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DeShone Kizer is not the favorite quarterback of any of the 22 NFL clubs recently surveyed by NFL.com.
Charlie Casserly, a former general manager now working for the league’s website, said nine club representatives liked the Clemson Tigers’ Deshaun Watson the best. Eight liked North Carolina Tar Heels’ Mitch Trubisky. Two picked Texas Tech Red Raiders’ signalcaller Patrick Mahomes and three said they did not have a favorite.
Mock draft analysts appear to be taking note of the perception of the former Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback and adjusting their first round predictions accordingly. We analyzed mock drafts put out by 152 different people and Kizer isn’t a first rounder in 40 percent of them now.
We’re now 35 days until the NFL Draft commences in Philadelphia, which is prime time for each college’s Pro Day — a way to highlight their talent being considered for the professional ranks.
Seventy-five representatives of NFL teams watched Trubisky work out at North Carolina’s Pro Day on Tuesday. There were more than 100 who went to Clemson’s event March 16 and saw Watson throw. It’ll be interesting to see which clubs come to Notre Dame at noon today -- and which opt to stay at home.
The Cleveland Browns — who have two first round picks — skipped Trubisky’s Pro Day. That would seem suspicious for a team in need of a quarterback, except that Trubisky is reportedly going to work out for the club in a private setting.
SB Nation’s Jon Benne predicted Tuesday that the Browns will ultimately select Watson with the 12th overall pick.
Cleveland is the second-favorite destination for Kizer of the 89 mock draft analysts who think he’s going in the first round. The Browns were the pick of 22 of those individuals, while the Arizona Cardinals — who hold pick #13 — were chosen by 23 analysts.
While about half of 49 mock drafts released in the last 7 days don’t think Kizer will be among the first 32 picks, Arizona is the second most-popular option. Ten individuals slotted him at #13.
“CONNECTED” EXPERTS EVEN MORE BEARISH
While anyone can make a mock draft and publish it online, there are only a few individuals who are talking regularly to decision makers on NFL teams.
These are the “connected” guys, who usually work for major sports networks or publications. To find them, we used Twitter and picked the top 20 most followed draft experts. The list includes ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay; NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks, Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Zierlein and Casserly; CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco, Dane Brugler and Will Brinson and Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller.
In that group of 20, 12 experts think Kizer won’t be picked on Day 1. Of the eight believers, Kizer’s matches are the Cardinals (Brugler, ClevelandBrowns.com’s Nathan Zegura and ESPN Cleveland’s Tony Grossi), Buffalo Bills (Casserly), Browns (FOX Sports’ Pete Schrager), Houston Texans (Rotoworld’s Josh Norris and Miller of Bleacher Report) and Kansas City Chiefs (WKBW-TV’s Joe Buscaglia).
(SB Nation’s Benne who, to my knowledge, doesn’t publish a mock draft, predicts the Texans will sign former Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo.)
The number of Twitter followers is an imperfect science, so we decided to also consider the ratio of followers to those the analyst was following. (We’re calling it the “listener ratio.”) This subset features many of the same “connected” guys, but also includes Advance Media’s Chris Fedor, SEC County’s Connor Reilly, SB Nation’s Dan Kadar and CBS Sports’ Rob Rang.
Of this group of 20, 10 think Kizer won’t be picked in the first round. The ten believers have Kizer going to the Bills, Cardinals, Chiefs and Texans.
Both Miller and Jeremiah spoke to MMQB recently about the somewhat confusing popularity of mock drafts. Miller told the publication that “his rankings are his eyes and his mock drafts are his ears.” Jeremiah echoed that, saying, “Mock drafts, for me, are solely based off what I am hearing.”
