Early Look at Bovada's Win Total Over/Unders

The SEC West is a jumbled mess

Alabama Crimson Tide
Over 9½ (-150, 2/3)
Under 9½ (+110, 11/10)

Auburn Tigers

Over 8½ (-200, 1/2)
Under 8½ (+150, 3/2)

Arkansas Razorbacks

Over 8½ (+150, 3/2)
Under 8½ (-200, 1/2)

LSU Tigers
Over/Under 8½

Mississippi Rebels
Over/Under 8½

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Over 7 (-150, 2/3)
Under 7 (+110, 11/10)

Texas A&M Aggies
Over 7½ (-250, 2/5)
Under 7½ (+175, 7/4)

While Alabama looks to be favored to win the SEC West, there's very little separating the rest of the division. Mississippi State's O/U is set at 7, and Auburn's is set at 8.5 (with the odds favoring the over). Looking at these teams' schedules, I like the over for Mississippi State, and the under for Texas A&M. The Bulldogs don't play a single power five team in the non-conference, and have Kentucky in one of their games against the East. It's not hard to imagine Mississippi State winning three more games against Missouri and the rest of the West. Texas A&M, on the other hand, has a tough game against Arizona State in Houston to open the season to go with three easy non-conference games. Their games against the East (Vanderbilt and South Carolina) are winnable as well. Last season, however, A&M won just one game against another team from the West (in OT against Arkansas) and were blown out by Alabama, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. While the Aggies hope that adding John Chavis will improve their defense, it's not hard to imagine them winning exactly seven games just like last season.

Picks:

Over: Mississippi State

Under: Texas A&M

ACC: Florida State still the favorite

Florida State Seminoles
Over/Under 9½ (-110)

Clemson Tigers
Over 8½ (-250, 2/5)
Under 8½ (+175, 7/4)

North Carolina Tar Heels
Over/Under 8

Virginia Tech Hokies
Over/Under 8

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Over 7½ (-200, 1/2)
Under 7½ (+150, 3/2)

Louisville Cardinals
Over 7½ (-140, 5/7)
Under 7½ (EVEN, 1/1)

Miami Hurricanes
Over 6 (-200, 1/2)
Under 6 (+150, 3/2)

Even after losing Jameis Winston and host of other key contributors to the NFL draft, FSU is still the team to beat in the ACC. They have a pretty manageable schedule which will hinge on trips to Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Florida. Clemson is the best bet to knock off the Noles, and gets their toughest games of the season (FSU, GT, and ND) at home. Among the rest of the ACC, Louisville looks to be a good bet to get to eight wins. They open the season with Auburn at the Georgia Dome, and finish it with a trip to Lexington to play Kentucky. In between, there aren't a ton of guaranteed wins on the schedule, but I like their chances against NC State, BC, Wake Forest, Virginia, and Pitt. Even if they drop a game or two in there, they have enough margin for error to get to eight wins. On the other hand, I don't see how VT has a higher O/U than Louisville. The Hokies open the season with Ohio State, and it's not hard to see them losing at either Purdue or East Carolina who they lost to at home last year. Their ACC schedule isn't too tough, but considering their issues with Wake Forest and the rest of the conference last year, I don't have much faith in their ability to win more than six or seven games.

Picks

Over: Louisville

Under: Virginia Tech

Big Ten: Ohio State, and everyone else

Ohio State Buckeyes
Over 11 (-200, 1/2)
Under 11 (+150, 3/2)

Wisconsin Badgers
Over 10 (+150, 3/2)
Under 10 (-200, 1/2)

Michigan State Spartans
Over 9½ (-180, 5/9)
Under 9½ (+140, 7/5)

Iowa Hawkeyes
Over/Under 7½

Michigan Wolverines
Over/Under 7½

Minnesota Golden Gophers
Over 5½ (-200, 1/2)
Under 5½ (+150, 3/2)

Looking at the schedule of the top two teams. it's probable that Wisconsin and Ohio State will be favored in 23 of the 24 games they play. Other than Wisconsin's game against Alabama to open the season, the Badgers trip to Lincoln it's hard to find losses on the Badger's schedule. Ohio State hosting Michigan State and games in Ann Arbor and Blacksburg are their biggest question marks, but they'll be favored in all of them. If I had to put money on either, I'd take the under on Wisconsin because of the coaching change, but their conference schedule sets up very well for them to win the East. Michigan State at 9.5 is interesting, and whether they hit the over or under could hinge on a week 2 game at home against Oregon. Towards the middle and bottom of the conference, Iowa and Minnesota stand out. Minnesota destroyed Iowa 51-14 last season, yet their line is set two games lower. Minnesota does have a harder OOC schedule with a probable loss to TCU opening the season, but if Minnesota wins their next three games against G5 teams, the Gophers will have a decent chance to win every game in the Big Ten except the one in Columbus. Iowa, on the other hand has two very tossup OOC games at Iowa State and against Pitt. Even though their Big Ten schedule is pretty favorable, it's tough to see Iowa getting to eight wins if they drop two of their non-conference games.

