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Ten of the top 20 most-followed NFL Draft experts don’t think former Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer is a first-round selection.
Kizer’s position after a ho-hum NFL Combine - paired with some recent trades involving quarterbacks - has had mock draft analysts rethinking their position on the Toledo product.
Among those skeptical that Kizer will be taken during the first 32 picks are:
- ESPN’s Mel Kiper, who last published Feb. 15. He didn’t have Kizer in either of his two mocks this year.
- ESPN’s Todd McShay, who released his third mock Wednesday. Kizer hasn’t appeared in any previous iteration.
- NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, who unveiled a new mock Monday.
- Rival’s Mike Farrell (last published Feb. 9), CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco (Feb. 27) and Will Brinson (March 9), NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks (March 2) and Lance Zierlein (Feb. 22), the Houston Chronicle’s Aaron Wilson (Sunday), Los Angeles Times’ Sam Farmer (March 6).
As for highly-followed analysts who still believe in Kizer, he’s projected to be:
- the No. 2 pick of the San Francisco 49ers (Fox Sports’ Peter Schrager, March 9),
- the No. 10 pick of the Buffalo Bills (Seahawks Draft Blog’s Rob Staton, Feb. 22),
- the No. 13 pick of the Arizona Cardinals (The Ringer’s Danny Kelly, Houston Chronicle’s John McClain, ESPN Cleveland’s Tony Grossi, CBS Sports’ Dane Brugler and Nathan Zegura of ClevelandBrowns.com)
- the No. 25 pick of the Houston Texans (Rotoworld’s Josh Norris, Monday);
- and the No. 27 pick of the Kansas City Chiefs (WKBW-TV’s Joe Buscaglia, March 7).
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Before the Combine, analysts were gravitating toward the Cleveland Browns’ 12th pick. Then, last Thursday, the Browns traded for Houston Texans’ quarterback Brock Osweiler. Cleveland is reportedly shopping Osweiler. But some analysts now think the Clemson Tigers’ Deshaun Watson or the North Carolina Tar Heels’ Mitchell Trubisky is a more likely pick for the struggling Ohio franchise. Other mock drafts have started to put Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes ahead of Kizer, as well. Mahomes is also a popular pick for the Texans at No. 25.
The Texans and Denver Broncos are considered the most interested teams in Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, who will either be released or traded soon.
In studying the 140 mock drafts available, as many people have Kizer being selected before the Texans pick as have him going after that.
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The numbers don’t change that much if I weight the mock draft according to each writer’s fanbase. (For this, I used the admittedly-not-perfect Twitter follower count of each anaylst). The selection of Kiper, McShay, Jeremiah and all those who had Kizer after the first round - but did not specify an exact position - were assigned No. 33.
The top 20 analysts held 77.20 percent of the vote, so it’s no great surprise to see Kizer end up at No. 26 (basically either the Texans or the Chiefs) in the weighted vote.
A third analysis - the median pick of top 50 analysts (by follower count) - yielded similar results. In this projection, Kizer goes No. 27 to the Chiefs.
The Cardinals have no overtaken the Browns as the most picked destination among the mock drafts analyzed. Twenty-two analysts think he’s going there, with 20 thinking he’ll still end up in Cleveland. There are now 51 analysts (36 percent of the group) who think Kizer won’t go in the first round.
There have been 53 mock drafts released in the last seven days. Kizer is outside the first round in 25 of those (47 percent). He is the pick of the Texans in 11 of those drafts and the pick of the Cardinals in an additional nine drafts.
