IT WAS OVER WHEN.... With 10:34 remaining in the fourth quarter and the Irish leading by 11, Ian Book handed off the ball to Tony Jones Jr., who scampered left for 30 yards — 20 of them untouched — for a touchdown.
The Irish then led, 35-17, and had a 100 percent win probability, according to the calculator.
SUCCESS RATE: Book was 17-for-25 for 165 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. His success rate, however, was 34.5 percent — his second worst performance as a starter.
What is success rate?
“The goal of success rate is to create an on-base percentage-style efficiency measure,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote last year. “Depending on a given down and distance, each play is deemed successful or non-successful:
- First downs: gaining at least 50 percent of necessary yardage (usually 5 yards) is successful.
- Second downs: gaining at least 70 percent of necessary yardage is successful.
- Third or fourth downs: gaining at least 100 percent of necessary yardage is successful.”
For quarterback performances, Connelly told me to consider only downs where a pass was attempted or a sack was recorded. (He’d also suggest adjusting for opponent, which I haven’t done.)
Notre Dame ran 62 offensive plays that were not negated by penalty. Of those, 24 were successful under this metric and 38 were not. Here are similar Notre Dame performances, according to this metric:
- A 2018 win vs. Virginia Tech: 26 successful, 41 unsuccessful (38.8 percent)
- A 2015 win vs. Wake Forest: 19 successful, 30 unsuccessful (38.8 percent)
- A 2019 win vs. Virginia: 38.7 percent
- A 2017 win vs. North Carolina: 34 successful, 54 unsuccessful (Book’s first career start) (38.6 percent)
- A 2010 loss vs. Michigan: 29 successful, 47 unsuccessful (38.2 percent)
BREAKING TACKLES: The Irish forced 11 missed or broken tackles against Virginia.
- Chase Claypool: 6 catches, 30 yards, 1 tackle missed/broken
- C’Bo Flemister: 6 rushes for 27 yards; 1 catch for 13 yards; 3 tackles missed/broken
- Tony Jones Jr.: 18 rushes for 131 yards; 1 catch for 6 yards; 6 tackles missed/broken
- Cole Kmet: 4 catches for 65 yards; 1 tackle missed/broken
YARDS AFTER CONTACT: As I used to chart games for College Football Film Room, I use their guideline to calculate based on where the ball was when contact was made. It has to be substantial contact, when the runner is either slowed or in danger of being tackled.
- Book: 9 rushes for negative 11 yards; 10 yards after contact
- Flemister: 17 yards after contact
- Jones Jr.: 68 yards after contact
- Jahmir Smith: 3 carries, 8 yards, 6 yards after contact
- Michael Young: 1 carries for 2 yards, 1 yard after contact
YARDS AFTER THE CATCH: Total yards minus air yards.
- Claypool: 11 yards after the catch
- Chris Finke: 2 catches for 32 yards, 4 yards after the catch
- Flemister: 18 yards after the catch
- Jones Jr.: 5 yards after the catch
- Kmet: 18 yards after the catch
- Young: 3 catches for 19 yards, 18 yards after the catch
BOOK PASSING CHART
All passes attempted from the shotgun.
At or behind the line of scrimmage: 5-for-7, 30 yards, 1 first down, 1 drop (by Davis)
Throws left, 0-9 yards: 7-for-7, 51 yards, 1 first down
Throws middle, 0-9 yards: 0-for-1, 0 yards, 1 drop (by McKinley)
Throws right, 0-9 yards: 3-for-5, 19 yards, 3 first downs
Throws left, 10-19 yards: 0-for-1, 0 yards
Throws middle, 10-19 yards: 0-for-0, 0 yards
Throws right, 10-19 yards: 0-for-0, 0 yards
Throws left, 20 or more yards: 2-for-2, 65 yards, 2 first downs
Throws middle, 20 or more yards: 0-for-1, 0 yards
Throws right, 20 or more yards: 0-for-1, 0 yards
Book attempted 20 of his 25 passes when there was no pressure from the Virginia defense and he was standing in the pocket. He was 16-for-20 for 152 yards in those instances. In the five times the Cavaliers managed to get in Book’s face, the quarterback was 1-for-5 for 18 yards, although one of those four incompletions was a drop.
