IT WAS OVER WHEN...
The Irish played start to finish with a 100 percent win probability, according to the calculator.
Ian Book was 16-for-20 for 261 yards, 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions or fumbles. His success rate was 65 percent, the best of his career.
What is success rate?
“The goal of success rate is to create an on-base percentage-style efficiency measure,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote last year. “Depending on a given down and distance, each play is deemed successful or non-successful:
- First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
- Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
- Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.”
For quarterback performances, Connelly told me to consider only downs where a pass was attempted or a sack was recorded. (He’d also suggest adjusting for opponent, which I haven’t done.)
Book’s performance was the sixth best of Brian Kelly’s tenure under this metric. The top five performances are: Malik Zaire versus the 2015 Texas Longhorns (69.6 percent); Tommy Rees versus the 2013 Air Force Falcons (69.6 percent); Everett Golson versus the 2012 Miami-Florida Hurricanes (68.2 percent); Golson versus the 2012 Boston College Eagles (66.7 percent); and DeShone Kizer versus the 2015 Massachusetts Minutemen (65.2 percent).
The Irish ran 61 offensive plays Saturday, with 38 being successful. That 62.3 percent success rate as an offense is fifth best in the Kelly era, behind the 2013, 2011 and 2012 games against the Navy Midshipmen (71.4, 65 and 63.8 percent, respectively) and the 2011 game against Air Force (63.1 percent).
BREAKING TACKLES/MISSED TACKLES
I counted nine tackles that Irish athletes either broke or where the Bowling Green player outright missed a legitimate opportunity to tackle the offensive player.
- Book: 2 rushes, 5 yards; 1 broken/missed tackle
- Running back C’Borius Flemister: 8 rushes, 30 yards; 1 broken/missed tackle
- Running back Tony Jones Jr: 7 rushes, 102 yards; 2 broken/missed tackles
- Quarterback Phil Jurkovec: 4 rushes, 42 yards; 3 broken/missed tackles
- Wide receiver Javon McKinley: 5 catches, 104 yards; 1 missed tackle created
- Wide receiver Tommy Tremble: 4 catches, 38 yards; 1 broken/missed tackle
YARDS AFTER CONTACT
As I used to chart games for College Football Film Room, I use their guideline to calculate based on where the ball was when contact was made. It has to be substantial contact, when the runner is either slowed or in danger of being tackled.
- Mick Assaf: 4 rushes, 15 yards; 9 yards after contact
- Book: 1 yard after contact
- Brendon Clark: 1 rush, 9 yards; 2 yards after contact
- Avery Davis: 3 rushes, 0 yards; 3 yards after contact
- Flemister: 19 yards after contact
- Jones Jr.: 18 yards after contact
- Jurkovec: 36 yards after contact
- Braden Lenzy: 1 rush, 3 yards; 3 yards after contact
- Jahmir Smith: 3 rushes, 29 yards; 14 yards after contact
YARDS AFTER THE CATCH
Total yards minus air yards.
- Chase Claypool: 3 catches for 61 yards; 26 yards after the catch
- Davis: 3 catches for 39 yards; 16 yards after the catch
- Chris Finke: 1 catch for 24 yards; 3 yards after the catch
- Cole Kmet: 2 catches for 31 yards; 18 yards after the catch
- Lenzy: 1 catch for 5 yards; 1 yard after the catch
- McKinley: 27 yards after the catch
- Tremble: 13 yards after the catch
- Brock Wright: 1 catch for 40 yards; 26 yards after the catch
- Michael Young: 1 catch for negative 2 yards; 0 yards after the catch
BOOK PASSING CHART
All passes attempted from the shotgun.
At or behind line of scrimmage: 6-of-6, 31 yards, 2 first downs, 1 touchdown
Throws left, 0-9 yards: 0-for-0, 0 yards
Throws middle, 0-9 yards: 1-for-2, 19 yards, 1 first down, 1 drop (by McKinley)
Throws right, 0-9 yards: 1-for-1, 6 yards
Throws left, 10-19 yards: 2-for-3, 63 yards, 2 first downs, 1 drop (by Claypool)
Throws middle, 10-19 yards: 2-for-2, 38 yards, 2 first downs, 2 touchdowns
Throws right, 10-19 yards: 0-for-0, 0 yards
Throws left, 20 or more yards: 2-for-2, 45 yards, 2 first downs
Throws middle, 20 or more yards: 1-for-3, 34 yards, 1 first down, 1 touchdown
Throws right, 20 or more yards: 1-for-1, 25 yards, 1 first down, 1 touchdown
Book attempted 17 of his 20 passes when here was no pressure from the Bowling Green defense and he was standing in the pocket. The quarterback was 14-of-17 for 236 yards, 10 first downs and five touchdowns in those instances. In the three times the Falcons managed to get in Book’s face, the quarterback went 2-for-3 for 25 yards with one first down. The incompletion was a drop.
