NFL Draft 2017: Half of Top Analysts Think Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer Isn’t a First Round Pick

Ten of the top 20 most-followed NFL Draft experts don’t think former Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer is a first-round selection.

Kizer’s position after a ho-hum NFL Combine - paired with some recent trades involving quarterbacks - has had mock draft analysts rethinking their position on the Toledo product.

Among those skeptical that Kizer will be taken during the first 32 picks are:

• ESPN’s Mel Kiper, who last published Feb. 15. He didn’t have Kizer in either of his two mocks this year.
• ESPN’s Todd McShay, who released his third mock Wednesday. Kizer hasn’t appeared in any previous iteration.
• NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, who unveiled a new mock Monday.
• Rival’s Mike Farrell (last published Feb. 9), CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco (Feb. 27) and Will Brinson (March 9), NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks (March 2) and Lance Zierlein (Feb. 22), the Houston Chronicle’s Aaron Wilson (Sunday), Los Angeles Times’ Sam Farmer (March 6).

As for highly-followed analysts who still believe in Kizer, he’s projected to be:

• the No. 2 pick of the San Francisco 49ers (Fox Sports’ Peter Schrager, March 9),
• the No. 10 pick of the Buffalo Bills (Seahawks Draft Blog’s Rob Staton, Feb. 22),
• the No. 13 pick of the Arizona Cardinals (The Ringer’s Danny Kelly, Houston Chronicle’s John McClain, ESPN Cleveland’s Tony Grossi, CBS Sports’ Dane Brugler and Nathan Zegura of ClevelandBrowns.com)
• the No. 25 pick of the Houston Texans (Rotoworld’s Josh Norris, Monday);
• and the No. 27 pick of the Kansas City Chiefs (WKBW-TV’s Joe Buscaglia, March 7).

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Before the Combine, analysts were gravitating toward the Cleveland Browns’ 12th pick. Then, last Thursday, the Browns traded for Houston Texans’ quarterback Brock Osweiler. Cleveland is reportedly shopping Osweiler. But some analysts now think the Clemson Tigers’ Deshaun Watson or the North Carolina Tar Heels’ Mitchell Trubisky is a more likely pick for the struggling Ohio franchise. Other mock drafts have started to put Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes ahead of Kizer, as well. Mahomes is also a popular pick for the Texans at No. 25.

The Texans and Denver Broncos are considered the most interested teams in Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, who will either be released or traded soon.

In studying the 140 mock drafts available, as many people have Kizer being selected before the Texans pick as have him going after that.

Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

The numbers don’t change that much if I weight the mock draft according to each writer’s fanbase. (For this, I used the admittedly-not-perfect Twitter follower count of each anaylst). The selection of Kiper, McShay, Jeremiah and all those who had Kizer after the first round - but did not specify an exact position - were assigned No. 33.

The top 20 analysts held 77.20 percent of the vote, so it’s no great surprise to see Kizer end up at No. 26 (basically either the Texans or the Chiefs) in the weighted vote.

A third analysis - the median pick of top 50 analysts (by follower count) - yielded similar results. In this projection, Kizer goes No. 27 to the Chiefs.

The Cardinals have no overtaken the Browns as the most picked destination among the mock drafts analyzed. Twenty-two analysts think he’s going there, with 20 thinking he’ll still end up in Cleveland. There are now 51 analysts (36 percent of the group) who think Kizer won’t go in the first round.

There have been 53 mock drafts released in the last seven days. Kizer is outside the first round in 25 of those (47 percent). He is the pick of the Texans in 11 of those drafts and the pick of the Cardinals in an additional nine drafts.