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Mel Kiper has had a change of heart.
For the first time this year, ESPN’s top draft analyst has predicted that former Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer will be selected in the first round. Kiper revealed Wednesday ($) that he has Kizer going to the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 27.
His college coach made news Monday by saying Kizer should have stayed in school another year, and I have said that all along. He needs a year or two behind a veteran in the NFL, and that fits in Kansas City, where Alex Smith is signed through 2018. Remember: Kansas City tried to trade up for Paxton Lynch last year, so we know the Chiefs are thinking about the future.
Kiper is the most read analyst among NFL Draft experts. His colleague, Todd McShay, is likely second on that list. McShay believes Kizer will be the first pick of the second round — No. 33 to the Cleveland Browns.
This would be a long-term play for the Browns and coach Hue Jackson. Kizer has an enticing physical skill set, including elite arm strength; his mechanics still need some work, though.
Like Kiper & McShay, there is no agreement on whether Kizer is a first round pick or not. I’m tracking 184 mock drafts and, of those, 45 percent believe the former Irish signalcaller will not be drafted in the first round. That number dips only slightly when considering mock drafts released in the last seven days.
It will be interesting to see if Kiper’s change will have an effect on his colleagues with large audiences. Of the top 20 biggest names, 66 percent are currently predicting Kizer won’t go in the first round.
KIZER IN QB PECKING ORDER
The North Carolina Tar Heels’ Mitchell Trubisky is becoming a popular choice when mock draft analysts determine which quarterback is coming off the board first.
In the 55 mock drafts released in the past week, Trubisky was top QB taken in 40 of them. The Clemson Tigers’ DeShaun Watson was chosen first among the foursome 12 times, while the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ Pat Mahomes was the top signalcaller in two mocks. Kizer was the first QB taken in just one mock draft: Nick Rodriguez’s mock for EndZone Score.
Half of the mocks released in the last week think Trubisky will be picked at No. 12 by the Browns. Mahomes is becoming the popular pick for the Arizona Cardinals at No. 13. Twenty-three percent of mocks have him going west to Glendale, while 18 percent see the Cardinals picking Watson instead.
While Tony Romo’s retirement increases the probability that the Houston Texans will draft a quarterback first, analysts are split on who they may select. One quarter say Kizer will reunite with his favorite college target, Will Fuller, while another one quarter say it’s Mahomes who will be firing balls deep to DeAndre Hopkins.
Analysts believe Watson is the most likely of the four to end up with the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 27, while three mocks released this week believe Kizer will be picked 30th by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Many mocks concentrate solely on the first 32 picks. If there was a quarterback among the four to be excluded, it was most often Kizer. Forty-one percent of the mocks released in the last week think he’s a Day 2 selection, while 31 percent feel similarly about Mahomes. Trubisky was omitted from the first round in just one of the 55 mock drafts I studied this past week.
Full spreadsheet here.
DeShone Kizer’s Position in Mock Drafts
Draft analyst | Publication | Date of Mock | Kizer at... | Team |
---|---|---|---|---|
Draft analyst | Publication | Date of Mock | Kizer at... | Team |
Aaron Wilson | Houston Chronicle | 4/1/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Adam Gorney | Rivals | 3/11/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Adam Greene | Get More Sports | 3/29/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Adam Kurkjian | Athlon Sports | 3/27/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Adam Wells | Bleacher Report | 4/1/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Andre Simone | BSN Denver | 2/28/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Andrew Gribble | ClevelandBrowns.com | 4/4/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Andrew Juge | This Given Sunday | 3/21/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Andrew Mason | DenverBroncos.com | 3/21/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Anthony Broome | 247 Sports | 3/22/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Anthony Messina | Sports Blog | 3/11/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Art Stapleton | The Record (N.J.) | 3/31/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Ben Standig | CSN Mid-Atlantic | 3/31/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Bob McManaman | The Arizona Republic | 2/16/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Brad Biggs | Chicago Tribune | 3/31/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Brad Gagnon | Bleacher Report | 4/4/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Brad Weiss | FanSided | 3/31/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Brandon Yamrick | Real Sport | 3/29/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Brennan Smith | The Salt Lake Tribune | 3/20/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Brent Sobleski | Bleacher Report | 3/21/2017 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Brian Johannes | NFL Draft Geek | 3/22/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Brian Mazique | Forbes | 3/30/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Bryan Luis | INSC Magazine | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Bucky Brooks | NFL.com | 3/20/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Cameron Wolfe | The Denver Post | 3/31/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Carl Cockerham | With the First Pick | 3/30/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Chad Reuter | NFL.com | 3/30/2017 | 45 | Arizona Cardinals |
Charean Williams | Fort Worth Star-Telegram | 3/31/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Charley Casserly | NFL.com | 3/28/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Charlie Campbell | WalterFootball | 4/3/2017 | 30 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Chris Burke | Sports Illustrated | 3/29/2017 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Chris Emma | CBS Chicago | 3/29/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Chris Fedor | Advance Media (Cleveland) | 3/24/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Chris Ransom | Draft Utopia | 3/29/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Chris Roling | Bleacher Report | 3/27/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Cole Thompson | The Draft Wire | 3/07/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Connor Hughes | NJ.com | 2/28/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Connor Reilly | SEC Country | 4/2/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