I counted 33 instances where Book dropped back with the intention of passing. He rushed for negative 22 yards during those eight instances when he dropped back, but didn’t throw.
TARGET COUNT (SEASON)
Targets in the 2019 Season
|Lawrence Keys III||1||1||2||16|
|Tony Jones Jr.||0||2||1||15|
BOOK VERSUS HIS PREDECESSORS
The senior has now taken 1,083 snaps under center for the Irish. Here’s how his statistics match up to six of his predecessors who took that many snaps for Notre Dame.
Notre Dame QBs through 1,083 Snaps, 2000-2019
|Yds gained from run||3014||2247||1465||2497||2596||2871||2635|
|Yards per run attempt||4.0||3.9||2.7||4.8||4.5||5.0||4.6|
|Runs by QB (excluding sacks)||223||49||52||27||122||162||136|
|Yds gained from run by QB (excluding sacks)||1031||163||138||42||620||889||796|
|Yards per QB run (excluding sacks)||4.6||3.3||2.7||1.6||5.1||5.5||5.9|
|Yds gained from pass||1954||3262||3368||3855||3926||4501||4070|
|Yards per comp||11.9||12.9||10.8||10.8||12.7||14.4||12.1|
|Yards per attempt||6.1||6.3||6.2||6.9||7.7||8.9||8.0|
|Total yards gained (run & pass)||4968||5509||4833||6352||6522||7372||6705|
|3rd Down conversions by pass||41.4%||40.3%||42.9%||40.0%|
|Non-penalty first downs||229||249||238||318||330||317||315|
|First downs by pass||85||140||142||190||192||189||180|
|First downs by QB run||45||20||16||8||37||41||37|
|% of 1Ds accounted for||56.8%||64.3%||66.4%||62.3%||69.4%||72.6%||68.9%|
|% of 1D runs accounted for by QB||31.3%||18.3%||16.7%||6.3%||26.8%||32.0%||27.4%|
|Touchdowns thrown % of all TDs||25.0%||48.6%||72.7%||55.4%||52.0%||50.7%||46.3%|
|Touchdowns run by QB||5||1||2||0||10||16||6|
|% of total TDs that were run by QB||15.6%||2.7%||6.1%||0.0%||20.0%||22.5%||9.0%|
|TDs by QB (arm or legs)||13||19||26||31||36||52||37|
|TDs by QB as % of total TDs||40.6%||51.4%||78.8%||55.4%||72.0%||73.2%||55.2%|
|Interceptions per attempt||2.8%||3.9%||2.8%||3.8%||2.0%||3.0%||2.6%|
|Fumbles by QB||21||7||8||8||13||7||6|
|Fumbles lost by QB||9||3||4||6||8||4||3|
|QB carries (including sacks)||223||74||97||41||147||196||168|
|Fumbles lost per QB carry||4.0%||4.1%||4.1%||14.6%||5.4%||2.0%||1.8%|
|Sacked per pass attempt||11.9%||5.1%||8.3%||2.5%||4.9%||6.7%||6.3%|
|Negative yardage plays||140||105||131||94||92||111||104|
|Negative yardage plays by QB||73||32||50||20||36||49||39|
|Explosive pass plays (20+ yards)||25||38||44||51||57||67||64|
|Explosive run plays (12+ yards)||65||60||34||68||55||66||60|
|Explosive plays total||90||98||78||119||112||133||124|
|Explosive plays by QB run||30||5||0||1||14||20||15|
|Explosive plays by QB arms/legs||55||43||44||52||71||87||79|
|Explosive % generated by QB||61.1%||43.9%||56.4%||43.7%||63.4%||65.4%||63.7%|
|First Down success rate||38.3%||54.8%||51.7%||49.3%||48.9%|
|Second Down success rate||35.4%||46.6%||53.1%||47.6%||44.8%|
|Third Down success rate||29.5%||41.9%||39.9%||40.7%||40.1%|
|Fourth Down success rate||36.4%||66.7%||50.0%||37.5%||63.2%|
|Overall success rate||25.0%||48.8%||49.1%||46.3%||45.9%|
|2019 success rate||40.9%|