. Quentin Harris dropped back, but his line decided to leave Notre Dame linebacker Asmar Bilal unblocked. Bilal clocked Harris as he released, causing the quarterback to nearly throw a pick to Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
It was at this point that Notre Dame reached 100 percent win probability.
SUCCESS RATE
Ian Book was 18-for-32 for 181 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His success rate was 36.4 percent, tied for the sixth best Book performance this year by this metric. It’s the 104th best performance of the Brian Kelly era among any quarterback who attempted at least 10 passes.
What is success rate?
“The goal of success rate is to create an on-base percentage-style efficiency measure,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote last year. “Depending on a given down and distance, each play is deemed successful or non-successful:
- First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
- Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
- Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.”
For quarterback performances, Connelly told me to consider only downs where a pass was attempted or a sack was recorded. (He’d also suggest adjusting for opponent, which I haven’t done.)
As for the entire offense, Notre Dame’s success rate was 44.6 percent (33 successful, 41 unsuccessful). That’s the 56th best performance in the Brian Kelly era by this metric and the fifth best this season.
BREAKING TACKLES/MISSED TACKLES
I had Jahmir Smith and Tony Jones Jr. breaking or dodging two tackles each, while Lawrence Keys freed himself from one tackle.
For the season, Jones Jr. has caused 24 broken or missed tackles. Book and wide receiver Chase Claypool are next best with eight tackles broken or missed each.
YARDS AFTER CONTACT
As I used to chart games for College Football Film Room, I use their guideline to calculate based on where the ball was when contact was made. It has to be substantial contact, when the runner is either slowed or in danger of being tackled.
Yards After Contact, 2019
| Ball carrier | Navy rushes | Navy yards after contact | Season yards after contact | Season total yards | % of total yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball carrier | Navy rushes | Navy yards after contact | Season yards after contact | Season total yards | % of total yards |
| ARMSTRONG | 7 | 6 | 48 | 70 | 69% |
| ASSAF | 0 | 0 | 19 | 23 | 83% |
| BOOK | 5 | 5 | 129 | 421 | 31% |
| CLARK | 0 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 33% |
| DAVIS | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 60% |
| FINKE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| FLEMISTER | 3 | 8 | 64 | 101 | 63% |
| J. SMITH | 1 | 2 | 129 | 182 | 71% |
| JONES JR. | 9 | 13 | 306 | 611 | 50% |
| JURKOVEC | 2 | 2 | 80 | 88 | 91% |
| KEYS | 1 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 22% |
| LENZY | 1 | 2 | 12 | 79 | 15% |
| WILLIAMS | 0 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 35% |
| YOUNG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 50% |
| Total | 29 | 38 | 824 | 1,698 | 72.9% |
YARDS AFTER THE CATCH
Yards After the Catch, 2019
| Ball carrier | Receptions vs. Navy | Yards vs. Navy | YAC vs. Navy | YAC season | Season rec yds | YAC as % of season total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball carrier | Receptions vs. Navy | Yards vs. Navy | YAC vs. Navy | YAC season | Season rec yds | YAC as % of season total |
| ARMSTRONG | 2 | 12 | 4 | 89 | 89 | 100.0% |
| CLAYPOOL | 7 | 117 | 53 | 285 | 768 | 37.1% |
| DAVIS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 124 | 76.6% |
| FINKE | 3 | 57 | 15 | 136 | 339 | 40.1% |
| FLEMISTER | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 13 | 138.5% |
| J. SMITH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 108.3% |
| JONES JR. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 57 | 78.9% |
| KEYS | 2 | 32 | 0 | 52 | 115 | 45.2% |
| KMET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 327 | 40.1% |
| LENZY | 2 | 87 | 24 | 68 | 199 | 34.2% |
| MCKINLEY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 268 | 42.2% |
| TAKACS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| TREMBLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 145 | 46.2% |
| WILLIAMS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 266.7% |
| WRIGHT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 45 | 60.0% |
| YOUNG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 21 | 114.3% |
| Total | 16 | 305 | 96 | 1171 | 2527 | 46.3% |
BOOK PASSING CHART
Ian Book Passing Chart, 2019
| Pass thrown... | vs. Navy | Season Total |
|---|---|---|
| Pass thrown... | vs. Navy | Season Total |
| At or behind LOS | 0-for-0, 0 yards | 46-for-60, 361 yards, 3 TDs |
| Left, 0-9 yards | 0-for-0, 0 yards | 28-for-38, 287 yards, 5 TDs |
| Middle, 0-9 yards | 2-for-3, 10 yards, 1 TD | 18-for-28, 194 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT |
| Right, 0-9 yards | 6-for-6, 67 yards, 1 TD | 37-for-59, 260 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT |
| Left, 10-19 yards | 1-for-1, 15 yards | 11-for-23, 233 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Middle, 10-19 yards | 0-for-2, 0 yards | 6-for-11, 95 yards, 4 TDs |
| Right, 10-19 yards | 0-for-2, 0 yards | 7-for-27, 138 yards, 1 INT |
| Left, 20+ yards | 2-for-2, 97 yards, 1 TD | 11-for-23, 355 yards, 1 TD |
| Mid, 20+ yards | 1-for-2, 47 yards, 1 TD | 4-for-12, 144 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT |
| Right, 20+ yards | 2-for-2, 48 yards, 1 TD | 9-for-20, 226 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT |
TARGET COUNT
Targets in the 2019 Season
| Receiver | Virginia Tech | Duke | Navy | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiver | Virginia Tech | Duke | Navy | Total |
| Chase Claypool | 14 | 7 | 9 | 83 |
| Cole Kmet | 9 | 5 | 2 | 43 |
| Chris Finke | 9 | 6 | 3 | 42 |
| Javon McKinley | 2 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Thrown away | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21 |
| Lawrence Keys III | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| Tony Jones Jr. | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| Michael Young | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Avery Davis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| Braden Lenzy | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| Jafar Armstrong | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jahmir Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Kyren Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| C'Bo Flemsiter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Joe Wilkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| George Takacs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Batted pass | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Total | 53 | 32 | 22 | 317 |
BOOK VERSUS HIS PREDECESSORS
The senior has now taken 1,405 snaps under center for the Irish. Here’s how his statistics match up to six of his predecessors who took that many snaps for Notre Dame.
