2016 Vegas Win Totals - Big Ten, SEC, and PAC-12

For both college football fans and degenerate gamblers, the releasing of Vegas's win total over/unders is an interesting week. While the endless "way too early" top 25 start coming out almost as soon as the previous season is over, the over/unders actually show someone putting their money where their mouth is. It also gives fans a look of how experts think certain conference races may play out. Despite Vegas usually being the best prognosticators in the business, there's still a few lines that look like they were pulled out of left field.

For reference, these win totals are only for teams' regular season schedule.

SEC

It's not a huge surprise to see Alabama and LSU at the top of this list. Both are expected to compete for the conference and national championships. The third team, however, is a bit surprising. Tennessee has been the subject of quite a bit of hype lately. The Vols went 8-4 in the regular season last year with close losses to Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas and Alabama. Their schedule is slightly easier than last year's trading Oklahoma for Virginia Tech and Arkansas for Texas A&M. That said, nine wins seems way more likely than 10. They have a rough four game stretch against Florida, @Georgia, @Texas A&M, and Alabama. If they split those games which seems like the most likely result, they'd have no margin for error the rest of the way.

At the bottom of the conference, Texas A&M, after their disaster of an offseason will have issues getting to bowl game this year. The Aggies had two different QBs leave the program, and have nosedived in the eyes of future recruits after a weird Twitter rant by an assistant coach after another player decommited. They only have three for sure wins on the schedule, and will be heavy underdogs to Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss. While it's possible they steal one of those games, they'll still need to pick up wins against the middle of the SEC. Look for Kevin Sumlin to potentially be unemployed after the season is over.

Big Ten

For what feels like the first time in years, Michigan is above Ohio State in a list of Big Ten teams. Despite unprecedented hype that Irish fans hope will end with a couple embarrassing face plants, the Wolverine's schedule is laughably easy. They leave the state of Michigan just three times, and play eight games at the Big House. Although their three toughest games are all on the road, few expect Iowa or Michigan State to be as good as they were last season. Even with losses to both Ohio State and Sparty, Michigan should still hit ten wins.

Wisconsin, on the other hand, got no favors from the Big Ten schedule makers this year. In addition to a huge game against LSU at Lambeau Field to start the season, they face the three best teams from the Big Ten East (Ohio State, and trips to Michigan and Michigan State in back-to-back weeks). They also have tricky road games at Iowa and Northwestern in their own division. The tough schedule combined with the difficulty in breaking in a new QB makes Wisconsin winning six or fewer games a real possibility.

PAC-12

The PAC-12, like last season, looks short on Playoff contenders, but long on solid teams. It's tough to see too much separating the middle of the conference. That said, Arizona State sticks out as a team that's rated a bit too low. The Sun Devils lost three games decided by one possession last year when they went 6-7. This year, they have a slightly easier schedule, and should be able to make it to six wins.  Southern Cal at 7.5 also sticks out, but with a brutal schedule (Bama and ND in non-conference) and a coaching change, their line seems right.

Since Stanford also plays a tough schedule and is replacing Kevin Hogan at QB (although Keller Chryst was a very highly rated recruit), I'll take them to "only" go 8-4. After an awkwardly placed bye week following a tricky season opening game against Kansas State, the Cardinal faces Southern Cal, UCLA, Washington, Washington State, and the Irish in consecutive weeks. Three of the five games are on the road, and they also have a trip to Eugene lurking near the tail end of the schedule. If there was ever a year for Stanford to come back down to Earth under David Shaw, this year looks to be the one.