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NFL Draft Roundup 7.0: Mel Kiper Now Puts Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer in First Round

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We’ll also tell you where Kizer is mock drafts relative to his fellow quarterbacks.

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NCAA Football: Miami at Notre Dame Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Mel Kiper has had a change of heart.

For the first time this year, ESPN’s top draft analyst has predicted that former Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer will be selected in the first round. Kiper revealed Wednesday ($) that he has Kizer going to the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 27.

His college coach made news Monday by saying Kizer should have stayed in school another year, and I have said that all along. He needs a year or two behind a veteran in the NFL, and that fits in Kansas City, where Alex Smith is signed through 2018. Remember: Kansas City tried to trade up for Paxton Lynch last year, so we know the Chiefs are thinking about the future.

Kiper is the most read analyst among NFL Draft experts. His colleague, Todd McShay, is likely second on that list. McShay believes Kizer will be the first pick of the second round — No. 33 to the Cleveland Browns.

This would be a long-term play for the Browns and coach Hue Jackson. Kizer has an enticing physical skill set, including elite arm strength; his mechanics still need some work, though.

Like Kiper & McShay, there is no agreement on whether Kizer is a first round pick or not. I’m tracking 184 mock drafts and, of those, 45 percent believe the former Irish signalcaller will not be drafted in the first round. That number dips only slightly when considering mock drafts released in the last seven days.

It will be interesting to see if Kiper’s change will have an effect on his colleagues with large audiences. Of the top 20 biggest names, 66 percent are currently predicting Kizer won’t go in the first round.

KIZER IN QB PECKING ORDER

The North Carolina Tar Heels’ Mitchell Trubisky is becoming a popular choice when mock draft analysts determine which quarterback is coming off the board first.

In the 55 mock drafts released in the past week, Trubisky was top QB taken in 40 of them. The Clemson Tigers’ DeShaun Watson was chosen first among the foursome 12 times, while the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ Pat Mahomes was the top signalcaller in two mocks. Kizer was the first QB taken in just one mock draft: Nick Rodriguez’s mock for EndZone Score.

Half of the mocks released in the last week think Trubisky will be picked at No. 12 by the Browns. Mahomes is becoming the popular pick for the Arizona Cardinals at No. 13. Twenty-three percent of mocks have him going west to Glendale, while 18 percent see the Cardinals picking Watson instead.

While Tony Romo’s retirement increases the probability that the Houston Texans will draft a quarterback first, analysts are split on who they may select. One quarter say Kizer will reunite with his favorite college target, Will Fuller, while another one quarter say it’s Mahomes who will be firing balls deep to DeAndre Hopkins.

Analysts believe Watson is the most likely of the four to end up with the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 27, while three mocks released this week believe Kizer will be picked 30th by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Many mocks concentrate solely on the first 32 picks. If there was a quarterback among the four to be excluded, it was most often Kizer. Forty-one percent of the mocks released in the last week think he’s a Day 2 selection, while 31 percent feel similarly about Mahomes. Trubisky was omitted from the first round in just one of the 55 mock drafts I studied this past week.

Full spreadsheet here.