Notre Dame QBs Through 1,444 Snaps, 2000-2019
| Category | QUINN | CLAUSEN | REES | GOLSON | KIZER | BOOK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | QUINN | CLAUSEN | REES | GOLSON | KIZER | BOOK |
| Run plays | 787 | 727 | 706 | 751 | 765 | 754 |
| Yds gained from run | 3067 | 2125 | 3330 | 3366 | 3890 | 3575 |
| Yards per run attempt | 3.9 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Runs by QB (excluding sacks) | 65 | 64 | 30 | 163 | 215 | 183 |
| Yds gained from run by QB (excluding sacks) | 221 | 173 | 45 | 859 | 1257 | 1087 |
| Yards per QB run (excluding sacks) | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Pass plays | 657 | 717 | 738 | 693 | 679 | 690 |
| Yds gained from pass | 4237 | 4902 | 5284 | 5451 | 5686 | 5372 |
| Completions | 332 | 430 | 466 | 416 | 413 | 437 |
| Completion % | 50.5% | 60.0% | 63.1% | 60.0% | 60.8% | 63.3% |
| Yards per comp | 12.8 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 13.8 | 12.3 |
| Yards per attempt | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 7.8 |
| Total yards gained (run & pass) | 7304 | 7027 | 8614 | 8817 | 9576 | 8947 |
| 3rd Down conversions by pass | 41.8% | 40.8% | 43.0% | 39.1% | ||
| Non-penalty first downs | 338 | 342 | 425 | 436 | 429 | 414 |
| First downs by pass | 185 | 204 | 251 | 252 | 242 | 235 |
| First downs by QB run | 25 | 17 | 9 | 49 | 60 | 52 |
| % of 1Ds accounted for | 62.1% | 64.6% | 61.2% | 69.0% | 70.4% | 69.3% |
| % of 1D runs accounted for by QB | 16.3% | 12.3% | 5.2% | 26.6% | 32.1% | 29.1% |
| Touchdowns | 53 | 48 | 70 | 74 | 88 | 90 |
| Touchdowns thrown | 24 | 36 | 39 | 39 | 46 | 49 |
| Touchdowns thrown % of all TDs | 45.3% | 75.0% | 55.7% | 52.7% | 52.3% | 54.4% |
| Touchdowns run | 29 | 12 | 31 | 35 | 42 | 41 |
| Touchdowns run by QB | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 18 | 8 |
| % of total TDs that were run by QB | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 18.9% | 20.5% | 8.9% |
| TDs by QB (arm or legs) | 27 | 38 | 40 | 53 | 64 | 57 |
| TDs by QB as % of total TDs | 50.9% | 79.2% | 57.1% | 71.6% | 72.7% | 63.3% |
| Interceptions | 24 | 23 | 26 | 18 | 19 | 17 |
| Interceptions per attempt | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% |
| Fumbles | 21 | 30 | 16 | 30 | 26 | 16 |
| Fumbles lost | 8 | 17 | 8 | 18 | 12 | 6 |
| Fumbles by QB | 8 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 6 |
| Fumbles lost by QB | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 3 |
| QB carries (including sacks) | 99 | 118 | 51 | 198 | 259 | 218 |
| Fumbles lost per QB carry | 3.0% | 4.2% | 11.8% | 5.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| Sacks | 35 | 54 | 21 | 35 | 44 | 35 |
| Sacked per pass attempt | 5.3% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| Negative yardage plays | 138 | 169 | 127 | 126 | 140 | 135 |
| Negative yardage plays by QB | 44 | 61 | 27 | 53 | 64 | 48 |
| Explosive pass plays (20+ yards) | 52 | 64 | 75 | 89 | 87 | 87 |
| Explosive run plays (12+ yards) | 76 | 48 | 89 | 74 | 91 | 81 |
| Explosive plays total | 128 | 112 | 164 | 163 | 178 | 168 |
| Explosive plays by QB run | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 23 |
| Explosive plays by QB arms/legs | 59 | 64 | 76 | 108 | 115 | 110 |
| Explosive % generated by QB | 46.1% | 57.1% | 46.3% | 66.3% | 64.6% | 65.5% |
| First Down success rate | 54.0% | 50.2% | 48.5% | 48.5% | ||
| Second Down success rate | 45.6% | 49.1% | 45.0% | 43.3% | ||
| Third Down success rate | 42.1% | 41.2% | 40.9% | 40.1% | ||
| Fourth Down success rate | 40.0% | 50.0% | 38.5% | 60.0% | ||
| Overall success rate | 48.1% | 47.5% | 45.2% | 45.1% | ||
| 2019 success rate | 42.0% |