DeShone Kizer’s Position in Mock Drafts
Draft analyst | Publication | Date of Mock | Kizer at... | Team |
---|---|---|---|---|
Draft analyst | Publication | Date of Mock | Kizer at... | Team |
Aaron Wilson | Houston Chronicle | 3/18/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Adam Gorney | Rivals | 3/11/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Adam Kurkjian | Athlon Sports | 2/20/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Andre Simone | BSN Denver | 2/28/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Andrew Gribble | ClevelandBrowns.com | 3/07/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Andrew Juge | This Given Sunday | 3/21/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Andrew Mason | DenverBroncos.com | 3/05/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Anthony Broome | 247 Sports | 3/07/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Anthony Messina | Sports Blog | 3/10/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Art Stapleton | The Record (N.J.) | 3/03/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Ben Standig | CSN Mid-Atlantic | 3/21/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Bob McManaman | The Arizona Republic | 2/16/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Brad Weiss | FanSided | 3/22/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Brennan Smith | The Salt Lake Tribune | 3/20/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Brent Sobleski | Bleacher Report | 3/21/2017 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Brian Johannes | NFL Draft Geek | 2/01/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Brian Mazique | Forbes | 3/21/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Bryan Luis | INSC Magazine | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Bucky Brooks | NFL.com | 3/20/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Carl Cockerham | With the First Pick | 3/17/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Chad Reuter | NFL.com | 3/15/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Charean Williams | Fort Worth Star-Telegram | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Charley Casserly | NFL.com | 3/07/2017 | 31 | Buffalo Bills |
Charlie Campbell | WalterFootball | 3/20/2017 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Chris Burke | Sports Illustrated | 3/22/2017 | 29 | San Francisco 49ers |
Chris Fedor | Advance Media (Cleveland) | 3/08/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Chris Ransom | Draft Utopia | 3/14/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Chris Roling | Bleacher Report | 3/18/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Cole Thompson | The Draft Wire | 3/07/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Connor Hughes | NJ.com | 2/28/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Connor Reilly | SEC Country | 3/12/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
D. Orlando Ledbetter | Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 2/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Dan Bilicki | Toronto Sun | 3/01/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Dan Duggan | NJ Advance Media | 3/13/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Dan Kadar | SB Nation | 3/20/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Dan Schmelzer | NFL Spin Zone | 2/27/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Dan Wilkins | The Score | 3/07/2017 | 6 | New York Jets |
Dane Brugler | CBS Sports | 3/21/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Daniel Jeremiah | NFL.com | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Danny Kelly | The Ringer | 3/14/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
DaRon Frost | Pro Players Insider | 2/26/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Dave Birkett | Detroit Free Press | 3/15/2017 | 10 | Buffalo Bills |
David Harrison | The Pewter Plank | 3/03/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
David McCracken | Bleacher Report | 2/21/2017 | 20 | Denver Broncos |
David Wyatt | Gang Green Nation | 2/16/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Dieter Kurtenbach | Fox Sports | 3/16/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Eddie Brown | San Diego Union-Tribune | 3/10/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Eliot Shorr-Parks | NJ Advance Media | 2/23/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Emily Kaplan | MMQB | 3/07/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Eric Edholm | Yahoo! | 2/10/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Eric Galko | The Sporting News | 3/13/2017 | 57 | Houston Texans |
Erik Lambert | NFL Mocks | 3/06/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
George Stockburger | NFL Mocks | 3/10/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Jacob Loque | Baltimore Beatdown | 3/08/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
James Kratch | NJ Advance Media | 2/20/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jared Dubin | CBS Sports | 3/21/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Jared Sherman | CSNPhilly.com | 3/20/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jason B. Hirschhorn | Sports on Earth | 3/08/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jason Lieser | Palm Beach Post | 3/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jay Skurski | The Buffalo News | 1/29/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Jayson Braddock | Scout | 3/22/2017 | 32 | Cleveland Browns |
Jeff Mullen | NFL Draft Geeks | 3/15/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Jeff Risdon | RealGM | 2/10/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Joe Buscaglia | WKBW-TV (Buffalo) | 3/07/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Joe Malfa | Turn on the Jets | 2/28/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Joe Redemann | numberFire | 3/03/2017 | 6 | New York Jets |
John Harris | Washington Post | 3/21/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
John Manuel | Fanspeak | 3/22/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
John McClain | Houston Chronicle | 3/18/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jon Dove | With the First Pick | 3/11/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jonathan K. Henson | Revenge of the Birds | 3/20/2017 | 57 | Houston Texans |
Jonathan Valencia | Breaking Football | 1/25/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Joseph Zucker | Bleacher Report | 3/06/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Josh Norris | Rotoworld | 3/13/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Justin Bales | FF Today | 3/06/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Justin Rogers | The Detroit News | 3/21/2017 | Not in the first round | |