DeShone Kizer in Mock Drafts
Draft analyst | Publication | Date of Mock | Kizer at... | Team |
---|---|---|---|---|
Draft analyst | Publication | Date of Mock | Kizer at... | Team |
Brad Weiss | FanSided | 3/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Chris Burke | Sports Illustrated | 3/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Dave Birkett | Detroit Free Press | 3/15/2017 | 10 | Buffalo Bills |
Jason Lieser | Palm Beach Post | 3/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jeff Mullen | NFL Draft Geeks | 3/15/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Pete Prisco | CBS Sports | 3/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Todd McShay | ESPN | 3/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Walter Cherepinsky | WalterFootball | 3/15/2017 | 38 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Chris Ransom | Draft Utopia | 3/14/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Danny Kelly | The Ringer | 3/14/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Kristopher Knox | Bleacher Report | 3/14/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Nick Rodriguez | Endzone Score | 3/14/2017 | 17 | Washington Redskins |
Staff | DraftSite.com | 3/14/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Brent Sobleski | Bleacher Report | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Bryan Luis | INSC Magazine | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Charean Williams | Fort Worth Star-Telegram | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Charlie Campbell | WalterFootball | 3/13/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Dan Duggan | NJ Advance Media | 3/13/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Dan Kadar | SB Nation | 3/13/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Dane Brugler | CBS Sports | 3/13/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Daniel Jeremiah | NFL.com | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Eric Galko | The Sporting News | 3/13/2017 | 57 | Houston Texans |
Josh Norris | Rotoworld | 3/13/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Matt Falk | Draftseason | 3/13/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Micky McKeon | Mockout | 3/13/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Rob Rang | CBS Sports | 3/13/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Staff | DraftTek | 3/13/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Staff | DraftBlaster.com | 3/13/2017 | 105 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Tony Grossi | ESPN Cleveland | 3/13/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Zach Goodall | Big Cat Country | 3/13/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Aaron Wilson | Houston Chronicle | 3/12/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Chris Roling | Bleacher Report | 3/12/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Connor Reilly | SEC Country | 3/12/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
John McClain | Houston Chronicle | 3/12/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Adam Gorney | Rivals | 3/11/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Brian Mazique | Forbes | 3/11/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jon Dove | With the First Pick | 3/11/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Mike Farrell | Rivals | 3/11/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Tab Bamford | Daily Chicago Sports Tab | 3/11/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Anthony Messina | Sports Blog | 3/10/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Ben Standig | CSN Mid-Atlantic | 3/10/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Eddie Brown | San Diego Union-Tribune | 3/10/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
George Stockburger | NFL Mocks | 3/10/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Jared Dubin | CBS Sports | 3/10/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Luke Easterling | The Draft Wire | 3/10/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Matthew Olson | Real Sport | 3/10/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Kyle Davis | With the First Pick | 3/09/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Lou Pickney | DraftKing.com | 3/09/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Maurice Moton | Bleacher Report | 3/09/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Randy Gurzi | NFL Spin Zone | 3/09/2017 | 77 | Arizona Cardinals |
Tim Campbell | Live 4 Sport Network | 3/09/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Tom Downey | Chat Sports | 3/09/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Will Brinson | CBS Sports | 3/09/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Carl Cockerham | With the First Pick | 3/08/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Chris Fedor | Advance Media (Cleveland) | 3/08/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Jacob Loque | Baltimore Beatdown | 3/08/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Jason B. Hirschhorn | Sports on Earth | 3/08/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Paul Banks | The Sports Bank | 3/08/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Ryan Wilson | CBS Sports | 3/08/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Staff | MyNFLDraft.com | 3/08/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Andrew Gribble | ClevelandBrowns.com | 3/07/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Anthony Broome | 247 Sports | 3/07/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Charley Casserly | NFL.com | 3/07/2017 | 31 | Buffalo Bills |
Cole Thompson | The Draft Wire | 3/07/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Dan Wilkins | The Score | 3/07/2017 | 6 | New York Jets |