Picks:

Over: Minnesota

Under: Wisconsin, Iowa

Can anyone challenge Baylor and TCU in the Big XII

Baylor Bears
Over 10 (-140, 5/7)
Under 10 (EVEN, 1/1)

TCU Horned Frogs
Over 10 (-200, 1/2)
Under 10 (+150, 3/2)

Oklahoma Sooners
Over 9 (EVEN, 1/1)
Under 9 (-140, 5/7)

West Virginia Mountaineers
Over 8 (+150, 3/2)
Under 8 (-200, 1/2)

Kansas State Wildcats
Over/Under 7

Texas Tech Red Raiders
Over 6 (+110, 11/10)
Under 6 (-150, 2/3)

Like last season, unless injuries play a part, it's hard to see TCU and Baylor losing more than two games in the regular season. The game between the two schools is scheduled for the last week of the regular season, and the Big XII is hoping both teams will be undefeated heading into the matchup. Baylor has an easier non-conference schedule, but both should enter Big XII play undefeated. Of the two, I like TCU since they won't be breaking in a new QB, but both should get to 10 wins. Oklahoma is a bit more interesting. They travel to Tennessee in the non-conference, and everyone seems to be pumping up Tennessee as a potential sleeper in the SEC East. The tail of their schedule is pretty brutal. They finish the season at Baylor, at home against TCU, then travelling to Oklahoma State for the Bedlam Game. It's not hard to see them finishing the season 0-3, and if they lose any of their games to Texas, West Virginia, or at Kansas State, it will be tough for the Sooners to get to 10+ wins. Kansas State won nine games in the regular last year, and with an easier schedule in 2015, taking the over looks like an easy pick. They play zero P5 teams in the non-conference, and should have no trouble with Kansas or Iowa State. I like the Wildcats chances to win three more games in the rest of the Big XII schedule. Lastly, Texas Tech seems over-valued at 6. The Red Raiders won just four games last year, and with another tough game in the non-conference against Arkansas, it's hard to find two more wins. They'll have their chances against the middle of the conference, and should beat KU and ISU, but I have much more confidence in Texas, KSU, OSU, and WVU than Tech.

Picks:

Over: Kansas State

Under: Texas Tech, Oklahoma

No clear favorite in the PAC 12

Oregon Ducks
Over 9½ (-140, 5/7)
Under 9½ (EVEN, 1/1)

UCLA Bruins
Over 9½ (+150, 3/2)
Under 9½ (-200, 1/2)

Stanford Cardinal
Over 9 (+140, 7/5)
Under 9 (-180, 5/9)

USC Trojans
Over 8½ (-200)
Under 8½ (+150)

Arizona State Sun Devils
Over 8½ (EVEN, 1/1)
Under 8½ (-140, 5/7)

Arizona Wildcats

Over 7½ (-150, 2/3)
Under 7½ (+110, 11/10)

Utah Utes
Over/Under 7½

Washington State Cougars
Over/Under 5

The PAC-12 has been Oregon's to lose the last few seasons, but with Marcus Mariota moving on to the NFL, and questions about whether FCS transfer Vernon Adams will be able to enroll in Eugene, Oregon is facing more question marks than in recent years. They have a tough game in East Lansing early in the year, and face both Arizona State and Southern Cal from the south. They're still probably the team to beat, but there's more teams in it this year. UCLA is probably the favorite in the South, but it's all very tight as everyone but Colorado has a shot to win the division. Looking at all the teams in the South, I like the Utes to get to eight wins, and Arizona State to get to nine. Both teams will probably have to win marquee non-conference matchups to get there (Michigan at home for Utah, Texas A&M in Houston for ASU). At the bottom, Washington State will have issues getting to six wins. They'll be replacing Connor Halliday, and after losing to Rutgers (in a home game in Seattle) to open last season, they'll travel across the country to face the Scarlet Knights in New Jersey. Their PAC-12 schedule isn't too bad, but the closest game to a gimmie is Colorado at home. Their season will come down to whether they can win tossup games against Oregon State, Cal, and Washington. They certainly could win all of these games, but I don't have much faith in the Cougs.

Picks:

Over: Arizona State, Utah

Under: Washington State

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Over 9 (-150, 2/3)
Under 9 (+110, 11/10)

Pick: Over

I'm an optimist, but I reserve the right to change my mind after the next offseason incident.