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Notre Dame Football: A Deeper Statistical Look at the Irish Offense at Midseason

Missed tackles, target counts, yards after catch, passing charts...oh my!

USC v Notre Dame Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish beat the USC Trojans, 30-27, at Notre Dame Stadium last Saturday. Here’s a closer look at that game and the Irish offense through its first six games.

THE USC GAME WAS OVER WHEN...

Ian Book snapped the ball on 3rd and 12, took a knee and let the last 13 seconds run off the clock. The Irish had a 78.8 percent chance to win the game as 10 1/2 point favorites, and that number never dipped before 50 percent during the game.

SUCCESS RATE

Ian Book was 17-for-32 for 165 yards, one touchdown and no turnovers. His success rate was 36.4 percent, the second worst of his career and the 101st best performance out of 126 instances in the Brian Kelly era when a quarterback attempted at least 10 passes.

What is success rate?

“The goal of success rate is to create an on-base percentage-style efficiency measure,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote last year. “Depending on a given down and distance, each play is deemed successful or non-successful:

  • First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
  • Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
  • Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.”

For quarterback performances, Connelly told me to consider only downs where a pass was attempted or a sack was recorded. (He’d also suggest adjusting for opponent, which I haven’t done.)

Book’s success rate in 2019 so far is 42.8 percent.

The Irish’s offense had a success rate of 46.3 percent against USC (37 successful, 43 unsuccessful). It was the 49th best performance of the Brian Kelly era (122 games) by this metric.

For the season, Notre Dame’s offense has a success rate of 47.7 percent.

BREAKING TACKLES/MISSED TACKLES

Breaking/missed tackles forced, 2019

Ball carrier USC rushes USC receptions USC broke/missed tackles Season broke/missed tackles
Ball carrier USC rushes USC receptions USC broke/missed tackles Season broke/missed tackles
ARMSTRONG 1 0 0 1
ASSAF 0 0 0 2
BOOK 12 0 2 5
CLARK 0 0 0 1
CLAYPOOL 0 3 0 7
FINKE 1 5 1 1
FLEMISTER 0 0 0 6
J. SMITH 5 0 2 3
JONES JR. 25 0 9 22
JURKOVEC 0 0 0 7
KMET 0 6 1 3
LENZY 1 1 0 2
MCKINLEY 0 0 0 6
TREMBLE 0 0 0 1
YOUNG 0 2 0 0
Total 45 17 15 67
@ndjrs / Twitter

YARDS AFTER CONTACT

As I used to chart games for College Football Film Room, I use their guideline to calculate based on where the ball was when contact was made. It has to be substantial contact, when the runner is either slowed or in danger of being tackled.

Yards After Contact, 2019

Ball carrier Navy rushes Navy yards after contact Season yards after contact Season total yards % of total yards
Ball carrier Navy rushes Navy yards after contact Season yards after contact Season total yards % of total yards
ARMSTRONG 7 6 48 70 69%
ASSAF 0 0 19 23 83%
BOOK 5 5 129 421 31%
CLARK 0 0 11 33 33%
DAVIS 0 0 6 10 60%
FINKE 0 0 0 7 0%
FLEMISTER 3 8 64 101 63%
J. SMITH 1 2 129 182 71%
JONES JR. 9 13 306 611 50%
JURKOVEC 2 2 80 88 91%
KEYS 1 0 10 45 22%
LENZY 1 2 12 79 15%
WILLIAMS 0 0 9 26 35%
YOUNG 0 0 1 2 50%
Total 29 38 824 1,698 72.9%
@ndjrs / Twitter

YARDS AFTER THE CATCH

Total yards minus air yards.