D. Orlando Ledbetter | Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 3/29/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
D.J. Boyer | DraftSite.com | 3/28/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Dan Bilicki | Toronto Sun | 3/15/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Dan Duggan | NJ Advance Media | 3/13/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Dan Kadar | SB Nation | 4/3/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Dan Schmelzer | NFL Spin Zone | 2/27/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Dan Wilkins | The Score | 4/4/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Dane Brugler | CBS Sports | 4/4/2017 | 32 | New Orleans Saints |
Daniel Jeremiah | NFL.com | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Danny Kelly | The Ringer | 3/28/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
DaRon Frost | Pro Players Insider | 2/26/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Dave Birkett | Detroit Free Press | 3/15/2017 | 10 | Buffalo Bills |
David Harrison | The Pewter Plank | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
David McCracken | Bleacher Report | 2/21/2017 | 20 | Denver Broncos |
David Wyatt | Gang Green Nation | 2/16/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Dieter Kurtenbach | Fox Sports | 3/30/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Doug Martz | Draft Board Guru | 3/26/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Eddie Brown | San Diego Union-Tribune | 3/30/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Eliot Shorr-Parks | NJ Advance Media | 3/27/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Emily Kaplan | MMQB | 3/07/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Eric Edholm | Yahoo! | 3/15/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Eric Galko | The Sporting News | 3/20/2017 | 57 | Houston Texans |
Erik Lambert | NFL Mocks | 3/25/2017 | 24 | San Francisco 49ers |
Gary Davenport | Bleacher Report | 3/27/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
George Stockburger | NFL Mocks | 3/30/2017 | 38 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Greg Vorse | Spectrum News | 3/29/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Henry Buggy | 4th And Goal | 3/28/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Hub Arkush | Pro Football Weekly | 3/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Ian Rhodes | Local 4 / Click on Detroit | 3/29/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
J.C. Talon | Pro Football Weekly | 4/3/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Jacob Infante | Cover 32 | 3/27/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Jacob Louque | Baltimore Beatdown | 3/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
James Fedewa | National Fanatic | 3/24/2017 | 30 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
James Kratch | NJ Advance Media | 4/3/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jared Dubin | CBS Sports | 3/31/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Jared Sherman | CSNPhilly.com | 3/20/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jason B. Hirschhorn | Sports on Earth | 3/08/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jason Lieser | Palm Beach Post | 3/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jason McIntyre | The Big Lead | 3/29/2017 | 17 | Washington Redskins |
Jay Skurski | The Buffalo News | 3/24/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jayson Braddock | Scout | 3/22/2017 | 32 | Cleveland Browns |
Jeff Mullen | NFL Draft Geeks | 4/3/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Jeff Risdon | RealGM | 3/29/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Jim Mastrucci | Sports Blog | 4/2/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Joe Buscaglia | WKBW-TV (Buffalo) | 3/22/2017 | 36 | Chicago Bears |
Joe Malfa | Turn on the Jets | 3/24/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Joe Redemann | numberFire | 3/03/2017 | 6 | New York Jets |
John Harris | Washington Post | 3/21/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
John Manuel | Fanspeak | 3/31/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
John McClain | Houston Chronicle | 4/1/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jon Dove | With the First Pick | 3/31/2017 | 45 | Arizona Cardinals |
Jonathan K. Henson | Revenge of the Birds | 3/20/2017 | 57 | Houston Texans |
Jonathan Valencia | Breaking Football | 3/10/2017 | 23 | New York Giants |
Joseph Zucker | Bleacher Report | 3/06/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Josh Norris | Rotoworld | 4/3/2017 | 23 | New York Giants |
Justin Bales | FF Today | 4/3/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Justin Rogers | The Detroit News | 3/21/2017 | Not in the first round | |
Justis Mosqueda | Bleacher Report | 1/23/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Keet Bailey | Breaking Football | 3/17/2017 | 57 | Houston Texans |
Keith Mullins | Cowboys Wire | 2/28/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Kenneth Arthur | Sports on Earth | 3/28/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Kevin Hanson | Eat Drink and Sleep Football | 4/2/2017 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Kristopher Knox | Bleacher Report | 4/4/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Kyle Crabbs | FanRag Sports | 3/06/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Kyle Davis | With the First Pick | 3/16/2017 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Lance Zierlein | NFL.com | 3/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Lou Pickney | DraftKing.com | 3/25/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Luke Easterling | The Draft Wire | 4/3/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Mark Easson | MyNFLDraft.com | 3/29/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Mark Eckel | NJ Advance Media | 3/20/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Matt Burke | Metro.us | 2/27/2017 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Matt Falk | Draftseason | 4/3/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Matt Lombardo | NJ Advance Media | 3/30/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Matt Miller | Bleacher Report | 3/07/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Matthew