Justis Mosqueda | Bleacher Report | 1/23/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Keet Bailey | Breaking Football | 3/17/2017 | 57 | Houston Texans |
Keith Mullins | Cowboys Wire | 2/28/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Kevin Hansen | Eat Drink and Sleep Football | 3/03/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Kristopher Knox | Bleacher Report | 3/22/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Kyle Crabbs | FanRag Sports | 3/06/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Kyle Davis | With the First Pick | 3/09/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Lance Zierlein | NFL.com | 2/22/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Lou Pickney | DraftKing.com | 3/09/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Luke Easterling | The Draft Wire | 3/16/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Mark Easson | MyNFLDraft.com | 3/08/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Mark Eckel | NJ Advance Media | 3/20/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Matt Burke | Metro.us | 2/27/2017 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Matt Falk | Draftseason | 3/20/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Matt Lombardo | NJ Advance Media | 3/06/2017 | 10 | Buffalo Bills |
Matt Miller | Bleacher Report | 3/07/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Matthew Olson | Real Sport | 3/10/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Matthew Urben | SideLion Report | 3/21/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Maurice Moton | Bleacher Report | 3/09/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Max Himelstein | NFL Draft Blitz | 3/03/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN | 3/22/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Michael Pallas | The Jet Express | 2/06/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Michelle Bruton | Bleacher Report | 3/21/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Micky McKeon | Mockout | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Mike Farrell | Rivals | 3/11/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Mike Kaye | First Coast News | 2/09/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Nate Davis | USA Today | 3/07/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Nathan Zegura | ClevelandBrowns.com | 3/07/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Nicholas Goss | NESN | 3/07/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Nick Klopsis | Newsday | 2/27/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Nick Rodriguez | Endzone Score | 3/14/2017 | 17 | Washington Redskins |
Nora Princiotti | The Washington Times | 3/20/2017 | 32 | New Orleans Saints |
Oliver Connolly | All 22 | 3/01/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Patrick Maks | ClevelandBrowns.com | 3/07/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Paul Banks | The Sports Bank | 3/08/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Paul Hudrick | CSNPhilly.com | 2/05/2017 | 10 | Buffalo Bills |
Pete Prisco | CBS Sports | 3/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Peter Schrager | Fox Sports | 3/21/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Randy Gurzi | NFL Spin Zone | 3/09/2017 | 77 | Arizona Cardinals |
Richard Sena | Vavel | 2/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Rob Rang | CBS Sports | 3/20/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Rob Staton | Seahawks Draft Blog | 3/16/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Robert Davis | Football is Future | 2/22/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Russell Brown | NFL Mocks | 3/06/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Ryan Griffith | Breaking Football | 2/25/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Ryan McCrystal | DraftAce | 2/17/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Ryan Wilson | CBS Sports | 3/22/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Sam Farmer | Los Angeles Times | 3/02/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Samuel Fuller | FullerMetrics | 3/06/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Scott Krinch | CSN Chicago | 2/07/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Scott Polacek | Bleacher Report | 3/06/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Staff | DraftSite.com | 3/21/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Staff | DraftTek | 3/22/2017 | 36 | Chicago Bears |
Staff | DraftBlaster.com | 3/13/2017 | 105 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Staff | Fantasy Football Prophet | 2/28/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Staff | NFLMock | 3/17/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Stephen Cohen | Seattle Post-Intelligencer | 3/16/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steve Palazzolo | Pro Football Focus | 3/16/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steve Serby | NY Post | 2/25/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Steve Shoup | Fanspeak | 3/21/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steve Silverrman | Bleacher Report | 2/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steven Petrella | Land of 10 | 3/22/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Steven Ruiz | For the Win/USA Today | 3/07/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Tab Bamford | Daily Chicago Sports Tab | 3/11/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Terez A. Paylor | Kansas City Star | 3/17/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Tim Campbell | Live 4 Sport Network | 3/17/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Todd McShay | ESPN | 3/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Tom Downey | Chat Sports | 3/09/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Tony Grossi | ESPN Cleveland | 3/13/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Vasilis Lericos | Baltimore Beatdown | 3/07/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News | 2/21/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Walter Cherepinsky | WalterFootball | 3/21/2017 | 38 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Will Brinson | CBS Sports | 3/16/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Will Carroll | ALL 22 | 1/24/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Xavier Cromartie | College Football Metrics | 2/23/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Zach Goodall | Big Cat Country | 3/13/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |