NFL Draft Roundup 7.0: Mel Kiper Now Puts Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer in First Round

Mel Kiper has had a change of heart.

For the first time this year, ESPN’s top draft analyst has predicted that former Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer will be selected in the first round. Kiper revealed Wednesday ($) that he has Kizer going to the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 27.

His college coach made news Monday by saying Kizer should have stayed in school another year, and I have said that all along. He needs a year or two behind a veteran in the NFL, and that fits in Kansas City, where Alex Smith is signed through 2018. Remember: Kansas City tried to trade up for Paxton Lynch last year, so we know the Chiefs are thinking about the future.

Kiper is the most read analyst among NFL Draft experts. His colleague, Todd McShay, is likely second on that list. McShay believes Kizer will be the first pick of the second round — No. 33 to the Cleveland Browns.

This would be a long-term play for the Browns and coach Hue Jackson. Kizer has an enticing physical skill set, including elite arm strength; his mechanics still need some work, though.

Like Kiper & McShay, there is no agreement on whether Kizer is a first round pick or not. I’m tracking 184 mock drafts and, of those, 45 percent believe the former Irish signalcaller will not be drafted in the first round. That number dips only slightly when considering mock drafts released in the last seven days.

It will be interesting to see if Kiper’s change will have an effect on his colleagues with large audiences. Of the top 20 biggest names, 66 percent are currently predicting Kizer won’t go in the first round.

KIZER IN QB PECKING ORDER

The North Carolina Tar Heels’ Mitchell Trubisky is becoming a popular choice when mock draft analysts determine which quarterback is coming off the board first.

In the 55 mock drafts released in the past week, Trubisky was top QB taken in 40 of them. The Clemson Tigers’ DeShaun Watson was chosen first among the foursome 12 times, while the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ Pat Mahomes was the top signalcaller in two mocks. Kizer was the first QB taken in just one mock draft: Nick Rodriguez’s mock for EndZone Score.

Half of the mocks released in the last week think Trubisky will be picked at No. 12 by the Browns. Mahomes is becoming the popular pick for the Arizona Cardinals at No. 13. Twenty-three percent of mocks have him going west to Glendale, while 18 percent see the Cardinals picking Watson instead.

While Tony Romo’s retirement increases the probability that the Houston Texans will draft a quarterback first, analysts are split on who they may select. One quarter say Kizer will reunite with his favorite college target, Will Fuller, while another one quarter say it’s Mahomes who will be firing balls deep to DeAndre Hopkins.

Analysts believe Watson is the most likely of the four to end up with the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 27, while three mocks released this week believe Kizer will be picked 30th by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Many mocks concentrate solely on the first 32 picks. If there was a quarterback among the four to be excluded, it was most often Kizer. Forty-one percent of the mocks released in the last week think he’s a Day 2 selection, while 31 percent feel similarly about Mahomes. Trubisky was omitted from the first round in just one of the 55 mock drafts I studied this past week.

Full spreadsheet here.

Previous roundups:

• The Four NFL Teams deciding DeShone Kizer’s Fate (March 30)
• On Pro Day, DeShone Kizer Needs to Improve His Standing Among NFL Teams (March 23)
• Half of Top Analysts Think Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer Isn’t a First Round Pick (March 16)
• NFL Draft Analysts Think DeShone Kizer Cost Himself $3 Million at Combine (March 9)
• Cleveland Browns are the Popular Pick to Land DeShone Kizer (March 2)
• DeShone Kizer to Kansas City? (Feb. 22)