NFL Draft Roundup 8.0: Mike Mayock Drops DeShone Kizer to Fourth in QB Rankings

Mike Mayock still believes DeShone Kizer could have a great NFL career. That did not, however, stop the NFL Network analyst from dropping the former Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback from first to fourth on his positional rankings Wednesday.

“The reality for me is I haven’t changed my opinion on any of these kids,” Mayock told the NFL Network this morning. “But I’ve been around the NFL people for the last six weeks. And, from my perspective, Kizer still has the biggest ceiling of any quarterback in this draft. He’s the prototypical NFL franchise quarterback. But he’s not ready to play. I think he’s a year or two away from stepping on an NFL field.

“Now Mahomes is exciting as all get-out. And there’s a lot of momentum in the NFL for Patrick Mahomes. What he is is a pure gunslinger. He wants to hit a home run every snap of the game. And I really have two or three questions on him. No. 1: Can he settle for a single instead of a home run? No. 2: Can he win in the pocket on a consistent basis? And No. 3: Can he work on his fundamentals, techniques and decision making? And if he can, I’m telling you guys: He’s the most exciting quarterback in this year’s draft.”

Mayock said he believes North Carolina Tar Heels’ Mitch Trubisky is the “most ready to play” of the five quarterbacks on his position rankings. The analyst put the Clemson Tigers’ Deshaun Watson first, then Trubisky, Texas Tech Red Raiders’ Mahomes, Kizer and California Golden Bears’ Davis Webb.

Mayock’s comments this morning are a mirror of the mock drafts released so far. I’ve looked at predictions from 208 analysts. Of those, exactly half — 104 — now say Kizer is not a first-round pick. If we consider just the 72 mocks released in the last week, the percentage is worse. Fifty-eight percent of that group says Kizer is a second round pick.

While the Texas A&M Aggies’ defensive end Myles Garrett is a near consensus first pick in mock drafts, there is no true agreement regarding which order the quarterbacks will be taken — and which teams will select them.

For this study, I looked only at the 118 analysts who released mock drafts since March 31.

• The median pick for Trubisky is No. 12, which is currently owned by the Cleveland Browns.

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• The median pick for Watson is No. 13, currently held by the Arizona Cardinals.

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• The median pick for Mahomes is No. 25, at present owned by the Houston Texans

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• The median pick for Kizer, as I mentioned above, is “somewhere in the second round.”

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Previous roundups:

• Mel Kiper Now Puts Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer in First Round (April 5)
• The Four NFL Teams deciding DeShone Kizer’s Fate (March 30)
• On Pro Day, DeShone Kizer Needs to Improve His Standing Among NFL Teams (March 23)
• Half of Top Analysts Think Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer Isn’t a First Round Pick (March 16)
• NFL Draft Analysts Think DeShone Kizer Cost Himself $3 Million at Combine (March 9)
• Cleveland Browns are the Popular Pick to Land DeShone Kizer (March 2)
• DeShone Kizer to Kansas City? (Feb. 22)