Rankings Review: End of Regular Season

The end of season run in was not kind to the Irish as they fell out of the major polls and saw their projected seeding drop from a potential top four seed to a mid-level one. After knocking off Louisville at home, ND reached the inside of the top 20, but a 2-3 finish to the season led to the Irish falling out of all human polls. ND experienced a similar drop in the computer rankings as well. Much like the human polls, the Irish dropped from the low 20s to the mid 30s during their recent cold stretch. What should be most concerning to Irish fans was the usually reliable Irish offense dropping from first in the country by a large margin to third behind Michigan State and Iowa State. After the Louisville game, ND was scoring 125 points per 100 possessions. After the end of the regular season, the Irish are sitting at 119.8. The Irish had their worst offensive performance of the season at home against Miami, had their second worst at Florida State, and their fifth worst output in Atlanta against Georgia Tech. The two games against Miami and Florida State were particularly noteworthy as they were the only games of the season where the Irish were below both 100 and 90 points per 100 possessions. On the bright side, the Irish offense was better than their season average in the NC State game to finish the regular season, so they may have figured out the issues that were ailing them. For more about some changes to the Irish offense, see JoeSchu's piece. Thankfully, the defense has improved over early in the season. The Irish were outside the top 200 for most of the season, but currently sit at 191st.

Thankfully, the Irish shouldn't be sweating out a bid situation on Selection Sunday since their resume is already solid enough. The Irish have a chance to improve their seeding with a nice NCAA Tournament run, but a loss to Duke in the ACC Quarters probably won't harm their seeding much either. All three Bracketologies have the Irish as a seven seed. Palm at CBS has the Irish facing off against South Carolina in Brooklyn. The Gamecocks are in the 50s in KenPom, and have a much stronger defense than offense. With a win, they would probably face second seeded West Virginia. The Mountaineers play a unique style that includes lots of pressing and a much faster tempo than the Irish. SB Nation's Bracketology projects a matchup with UConn in St. Louis in the first round. Like South Carolina, the Huskies feature a much stronger defense than offense, but are actually rated ahead of ND in KenPom at 31. With a win, the Irish would likely face Xavier in the second round. According to KenPom, Xavier is probably slightly overseeded on the two line as they are rated 14th in overall efficiency. Joe Lunardi sees the Irish facing VCU in their opening game. Like the other potential opponents, VCU has a much stronger defense than offense as they're 16th in adjD, but 87th in adjO. The second round matchup would be against Oklahoma in Oklahoma City which is possibly the worst scenario the Irish could face. Obviously things can and will change significantly during championship week, but at the very least it's good to know the Irish are all but guaranteed a bid in the big dance.