Emily Kaplan | MMQB | 3/07/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Joe Buscaglia | WKBW-TV (Buffalo) | 3/07/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Matt Miller | Bleacher Report | 3/07/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Nate Davis | USA Today | 3/07/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Nathan Zegura | ClevelandBrowns.com | 3/07/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Nicholas Goss | NESN | 3/07/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Patrick Maks | ClevelandBrowns.com | 3/07/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Steven Ruiz | For the Win/USA Today | 3/07/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Vasilis Lericos | Baltimore Beatdown | 3/07/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Erik Lambert | NFL Mocks | 3/06/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Joseph Zucker | Bleacher Report | 3/06/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Justin Bales | FF Today | 3/06/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Kyle Crabbs | FanRag Sports | 3/06/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Matt Lombardo | NJ Advance Media | 3/06/2017 | 10 | Buffalo Bills |
Russell Brown | NFL Mocks | 3/06/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Samuel Fuller | FullerMetrics | 3/06/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Scott Polacek | Bleacher Report | 3/06/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Steven Petrella | Land of 10 | 3/06/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Andrew Mason | DenverBroncos.com | 3/05/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Art Stapleton | The Record (N.J.) | 3/03/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
David Harrison | The Pewter Plank | 3/03/2017 | 25 | Houston Texans |
Joe Redemann | numberFire | 3/03/2017 | 6 | New York Jets |
Kevin Hansen | Eat Drink and Sleep Football | 3/03/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Max Himelstein | NFL Draft Blitz | 3/03/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Bucky Brooks | NFL.com | 3/02/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Sam Farmer | Los Angeles Times | 3/02/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steve Shoup | Fanspeak | 3/02/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Dan Bilicki | Toronto Sun | 3/01/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Oliver Connolly | All 22 | 3/01/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Andre Simone | BSN Denver | 2/28/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Connor Hughes | NJ.com | 2/28/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Joe Malfa | Turn on the Jets | 2/28/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Keith Mullins | Cowboys Wire | 2/28/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Staff | Fantasy Football Prophet | 2/28/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
D. Orlando Ledbetter | Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 2/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Dan Schmelzer | NFL Spin Zone | 2/27/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Matt Burke | Metro.us | 2/27/2017 | 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
Nick Klopsis | Newsday | 2/27/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Peter Schrager | Fox Sports | 2/27/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Richard Sena | Vavel | 2/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steve Silverrman | Bleacher Report | 2/27/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
DaRon Frost | Pro Players Insider | 2/26/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Ryan Griffith | Breaking Football | 2/25/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Steve Serby | NY Post | 2/25/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Eliot Shorr-Parks | NJ Advance Media | 2/23/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Michelle Bruton | Bleacher Report | 2/23/2017 | 6 | New York Jets |
Stephen Cohen | Seattle Post-Intelligencer | 2/23/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Xavier Cromartie | College Football Metrics | 2/23/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Lance Zierlein | NFL.com | 2/22/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Rob Staton | Seahawks Draft Blog | 2/22/2017 | 10 | Buffalo Bills |
Robert Davis | Football is Future | 2/22/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
David McCracken | Bleacher Report | 2/21/2017 | 20 | Denver Broncos |
Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News | 2/21/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Adam Kurkjian | Athlon Sports | 2/20/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
James Kratch | NJ Advance Media | 2/20/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Ryan McCrystal | DraftAce | 2/17/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Steve Palazzolo | Pro Football Focus | 2/17/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Bob McManaman | The Arizona Republic | 2/16/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Chad Reuter | NFL.com | 2/16/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
David Wyatt | Gang Green Nation | 2/16/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Dieter Kurtenbach | Fox Sports | 2/16/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
John Harris | Washington Post | 2/15/2017 | 10 | Buffalo Bills |
Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN | 2/15/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Eric Edholm | Yahoo! | 2/10/2017 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Jeff Risdon | RealGM | 2/10/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Mike Kaye | First Coast News | 2/09/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Scott Krinch | CSN Chicago | 2/07/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Michael Pallas | The Jet Express | 2/06/2017 | Not in the first round | n/a |
Paul Hudrick | CSNPhilly.com | 2/05/2017 | 10 | Buffalo Bills |
Brian Johannes | NFL Draft Geek | 2/01/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Jay Skurski | The Buffalo News | 1/29/2017 | 12 | Cleveland Browns |
Jonathan Valencia | Breaking Football | 1/25/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Will Carroll | ALL 22 | 1/24/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Justis Mosqueda | Bleacher Report | 1/23/2017 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers |
Mark Eckel | NJ Advance Media | 1/10/2017 | 3 | Chicago Bears |
Jonathan Valencia | Breaking Football | 1/25/2017 | 13 | Arizona Cardinals |