DeShone Kizer’s Position in Mock Drafts

Draft analyst Publication Date of Mock Kizer at... Team
Draft analyst Publication Date of Mock Kizer at... Team
Aaron Wilson Houston Chronicle 4/1/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Adam Gorney Rivals 3/11/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Adam Greene Get More Sports 3/29/2017 25 Houston Texans
Adam Kurkjian Athlon Sports 3/27/2017 25 Houston Texans
Adam Wells Bleacher Report 4/1/2017 25 Houston Texans
Andre Simone BSN Denver 2/28/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Andrew Gribble ClevelandBrowns.com 4/4/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Andrew Juge This Given Sunday 3/21/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Andrew Mason DenverBroncos.com 3/21/2017 25 Houston Texans
Anthony Broome 247 Sports 3/22/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Anthony Messina Sports Blog 3/11/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Art Stapleton The Record (N.J.) 3/31/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Ben Standig CSN Mid-Atlantic 3/31/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Bob McManaman The Arizona Republic 2/16/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Brad Biggs Chicago Tribune 3/31/2017 25 Houston Texans
Brad Gagnon Bleacher Report 4/4/2017 25 Houston Texans
Brad Weiss FanSided 3/31/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Brandon Yamrick Real Sport 3/29/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Brennan Smith The Salt Lake Tribune 3/20/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Brent Sobleski Bleacher Report 3/21/2017 34 San Francisco 49ers
Brian Johannes NFL Draft Geek 3/22/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Brian Mazique Forbes 3/30/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Bryan Luis INSC Magazine 3/13/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Bucky Brooks NFL.com 3/20/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Cameron Wolfe The Denver Post 3/31/2017 25 Houston Texans
Carl Cockerham With the First Pick 3/30/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Chad Reuter NFL.com 3/30/2017 45 Arizona Cardinals
Charean Williams Fort Worth Star-Telegram 3/31/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Charley Casserly NFL.com 3/28/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Charlie Campbell WalterFootball 4/3/2017 30 Pittsburgh Steelers
Chris Burke Sports Illustrated 3/29/2017 34 San Francisco 49ers
Chris Emma CBS Chicago 3/29/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Chris Fedor Advance Media (Cleveland) 3/24/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Chris Ransom Draft Utopia 3/29/2017 2 San Francisco 49ers
Chris Roling Bleacher Report 3/27/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Cole Thompson The Draft Wire 3/07/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Connor Hughes NJ.com 2/28/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Connor Reilly SEC Country 4/2/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
D. Orlando Ledbetter Atlanta Journal-Constitution 3/29/2017 Not in the first round n/a
D.J. Boyer DraftSite.com 3/28/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Dan Bilicki Toronto Sun 3/15/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Dan Duggan NJ Advance Media 3/13/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Dan Kadar SB Nation 4/3/2017 25 Houston Texans
Dan Schmelzer NFL Spin Zone 2/27/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Dan Wilkins The Score 4/4/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Dane Brugler CBS Sports 4/4/2017 32 New Orleans Saints
Daniel Jeremiah NFL.com 3/13/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Danny Kelly The Ringer 3/28/2017 25 Houston Texans
DaRon Frost Pro Players Insider 2/26/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Dave Birkett Detroit Free Press 3/15/2017 10 Buffalo Bills
David Harrison The Pewter Plank 3/13/2017 Not in the first round n/a
David McCracken Bleacher Report 2/21/2017 20 Denver Broncos
David Wyatt Gang Green Nation 2/16/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Dieter Kurtenbach Fox Sports 3/30/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Doug Martz Draft Board Guru 3/26/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Eddie Brown San Diego Union-Tribune 3/30/2017 25 Houston Texans
Eliot Shorr-Parks NJ Advance Media 3/27/2017 25 Houston Texans
Emily Kaplan MMQB 3/07/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Eric Edholm Yahoo! 3/15/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Eric Galko The Sporting News 3/20/2017 57 Houston Texans
Erik Lambert NFL Mocks 3/25/2017 24 San Francisco 49ers
Gary Davenport Bleacher Report 3/27/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
George Stockburger NFL Mocks 3/30/2017 38 Los Angeles Chargers
Greg Vorse Spectrum News 3/29/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Henry Buggy 4th And Goal 3/28/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Hub Arkush Pro Football Weekly 3/27/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Ian Rhodes Local 4 / Click on Detroit 3/29/2017 Not in the first round n/a
J.C. Talon Pro Football Weekly 4/3/2017 25 Houston Texans
Jacob Infante Cover 32 3/27/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Jacob Louque Baltimore Beatdown 3/15/2017 Not in the first round n/a
James Fedewa National Fanatic 3/24/2017 30 Pittsburgh Steelers
James Kratch NJ Advance Media 4/3/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Jared Dubin CBS Sports 3/31/2017 25 Houston Texans
Jared Sherman CSNPhilly.com 3/20/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Jason B. Hirschhorn Sports on Earth 3/08/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Jason Lieser Palm Beach Post 3/15/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Jason McIntyre The Big Lead 3/29/2017 17 Washington Redskins
Jay Skurski The Buffalo News 3/24/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Jayson Braddock Scout 3/22/2017 32 Cleveland Browns
Jeff Mullen NFL Draft Geeks 4/3/2017 25 Houston Texans
Jeff Risdon RealGM 3/29/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Jim Mastrucci Sports Blog 4/2/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Joe Buscaglia WKBW-TV (Buffalo) 3/22/2017 36 Chicago Bears
Joe Malfa Turn on the Jets 3/24/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Joe Redemann numberFire 3/03/2017 6 New York Jets
John Harris Washington Post 3/21/2017 Not in the first round n/a
John Manuel Fanspeak 3/31/2017 Not in the first round n/a
John McClain Houston Chronicle 4/1/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Jon Dove With the First Pick 3/31/2017 45 Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan K. Henson Revenge of the Birds 3/20/2017 57 Houston Texans
