NFL Draft 2017: On Pro Day, DeShone Kizer Needs to Improve His Standing Among NFL Teams

DeShone Kizer is not the favorite quarterback of any of the 22 NFL clubs recently surveyed by NFL.com.

Charlie Casserly, a former general manager now working for the league’s website, said nine club representatives liked the Clemson Tigers’ Deshaun Watson the best. Eight liked North Carolina Tar Heels’ Mitch Trubisky. Two picked Texas Tech Red Raiders’ signalcaller Patrick Mahomes and three said they did not have a favorite.

Mock draft analysts appear to be taking note of the perception of the former Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback and adjusting their first round predictions accordingly. We analyzed mock drafts put out by 152 different people and Kizer isn’t a first rounder in 40 percent of them now.

We’re now 35 days until the NFL Draft commences in Philadelphia, which is prime time for each college’s Pro Day — a way to highlight their talent being considered for the professional ranks.

Seventy-five representatives of NFL teams watched Trubisky work out at North Carolina’s Pro Day on Tuesday. There were more than 100 who went to Clemson’s event March 16 and saw Watson throw. It’ll be interesting to see which clubs come to Notre Dame at noon today -- and which opt to stay at home.

The Cleveland Browns — who have two first round picks — skipped Trubisky’s Pro Day. That would seem suspicious for a team in need of a quarterback, except that Trubisky is reportedly going to work out for the club in a private setting.

SB Nation’s Jon Benne predicted Tuesday that the Browns will ultimately select Watson with the 12th overall pick.

Cleveland is the second-favorite destination for Kizer of the 89 mock draft analysts who think he’s going in the first round. The Browns were the pick of 22 of those individuals, while the Arizona Cardinals — who hold pick #13 — were chosen by 23 analysts.

While about half of 49 mock drafts released in the last 7 days don’t think Kizer will be among the first 32 picks, Arizona is the second most-popular option. Ten individuals slotted him at #13.

“CONNECTED” EXPERTS EVEN MORE BEARISH

While anyone can make a mock draft and publish it online, there are only a few individuals who are talking regularly to decision makers on NFL teams.

These are the “connected” guys, who usually work for major sports networks or publications. To find them, we used Twitter and picked the top 20 most followed draft experts. The list includes ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay; NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks, Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Zierlein and Casserly; CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco, Dane Brugler and Will Brinson and Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller.

In that group of 20, 12 experts think Kizer won’t be picked on Day 1. Of the eight believers, Kizer’s matches are the Cardinals (Brugler, ClevelandBrowns.com’s Nathan Zegura and ESPN Cleveland’s Tony Grossi), Buffalo Bills (Casserly), Browns (FOX Sports’ Pete Schrager), Houston Texans (Rotoworld’s Josh Norris and Miller of Bleacher Report) and Kansas City Chiefs (WKBW-TV’s Joe Buscaglia).

(SB Nation’s Benne who, to my knowledge, doesn’t publish a mock draft, predicts the Texans will sign former Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo.)

The number of Twitter followers is an imperfect science, so we decided to also consider the ratio of followers to those the analyst was following. (We’re calling it the “listener ratio.”) This subset features many of the same “connected” guys, but also includes Advance Media’s Chris Fedor, SEC County’s Connor Reilly, SB Nation’s Dan Kadar and CBS Sports’ Rob Rang.

Of this group of 20, 10 think Kizer won’t be picked in the first round. The ten believers have Kizer going to the Bills, Cardinals, Chiefs and Texans.

Both Miller and Jeremiah spoke to MMQB recently about the somewhat confusing popularity of mock drafts. Miller told the publication that “his rankings are his eyes and his mock drafts are his ears.” Jeremiah echoed that, saying, “Mock drafts, for me, are solely based off what I am hearing.”