I counted 22 instances when Book dropped back with the intention of passing. He rushed for five yards on those two instances when he dropped back, but didn’t throw.
TARGET COUNT (SEASON)
Targets in the 2019 Season
|Lawrence Keys III||1||1||2||16|
|Tony Jones Jr.||0||2||1||15|
BOOK VERSUS HIS PREDECESSORS
The senior has now taken 1,120 snaps under center for the Irish. Here’s how his statistics match up to six of his predecessors who took that many snaps for Notre Dame.
Notre Dame Quarterbacks Through 1,120 Snaps, 2000-2019
|Yds gained from run||3045||2302||1471||2543||2696||2992||2781|
|Yards per run attempt||3.87||3.86||2.67||4.72||4.55||4.98||4.70|
|Runs by QB (excluding sacks)||228||52||53||27||126||170||138|
|Yds gained from run by QB (excluding sacks)||1042||153||143||42||634||947||801|
|Yards per QB run (excluding sacks)||4.6||2.9||2.7||1.6||5.0||5.6||5.8|
|Yds gained from pass||2062||3378||3533||4012||4052||4590||4331|
|Yards per comp||11.9||13.0||10.7||10.8||12.7||14.3||12.3|
|Yards per attempt||6.2||6.4||6.2||6.9||7.7||8.8||8.2|
|Total yards gained (run & pass)||5107||5680||5004||6555||6748||7582||7112|
|3rd Down conversions by pass||42.8%||39.3%||43.4%||41.2%|
|Non-penalty first downs||235||257||246||331||339||329||331|
|First downs by pass||87||145||150||198||196||193||191|
|First downs by QB run||46||21||16||8||38||44||37|
|% of 1Ds accounted for||56.6%||64.6%||67.5%||62.2%||69.0%||72.0%||68.9%|
|% of 1D runs accounted for by QB||31.1%||18.8%||16.7%||6.0%||26.6%||32.4%||26.4%|
|Touchdowns thrown % of all TDs||24.2%||43.9%||72.7%||56.1%||50.9%||50.0%||50.0%|
|Touchdowns run by QB||5||3||2||0||10||17||6|
|% of total TDs that were run by QB||15.2%||7.3%||6.1%||0.0%||18.9%||23.6%||8.3%|
|TDs by QB (arm or legs)||13||21||26||32||37||53||42|
|TDs by QB as % of total TDs||39.4%||51.2%||78.8%||56.1%||69.8%||73.6%||58.3%|
|Interceptions per attempt||2.7%||3.8%||3.2%||3.8%||1.9%||2.9%||2.5%|
|Fumbles by QB||21||8||8||8||14||7||6|
|Fumbles lost by QB||9||3||4||6||9||4||3|
|QB carries (including sacks)||228||77||99||43||151||206||170|
|Fumbles lost per QB carry||3.9%||3.9%||4.0%||14.0%||6.0%||1.9%||1.8%|
|Sacked per pass attempt||12.0%||5.0%||8.1%||2.8%||4.7%||6.9%||6.1%|
|Negative yardage plays||146||107||132||98||95||116||106|
|Negative yardage plays by QB||75||34||51||22||37||52||39|
|Explosive pass plays (20+ yards)||27||40||45||54||60||68||71|
|Explosive run plays (12+ yards)||66||60||34||70||58||69||65|
|Explosive plays total||93||100||79||124||118||137||136|
|Explosive plays by QB run||30||5||0||1||15||21||15|
|Explosive plays by QB arms/legs||57||45||45||55||75||89||86|
|% of explosive plays generated by QB||61.3%||45.0%||57.0%||44.4%||63.6%||65.0%||63.2%|
|First Down success rate||38.3%||53.5%||51.9%||48.7%||49.8%|
|Second Down success rate||35.4%||46.2%||53.0%||47.7%||45.0%|
|Third Down success rate||29.5%||42.9%||38.9%||41.2%||41.3%|
|Fourth Down success rate||36.4%||66.7%||50.0%||33.3%||63.2%|
|Overall success rate||23.7%||48.4%||48.8%||46.1%||46.6%|
|2019 success rate||44.2%|