Jonathan Valencia Breaking Football 3/10/2017 23 New York Giants
Joseph Zucker Bleacher Report 3/06/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Josh Norris Rotoworld 4/3/2017 23 New York Giants
Justin Bales FF Today 4/3/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Justin Rogers The Detroit News 3/21/2017 Not in the first round
Justis Mosqueda Bleacher Report 1/23/2017 2 San Francisco 49ers
Keet Bailey Breaking Football 3/17/2017 57 Houston Texans
Keith Mullins Cowboys Wire 2/28/2017 3 Chicago Bears
Kenneth Arthur Sports on Earth 3/28/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Kevin Hanson Eat Drink and Sleep Football 4/2/2017 34 San Francisco 49ers
Kristopher Knox Bleacher Report 4/4/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Kyle Crabbs FanRag Sports 3/06/2017 2 San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Davis With the First Pick 3/16/2017 34 San Francisco 49ers
Lance Zierlein NFL.com 3/27/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Lou Pickney DraftKing.com 3/25/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Luke Easterling The Draft Wire 4/3/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Mark Easson MyNFLDraft.com 3/29/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Mark Eckel NJ Advance Media 3/20/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Matt Burke Metro.us 2/27/2017 34 San Francisco 49ers
Matt Falk Draftseason 4/3/2017 25 Houston Texans
Matt Lombardo NJ Advance Media 3/30/2017 25 Houston Texans
Matt Miller Bleacher Report 3/07/2017 25 Houston Texans
Matthew Olson Real Sport 3/10/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Matthew Urben SideLion Report 3/21/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Maurice Moton Bleacher Report 3/09/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Max Himelstein NFL Draft Blitz 3/22/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Mel Kiper Jr. ESPN 4/5/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Michael Pallas The Jet Express 2/06/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Michelle Bruton Bleacher Report 3/21/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Micky McKeon Mockout 3/27/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Mike Farrell Rivals 3/11/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Mike Kaye First Coast News 3/15/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Miles Dittberner Cover 32 4/3/2017 25 Houston Texans
Nate Davis USA Today 3/23/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Nathan Zegura ClevelandBrowns.com 4/4/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Nicholas Goss NESN 3/30/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Nick Klopsis Newsday 3/29/2017 25 Houston Texans
Nick Rodriguez Endzone Score 4/3/2017 2 San Francisco 49ers
Nik Edlund NFL Draft Season 3/27/2017 33 Cleveland Browns
Noah Strackbein Slap the Sign 3/30/2017 3 Chicago Bears
Nora Princiotti The Washington Times 3/20/2017 32 New Orleans Saints
Oliver Connolly All 22 3/01/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Patrick Maks ClevelandBrowns.com 4/4/2017 30 Pittsburgh Steelers
Paul A. Edson Jr. Elite Sports NY 4/3/2017 25 Houston Texans
Paul Banks The Sports Bank 3/23/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Paul Hudrick CSNPhilly.com 2/05/2017 10 Buffalo Bills
Pete Prisco CBS Sports 3/29/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Peter Schrager Fox Sports 3/21/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Phillip Heilman The Florida Times-Union 3/24/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
R.J. White CBS Sports 4/1/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Randy Gurzi NFL Spin Zone 4/1/2017 59 Kansas City Chiefs
Ray Mecino NFL Rough Draft 3/09/2017 45 Arizona Cardinals
Richard Sena Vavel 3/25/2017 45 Arizona Cardinals
Rob Rang CBS Sports 4/3/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Rob Staton Seahawks Draft Blog 3/28/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Robert Davis Football is Future 2/22/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Russell Brown NFL Mocks 3/06/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Ryan Griffith Breaking Football 2/25/2017 3 Chicago Bears
Ryan McCrystal DraftAce 2/17/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Ryan Wilson CBS Sports 3/22/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Sam Farmer Los Angeles Times 4/1/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Samuel Fuller FullerMetrics 3/06/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Sayre Bedinger NFL Mocks 4/2/2017 25 Houston Texans
Scott Krinch CSN Chicago 3/30/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Scott Polacek Bleacher Report 3/06/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Scott Wright Draft Countdown 4/3/17 34 San Francisco 49ers
Staff DraftTek 3/29/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Staff DraftBlaster.com 4/2/2017 105 Pittsburgh Steelers
Staff Fantasy Football Prophet 2/28/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Staff NFLMock 4/3/2017 27 Kansas City Chiefs
Staff Tankathon 4/1/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Staff Viking Update 3/31/2017 25 Houston Texans
Staff WRGW District Radio 3/31/2017 13 Arizona Cardinals
Staff NN Niners Nation 4/2/2017 34 San Francisco 49ers
Stephen Cohen Seattle Post-Intelligencer 3/16/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Steve Palazzolo Pro Football Focus 4/4/2017 57 Houston Texans
Steve Serby NY Post 3/25/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Steve Shoup Fanspeak 3/29/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Steve Silverman Bleacher Report 2/27/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Steven Petrella Land of 10 3/29/2017 12 Cleveland Browns
Steven Ruiz For the Win/USA Today 3/07/2017 25 Houston Texans
Tab Bamford Daily Chicago Sports Tab 3/11/2017 2 San Francisco 49ers
Terez A. Paylor Kansas City Star 3/17/2017 25 Houston Texans
Tim Campbell Live 4 Sport Network 3/30/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Todd McShay ESPN 4/5/2017 33 Cleveland Browns
Tom Downey Chat Sports 3/29/2017 25 Houston Texans
Tony Grossi ESPN Cleveland 4/2/2017 25 Houston Texans
Vasilis Lericos Baltimore Beatdown 3/07/2017 25 Houston Texans
Vinnie Iyer Sporting News 4/3/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Walter Cherepinsky WalterFootball 4/4/2017 30 Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Brinson CBS Sports 3/30/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Will Carroll ALL 22 1/24/2017 2 San Francisco 49ers
Xavier Cromartie College Football Metrics 3/27/2017 Not in the first round n/a
Zach Goodall Big Cat Country 3/13/2017 25 Houston Texans
As of April 5 @andrewwinn

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