Notre Dame Football: A Deeper Statistical Look at the Irish Offense at Midseason

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish beat the USC Trojans, 30-27, at Notre Dame Stadium last Saturday. Here’s a closer look at that game and the Irish offense through its first six games.

THE USC GAME WAS OVER WHEN...

Ian Book snapped the ball on 3rd and 12, took a knee and let the last 13 seconds run off the clock. The Irish had a 78.8 percent chance to win the game as 10 1/2 point favorites, and that number never dipped before 50 percent during the game.

SUCCESS RATE

Ian Book was 17-for-32 for 165 yards, one touchdown and no turnovers. His success rate was 36.4 percent, the second worst of his career and the 101st best performance out of 126 instances in the Brian Kelly era when a quarterback attempted at least 10 passes.

What is success rate?

“The goal of success rate is to create an on-base percentage-style efficiency measure,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote last year. “Depending on a given down and distance, each play is deemed successful or non-successful:

• First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
• Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
• Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.”

For quarterback performances, Connelly told me to consider only downs where a pass was attempted or a sack was recorded. (He’d also suggest adjusting for opponent, which I haven’t done.)

Book’s success rate in 2019 so far is 42.8 percent.

The Irish’s offense had a success rate of 46.3 percent against USC (37 successful, 43 unsuccessful). It was the 49th best performance of the Brian Kelly era (122 games) by this metric.

For the season, Notre Dame’s offense has a success rate of 47.7 percent.

BREAKING TACKLES/MISSED TACKLES

YARDS AFTER CONTACT

As I used to chart games for College Football Film Room, I use their guideline to calculate based on where the ball was when contact was made. It has to be substantial contact, when the runner is either slowed or in danger of being tackled.

YARDS AFTER THE CATCH

Total yards minus air yards.

BOOK PASSING CHART

Against USC, Ian Book was 16-for-31 for 166 yards and one touchdown when throwing from the shotgun. He was 1-for-1 for negative 1 yards when starting the play under center.

Book was 12-for-21 for 114 yards and a touchdown when standing in the pocket against the Trojans and not facing pressure. The Irish quarterback was 1-1 for 2 yards when outside the pocket, but not under pressure. He was 4-for-10 for 49 yards when the Trojans got pressure on Book. The senior dropped back five times with the intention of throwing and ran instead. He gained 35 yards.

For the season, Book is:

• 93-for-131 (71 percent) for 1,226 yards, 12 touchdowns and 1 interception when he is not under pressure
• 15-for-40 (37.5 percent) for 191 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception when pressured

TARGET COUNT (SEASON)

BOOK VERSUS HIS PREDECESSORS

The senior has now taken 1,200 snaps under center for the Irish. Here’s how his statistics match up to six of his predecessors who took that many snaps for Notre Dame.