Yards After the Catch, 2019

Ball carrier Receptions vs. Navy Yards vs. Navy YAC vs. Navy YAC season Season rec yds YAC as % of season total
Ball carrier Receptions vs. Navy Yards vs. Navy YAC vs. Navy YAC season Season rec yds YAC as % of season total
ARMSTRONG 2 12 4 89 89 100.0%
CLAYPOOL 7 117 53 285 768 37.1%
DAVIS 0 0 0 95 124 76.6%
FINKE 3 57 15 136 339 40.1%
FLEMISTER 0 0 0 18 13 138.5%
J. SMITH 0 0 0 13 12 108.3%
JONES JR. 0 0 0 45 57 78.9%
KEYS 2 32 0 52 115 45.2%
KMET 0 0 0 131 327 40.1%
LENZY 2 87 24 68 199 34.2%
MCKINLEY 0 0 0 113 268 42.2%
TAKACS 0 0 0 0 2 0.0%
TREMBLE 0 0 0 67 145 46.2%
WILLIAMS 0 0 0 8 3 266.7%
WRIGHT 0 0 0 27 45 60.0%
YOUNG 0 0 0 24 21 114.3%
Total 16 305 96 1171 2527 46.3%
Total yards minus air yards. @ndjrs / Twitter

BOOK PASSING CHART

Against USC, Ian Book was 16-for-31 for 166 yards and one touchdown when throwing from the shotgun. He was 1-for-1 for negative 1 yards when starting the play under center.

Ian Book Passing Chart, 2019

Pass thrown... vs. Navy Season Total
Pass thrown... vs. Navy Season Total
At or behind LOS 0-for-0, 0 yards 46-for-60, 361 yards, 3 TDs
Left, 0-9 yards 0-for-0, 0 yards 28-for-38, 287 yards, 5 TDs
Middle, 0-9 yards 2-for-3, 10 yards, 1 TD 18-for-28, 194 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Right, 0-9 yards 6-for-6, 67 yards, 1 TD 37-for-59, 260 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Left, 10-19 yards 1-for-1, 15 yards 11-for-23, 233 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Middle, 10-19 yards 0-for-2, 0 yards 6-for-11, 95 yards, 4 TDs
Right, 10-19 yards 0-for-2, 0 yards 7-for-27, 138 yards, 1 INT
Left, 20+ yards 2-for-2, 97 yards, 1 TD 11-for-23, 355 yards, 1 TD
Mid, 20+ yards 1-for-2, 47 yards, 1 TD 4-for-12, 144 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Right, 20+ yards 2-for-2, 48 yards, 1 TD 9-for-20, 226 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
@ndjrs / Twitter

Book was 12-for-21 for 114 yards and a touchdown when standing in the pocket against the Trojans and not facing pressure. The Irish quarterback was 1-1 for 2 yards when outside the pocket, but not under pressure. He was 4-for-10 for 49 yards when the Trojans got pressure on Book. The senior dropped back five times with the intention of throwing and ran instead. He gained 35 yards.

For the season, Book is:

  • 93-for-131 (71 percent) for 1,226 yards, 12 touchdowns and 1 interception when he is not under pressure
  • 15-for-40 (37.5 percent) for 191 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception when pressured

TARGET COUNT (SEASON)

Targets in the 2019 Season

Receiver Virginia Tech Duke Navy Total
Receiver Virginia Tech Duke Navy Total
Chase Claypool 14 7 9 83
Cole Kmet 9 5 2 43
Chris Finke 9 6 3 42
Javon McKinley 2 3 0 20
Tommy Tremble 1 1 1 17
Thrown away 7 1 0 21
Lawrence Keys III 1 1 2 16
Tony Jones Jr. 0 2 1 15
Michael Young 0 0 0 9
Avery Davis 3 1 0 11
Braden Lenzy 2 0 2 11
Jafar Armstrong 5 3 2 15
Brock Wright 0 0 0 3
Jahmir Smith 0 0 0 3
Kyren Williams 0 0 0 2
C'Bo Flemsiter 0 0 0 2
Joe Wilkins 0 0 0 2
George Takacs 0 1 0 1
Batted pass 0 1 0 1
Total 53 32 22 317
@ndjrs / Twitter

BOOK VERSUS HIS PREDECESSORS

The senior has now taken 1,200 snaps under center for the Irish. Here’s how his statistics match up to six of his predecessors who took that many snaps for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame QBs Through 1,247 Snaps, 2000-2019

