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The Michigan Wolverines dominated the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 45-14, at Michigan Stadium Saturday.
IT WAS OVER WHEN...
Shea Patterson found Mike Sainristil running free 17 yards from the line of scrimmage, with Jalen Elliott at least five yards away from him. Elliott would eventually push the receiver out of bounds at the 16-yard line after a gain of 34. But, the Wolverines, up 17 points and in the red zone again with 12 minutes remaining in the final quarter, had hit 100 percent win probability.
SUCCESS RATE
Ian Book was 8-for-25 for 73 yards, one touchdown and zero turnovers. His success rate was 19.2 percent, the lowest of any Notre Dame quarterback in a single Brian Kelly-era game (minimum 10 attempts). Brandon Wimbush had a 12.5 percent success rate in the Citrus Bowl against LSU, but attempted just eight passes before Book replaced him.
What is success rate?
“The goal of success rate is to create an on-base percentage-style efficiency measure,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote last year. “Depending on a given down and distance, each play is deemed successful or non-successful:
- First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
- Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
- Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.”
For quarterback performances, Connelly told me to consider only downs where a pass was attempted or a sack was recorded. (He’d also suggest adjusting for opponent, which I haven’t done.)
Book’s success rate in 2019 so far is 39.8 percent.
Notre Dame ran 60 offensive plays, of which 15 were successful by this metric. That 25 percent success rate is third-lowest in the Brian Kelly era (123 games), below the 2016 hurricane game against the N.C. State Wolfpack (23.4 percent) and the 2017 game against the Georgia Bulldogs (22.1 percent).
BREAKING TACKLES/MISSED TACKLES
I charted just one tackle that Michigan missed — and it’s a debatable one.
Midway through the third quarter, Book scrambled to avoid Wolverines pressure and was about to be met by linebacker Jordan Glasgow at the line of scrimmage. Book gave Glasgow a little shake of the shoulders and the graduate student fell down on the wet turf as the senior quarterback ran for nine additional yards.
YARDS AFTER CONTACT
As I used to chart games for College Football Film Room, I use their guideline to calculate based on where the ball was when contact was made. It has to be substantial contact, when the runner is either slowed or in danger of being tackled.
Yards After Contact, 2019
| Ball carrier | Navy rushes | Navy yards after contact | Season yards after contact | Season total yards | % of total yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball carrier | Navy rushes | Navy yards after contact | Season yards after contact | Season total yards | % of total yards |
| ARMSTRONG | 7 | 6 | 48 | 70 | 69% |
| ASSAF | 0 | 0 | 19 | 23 | 83% |
| BOOK | 5 | 5 | 129 | 421 | 31% |
| CLARK | 0 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 33% |
| DAVIS | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 60% |
| FINKE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| FLEMISTER | 3 | 8 | 64 | 101 | 63% |
| J. SMITH | 1 | 2 | 129 | 182 | 71% |
| JONES JR. | 9 | 13 | 306 | 611 | 50% |
| JURKOVEC | 2 | 2 | 80 | 88 | 91% |
| KEYS | 1 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 22% |
| LENZY | 1 | 2 | 12 | 79 | 15% |
| WILLIAMS | 0 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 35% |
| YOUNG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 50% |
| Total | 29 | 38 | 824 | 1,698 | 72.9% |
YARDS AFTER THE CATCH
Total yards minus air yards.
Yards After the Catch, 2019
| Ball carrier | Receptions vs. Navy | Yards vs. Navy | YAC vs. Navy | YAC season | Season rec yds | YAC as % of season total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball carrier | Receptions vs. Navy | Yards vs. Navy | YAC vs. Navy | YAC season | Season rec yds | YAC as % of season total |
| ARMSTRONG | 2 | 12 | 4 | 89 | 89 | 100.0% |
| CLAYPOOL | 7 | 117 | 53 | 285 | 768 | 37.1% |
| DAVIS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 124 | 76.6% |
| FINKE | 3 | 57 | 15 | 136 | 339 | 40.1% |
| FLEMISTER | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 13 | 138.5% |
| J. SMITH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 108.3% |
| JONES JR. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 57 | 78.9% |
| KEYS | 2 | 32 | 0 | 52 | 115 | 45.2% |
| KMET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 327 | 40.1% |
| LENZY | 2 | 87 | 24 | 68 | 199 | 34.2% |
| MCKINLEY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 268 | 42.2% |
| TAKACS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| TREMBLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 145 | 46.2% |
| WILLIAMS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 266.7% |
| WRIGHT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 45 | 60.0% |
| YOUNG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 21 | 114.3% |
| Total | 16 | 305 | 96 | 1171 | 2527 | 46.3% |
BOOK PASSING CHART
Ian Book Passing Chart, 2019
| Pass thrown... | vs. Navy | Season Total |
|---|---|---|
| Pass thrown... | vs. Navy | Season Total |
| At or behind LOS | 0-for-0, 0 yards | 46-for-60, 361 yards, 3 TDs |
| Left, 0-9 yards | 0-for-0, 0 yards | 28-for-38, 287 yards, 5 TDs |
| Middle, 0-9 yards | 2-for-3, 10 yards, 1 TD | 18-for-28, 194 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT |
| Right, 0-9 yards | 6-for-6, 67 yards, 1 TD | 37-for-59, 260 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT |
| Left, 10-19 yards | 1-for-1, 15 yards | 11-for-23, 233 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Middle, 10-19 yards | 0-for-2, 0 yards | 6-for-11, 95 yards, 4 TDs |
| Right, 10-19 yards | 0-for-2, 0 yards | 7-for-27, 138 yards, 1 INT |
| Left, 20+ yards | 2-for-2, 97 yards, 1 TD | 11-for-23, 355 yards, 1 TD |
| Mid, 20+ yards | 1-for-2, 47 yards, 1 TD | 4-for-12, 144 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT |
| Right, 20+ yards | 2-for-2, 48 yards, 1 TD | 9-for-20, 226 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT |
TARGET COUNT (SEASON)
Targets in the 2019 Season
| Receiver | Virginia Tech | Duke | Navy | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiver | Virginia Tech | Duke | Navy | Total |
| Chase Claypool | 14 | 7 | 9 | 83 |
| Cole Kmet | 9 | 5 | 2 | 43 |
| Chris Finke | 9 | 6 | 3 | 42 |
| Javon McKinley | 2 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Thrown away | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21 |
| Lawrence Keys III | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| Tony Jones Jr. | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| Michael Young | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Avery Davis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| Braden Lenzy | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| Jafar Armstrong | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jahmir Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Kyren Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| C'Bo Flemsiter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Joe Wilkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| George Takacs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Batted pass | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Total | 53 | 32 | 22 | 317 |
BOOK VERSUS HIS PREDECESSORS
The senior has now taken 1,247 snaps under center for the Irish. Here’s how his statistics match up to six of his predecessors who took that many snaps for Notre Dame.
Notre Dame QBs Through 1,247 Snaps, 2000-2019
| Quarterback | HOLIDAY | QUINN | CLAUSEN | REES | GOLSON | KIZER | BOOK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | HOLIDAY | QUINN | CLAUSEN | REES | GOLSON | KIZER | BOOK |
| Run plays | 853 | 673 | 625 | 625 | 652 | 657 | 662 |
| Yds gained from run | 3248 | 2604 | 1770 | 2949 | 3014 | 3287 | 3119 |
| Yards per run attempt | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Runs by QB (excluding sacks) | 243 | 55 | 57 | 29 | 138 | 183 | 154 |
| Yds gained from run by QB (excluding sacks) | 1148 | 168 | 164 | 44 | 701 | 1057 | 866 |
| Yards per QB run (excluding sacks) | 4.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| Pass plays | 394 | 574 | 622 | 622 | 595 | 590 | 585 |
| Yds gained from pass | 2504 | 3695 | 3855 | 4347 | 4528 | 5035 | 4569 |
| Completions | 199 | 288 | 366 | 397 | 361 | 362 | 376 |
| Completion % | 50.5% | 50.2% | 58.8% | 63.8% | 60.7% | 61.4% | 64.3% |
| Yards per comp | 12.6 | 12.8 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 13.9 | 12.2 |
| Yards per attempt | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Total yards gained (run & pass) | 5752 | 6299 | 5625 | 7296 | 7542 | 8322 | 7688 |
| 3rd Down conversions by pass | 42.5% | 38.7% | 42.9% | 39.4% | |||
| Non-penalty first downs | 261 | 291 | 285 | 364 | 373 | 365 | 359 |
| First downs by pass | 102 | 162 | 168 | 211 | 210 | 214 | 201 |
| First downs by QB run | 52 | 23 | 16 | 8 | 43 | 49 | 43 |
| % of 1Ds accounted for | 59.0% | 63.6% | 64.6% | 60.2% | 67.8% | 72.1% | 68.0% |
| % of 1D runs accounted for by QB | 32.7% | 17.8% | 13.7% | 5.2% | 26.4% | 32.5% | 27.2% |
| Touchdowns | 40 | 46 | 36 | 62 | 61 | 76 | 76 |
| Touchdowns thrown | 13 | 19 | 25 | 34 | 33 | 39 | 38 |
| Touchdowns thrown % of all TDs | 32.5% | 41.3% | 69.4% | 54.8% | 54.1% | 51.3% | 50.0% |
| Touchdowns run | 27 | 27 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 37 | 38 |
| Touchdowns run by QB | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 7 |
| % of total TDs that were run by QB | 12.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 9.2% |
| TDs by QB (arm or legs) | 18 | 22 | 27 | 35 | 44 | 56 | 45 |
| TDs by QB as % of total TDs | 45.0% | 47.8% | 75.0% | 56.5% | 72.1% | 73.7% | 59.2% |
| Interceptions | 12 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 12 | 17 | 13 |
| Interceptions per attempt | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| Fumbles | 37 | 21 | 29 | 16 | 24 | 25 | 15 |
| Fumbles lost | 21 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 5 |
| Fumbles by QB | 22 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 6 |
| Fumbles lost by QB | 10 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| QB carries (including sacks) | 243 | 81 | 105 | 47 | 165 | 222 | 188 |
| Fumbles lost per QB carry | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| Sacks | 46 | 27 | 48 | 18 | 27 | 39 | 34 |
| Sacked per pass attempt | 11.7% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% |
| Negative yardage plays | 159 | 116 | 145 | 112 | 105 | 125 | 120 |
| Negative yardage plays by QB | 81 | 35 | 53 | 24 | 41 | 55 | 43 |
| Explosive pass plays (20+ yards) | 34 | 44 | 46 | 60 | 69 | 75 | 73 |
| Explosive run plays (12+ yards) | 72 | 67 | 38 | 80 | 66 | 76 | 72 |
| Explosive plays total | 106 | 111 | 84 | 140 | 135 | 151 | 145 |
| Explosive plays by QB run | 34 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 22 | 17 |
| Explosive plays by QB arms/legs | 68 | 49 | 46 | 61 | 86 | 97 | 90 |
| Explosive % generated by QB | 64.2% | 44.1% | 54.8% | 43.6% | 63.7% | 64.2% | 62.1% |
| First Down success rate | 38.3% | 54.4% | 50.8% | 48.4% | 48.6% | ||
| Second Down success rate | 35.4% | 45.1% | 51.1% | 46.3% | 43.6% | ||
| Third Down success rate | 29.5% | 42.4% | 40.0% | 40.8% | 39.3% | ||
| Fourth Down success rate | 36.4% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 57.1% | ||
| Overall success rate | 21.8% | 48.3% | 48.1% | 45.5% | 44.9% | ||
| 2019 success rate | 39.8% |