Olson | Real Sport | 3/10/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Matthew Urben | SideLion Report | 3/21/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Maurice Moton | Bleacher Report | 3/09/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Max Himelstein | NFL Draft Blitz | 3/22/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN | 4/5/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Michael Pallas | The Jet Express | 2/06/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Michelle Bruton | Bleacher Report | 3/21/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Micky McKeon | Mockout | 3/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Mike Farrell | Rivals | 3/11/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Mike Kaye | First Coast News | 3/15/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Miles Dittberner | Cover 32 | 4/3/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Nate Davis | USA Today | 3/23/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Nathan Zegura | ClevelandBrowns.com | 4/4/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Nicholas Goss | NESN | 3/30/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Nick Klopsis | Newsday | 3/29/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Nick Rodriguez | Endzone Score | 4/3/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Nik Edlund | NFL Draft Season | 3/27/2017 | 33 | Cleveland Browns |
Noah Strackbein | Slap the Sign | 3/30/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Nora Princiotti | The Washington Times | 3/20/2017 | 32 | New Orleans Saints |
Oliver Connolly | All 22 | 3/01/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Patrick Maks | ClevelandBrowns.com | 4/4/2017 | 30 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Paul A. Edson Jr. | Elite Sports NY | 4/3/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Paul Banks | The Sports Bank | 3/23/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Paul Hudrick | CSNPhilly.com | 2/05/2017 | 10 | Buffalo Bills |
Pete Prisco | CBS Sports | 3/29/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Peter Schrager | Fox Sports | 3/21/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Phillip Heilman | The Florida Times-Union | 3/24/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
R.J. White | CBS Sports | 4/1/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Randy Gurzi | NFL Spin Zone | 4/1/2017 | 59 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Ray Mecino | NFL Rough Draft | 3/09/2017 | 45 | Arizona Cardinals |
Richard Sena | Vavel | 3/25/2017 | 45 | Arizona Cardinals |
Rob Rang | CBS Sports | 4/3/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Rob Staton | Seahawks Draft Blog | 3/28/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Robert Davis | Football is Future | 2/22/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Russell Brown | NFL Mocks | 3/06/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Ryan Griffith | Breaking Football | 2/25/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Ryan McCrystal | DraftAce | 2/17/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Ryan Wilson | CBS Sports | 3/22/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Sam Farmer | Los Angeles Times | 4/1/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Samuel Fuller | FullerMetrics | 3/06/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Sayre Bedinger | NFL Mocks | 4/2/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Scott Krinch | CSN Chicago | 3/30/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Scott Polacek | Bleacher Report | 3/06/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Scott Wright | Draft Countdown | 4/3/17 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Staff | DraftTek | 3/29/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Staff | DraftBlaster.com | 4/2/2017 | 105 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Staff | Fantasy Football Prophet | 2/28/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Staff | NFLMock | 4/3/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Staff | Tankathon | 4/1/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Staff | Viking Update | 3/31/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Staff | WRGW District Radio | 3/31/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Staff NN | Niners Nation | 4/2/2017 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Stephen Cohen | Seattle Post-Intelligencer | 3/16/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steve Palazzolo | Pro Football Focus | 4/4/2017 | 57 | Houston Texans |
Steve Serby | NY Post | 3/25/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steve Shoup | Fanspeak | 3/29/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steve Silverman | Bleacher Report | 2/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steven Petrella | Land of 10 | 3/29/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Steven Ruiz | For the Win/USA Today | 3/07/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Tab Bamford | Daily Chicago Sports Tab | 3/11/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Terez A. Paylor | Kansas City Star | 3/17/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Tim Campbell | Live 4 Sport Network | 3/30/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Todd McShay | ESPN | 4/5/2017 | 33 | Cleveland Browns |
Tom Downey | Chat Sports | 3/29/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Tony Grossi | ESPN Cleveland | 4/2/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Vasilis Lericos | Baltimore Beatdown | 3/07/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News | 4/3/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Walter Cherepinsky | WalterFootball | 4/4/2017 | 30 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Will Brinson | CBS Sports | 3/30/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Will Carroll | ALL 22 | 1/24/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Xavier Cromartie | College Football Metrics | 3/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Zach Goodall | Big Cat Country | 3/13/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Previous roundups:
- The Four NFL Teams deciding DeShone Kizer’s Fate (March 30)
- On Pro Day, DeShone Kizer Needs to Improve His Standing Among NFL Teams (March 23)
- Half of Top Analysts Think Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer Isn’t a First Round Pick (March 16)
- NFL Draft Analysts Think DeShone Kizer Cost Himself $3 Million at Combine (March 9)
- Cleveland Browns are the Popular Pick to Land DeShone Kizer (March 2)
- DeShone Kizer to Kansas City? (Feb. 22)