Quarterback HOLIDAY QUINN CLAUSEN REES GOLSON KIZER BOOK
Quarterback HOLIDAY QUINN CLAUSEN REES GOLSON KIZER BOOK
Run plays 853 673 625 625 652 657 662
Yds gained from run 3248 2604 1770 2949 3014 3287 3119
Yards per run attempt 3.8 3.9 2.8 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.7
Runs by QB (excluding sacks) 243 55 57 29 138 183 154
Yds gained from run by QB (excluding sacks) 1148 168 164 44 701 1057 866
Yards per QB run (excluding sacks) 4.7 3.1 2.9 1.5 5.1 5.8 5.6
Pass plays 394 574 622 622 595 590 585
Yds gained from pass 2504 3695 3855 4347 4528 5035 4569
Completions 199 288 366 397 361 362 376
Completion % 50.5% 50.2% 58.8% 63.8% 60.7% 61.4% 64.3%
Yards per comp 12.6 12.8 10.5 10.9 12.5 13.9 12.2
Yards per attempt 6.4 6.4 6.2 7.0 7.6 8.5 7.8
Total yards gained (run & pass) 5752 6299 5625 7296 7542 8322 7688
3rd Down conversions by pass 42.5% 38.7% 42.9% 39.4%
Non-penalty first downs 261 291 285 364 373 365 359
First downs by pass 102 162 168 211 210 214 201
First downs by QB run 52 23 16 8 43 49 43
% of 1Ds accounted for 59.0% 63.6% 64.6% 60.2% 67.8% 72.1% 68.0%
% of 1D runs accounted for by QB 32.7% 17.8% 13.7% 5.2% 26.4% 32.5% 27.2%
Touchdowns 40 46 36 62 61 76 76
Touchdowns thrown 13 19 25 34 33 39 38
Touchdowns thrown % of all TDs 32.5% 41.3% 69.4% 54.8% 54.1% 51.3% 50.0%
Touchdowns run 27 27 11 28 28 37 38
Touchdowns run by QB 5 3 2 1 11 17 7
% of total TDs that were run by QB 12.5% 6.5% 5.6% 1.6% 18.0% 22.4% 9.2%
TDs by QB (arm or legs) 18 22 27 35 44 56 45
TDs by QB as % of total TDs 45.0% 47.8% 75.0% 56.5% 72.1% 73.7% 59.2%
Interceptions 12 22 21 23 12 17 13
Interceptions per attempt 3.0% 3.8% 3.4% 3.7% 2.0% 2.9% 2.2%
Fumbles 37 21 29 16 24 25 15
Fumbles lost 21 8 16 8 14 12 5
Fumbles by QB 22 8 9 8 15 8 6
Fumbles lost by QB 10 3 5 6 9 4 3
QB carries (including sacks) 243 81 105 47 165 222 188
Fumbles lost per QB carry 4.1% 3.7% 4.8% 12.8% 5.5% 1.8% 1.6%
Sacks 46 27 48 18 27 39 34
Sacked per pass attempt 11.7% 4.7% 7.7% 2.9% 4.5% 6.6% 5.8%
Negative yardage plays 159 116 145 112 105 125 120
Negative yardage plays by QB 81 35 53 24 41 55 43
Explosive pass plays (20+ yards) 34 44 46 60 69 75 73
Explosive run plays (12+ yards) 72 67 38 80 66 76 72
Explosive plays total 106 111 84 140 135 151 145
Explosive plays by QB run 34 5 0 1 17 22 17
Explosive plays by QB arms/legs 68 49 46 61 86 97 90
Explosive % generated by QB 64.2% 44.1% 54.8% 43.6% 63.7% 64.2% 62.1%
First Down success rate 38.3% 54.4% 50.8% 48.4% 48.6%
Second Down success rate 35.4% 45.1% 51.1% 46.3% 43.6%
Third Down success rate 29.5% 42.4% 40.0% 40.8% 39.3%
Fourth Down success rate 36.4% 66.7% 50.0% 33.3% 57.1%
Overall success rate 21.8% 48.3% 48.1% 45.5% 44.9%
2019 success rate 39.8%
@ndjrs / Twitter