College Comps: Fuller, Adams & Kizer

Notre Dame had a trio of players - DeShone Kizer, Will Fuller, and Josh Adams - put up strong statistics in 2015. Who do those numbers compare closely with that might give us a hint how their careers will end up?

Will Fuller

Player	Team	Year	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
Will Fuller	Notre Dame	2015	56	1145	20.5	13

Elite company: With this junior season, Fuller became only the 7^th player since 2000 to average 20 yards per catch and collect over 1100 yards and 12 TDs. The other big names on this list include:

• The Atlanta Falcons all-time leading receiver (Roddy White)
• The sophomore season from Charles Rogers, who was a consensus All-American as a junior and #2 overall pick in the 2003 overall draft before the Lions and off-field issues derailed his career
• Mike Evans, the #7 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft

Rk	Player	Year	School	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
1	Brandon Middleton	2003	Houston	55	1250	22.7	14
2	Charles Rogers	2001	Michigan State	57	1200	21.1	12
3	Roddy White	2004	Alabama-Birmingham	71	1452	20.5	14
4	William Fuller	2015	Notre Dame	56	1145	20.4	13
5	Ashley Lelie	2001	Hawaii	84	1713	20.4	19
6	Mike Evans	2013	Texas A&M	69	1394	20.2	12
7	Aldrick Robinson	2010	Southern Methodist	65	1301	20.0	14

Looking at this list though, there isn't one clear comparison for Will Fuller. Charles Rogers' 2001 season is close, but many of the other receivers played in higher-volume passing offenses or don't match the eye-test in terms of style of play. Digging a little deeper (and relaxing the search criteria, a few intriguing options came up:

Player	Team	Year	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
Will Fuller	Notre Dame	2015	56	1145	20.5	13
Golden Tate	Notre Dame	2008	58	1080	18.6	10
Lee Evans	Wisconsin	2003	64	1213	19.0	13

Golden Tate's sophomore year statistics do include the benefit of a 13^th game in the form of the 2008 Hawaii Bowl, where he went off for 177 yards and three scores. I mean, while we're on the subject and approaching bowl season...

Charlie Weis coaching from the booth! David Grimes presumably making coaches happy! Mentions of a bowl losing streak! Reminiscing on that game is a combination of fun and weird, and makes you appreciate where this program is today.

The ideal situation for 2016 would be Will Fuller returning and making a similar leap to the one Tate made in the next year, when he won the Biletnikoff Award with 93 receptions/1496 yards (16.1 average)/15 touchdowns. Comparing the two though, I think they have some slight differences in their strengths, although both are electric with the ball in their hands and gigantic threats downfield. The clearest difference is Golden Tate's hands and reliability over the middle of the field, which really improved over the course of his Notre Dame career. Fuller I believe is even better in getting behind the defense, which I would have thought was impossible, but to reach Tate's level needs to show more consistency doing things like catching slants on 3^rd and 7. Their situations are far from identical - different offensive schemes, Golden benefitting from an incredibly accurate Jimmy Clausen in 2009 (and playing opposite Michael Floyd when he was healthy) - but I think the final comparison may be the most accurate.

Lee Evans I think is the closest comparison to Will Fuller, and the numbers from his senior season in Madison are very similar. Both play in offenses that, while different in style, place a strong emphasis on the run and as a result allow chances for explosive receivers to capitalize on play action or a secondary playing up to stop the ground game. Evans' pre-combine measurables are also extremely close to what I'd expect from Fuller - 5'10, 197 lbs, and running a 4.39 in the 40. Not sold? Check out these highlights (but PSA, you probably want to mute your speakers).

Evans went on to a long and successful NFL career, still averaging 15.8 yards per catch in the pros and providing many long touchdowns, mostly with the Bills. I can easily imagine Fuller with a similar career or better if he continues to refine his hands, route-running, and add strength.

Josh Adams

Player	Team	Year	Carries	Yds	YPC	TD
Josh Adams	Notre Dame	2015	102	760	7.5	5

While we could easily look at CJ Prosise in this comparison as well, what makes Josh Adams stand out is that he put up these numbers in limited opportunities as a true freshman. While ND recruiting insiders predicted that Adams was underrated coming from a low-level of competition in Pennsylvania and recovering from an ACL tear, I don't think anyone anticipated just how good Adams would be so soon.

Elite Company: While 76 players have rushed for over 7 yards a carry on a minimum of 100 attempts, here's the list of P5 conference running backs that have pulled it off as true freshman since 2000:

Player	Year	School	Att	Yds	Avg	TD
Nick Chubb	2014	Georgia	219	1547	7.1	14
C.J. Spiller	2006	Clemson	129	938	7.3	10
Jamaal Charles	2005	Texas	119	878	7.4	11

So two NFL-caliber running backs, and one who if healthy is a likely first round pick? I feel pretty good about seeing Josh Adams on this list. Just missing the cut are some absurd freshman seasons, like LaMichael James in 2009 (1,546 yards on 6.7 YPC) and Steve Slaton in 2005 at West Virginia (1,128 yards on 5.5 YPC) because averaging over seven yards a carry is really, really hard.

Would Adams have been able to maintain his high average if he was the primary back for the entire season? Hard to say, but with a limited number of carries the true freshman was extremely explosive - he had touchdown runs of over 60 yards in each of his two starts, 70-yard score against UMass, and even without an extremely long run against Pitt averaged 7.4 yards per carry on 20 attempts after CJ Prosise went out with an injury early. 20 of his 102 carries were explosive (10 yards or more) - that's just absurd.

Looking further for a comparison that blends both production and style, there's a few more names that I think are a slightly better fit - I like Nick Chubb as a comparison, but wanted to look for someone that's not in the middle of their NCAA career, and while Adams has shown breakaway speed he's not a track star like Spiller or Charles.

Player	Team	Year	Carries	Yds	YPC	TD
Josh Adams	Notre Dame	2015	102	760	7.5	5
Jonas Gray	Notre Dame	2011	114	791	6.9	12
Isaiah Pead	Cincinnati	2009	121	806	6.7	9
Tevin Coleman	Indiana	2013	131	958	7.3	12

Opening up the criteria away from just true freshman and lowering the YPC requirement of 7, these names caught my eye. Jonas Gray is a bigger back than I'm guessing Adams will be even with more time with Paul Longo, but had a similar combination of speed/power and split time with Cierre Wood. Could Adams put up similar numbers if sharing the ball with Prosise and Folston next year? There's only going to be so many carries to go around, but that's assuming Prosise returns and everyone stays healthy, knock on wood.

Pead is interesting since he put up those numbers in a Brian Kelly offense, but I think Tevin Coleman is the top choice for the closest comparison. That stat line is from Coleman's sophomore season when he broke onto the scene in the Big Ten (without the quality of blocking or passing threat Adams enjoyed). At 6'1 Coleman is also a taller back that possesses a similar combination of great footwork and strength with speed to hit home-runs (but not quite a sprinter). Adams may not be quite to Coleman's level yet, but could he improve to a similar level as a sophomore and upperclassman? Absolutely.

DeShone Kizer

Like Adams, no one saw Kizer's debut coming - it's fun to look back at the depression after the Virginia game when his ability to both run and pass were unknown quantities. These stats could be even more eye-popping, but only include 10 full games:

Player	Team	Year	Passer Rating	Pass Yds	Completion %	Rush Yds	Total TD
DeShone Kizer	Notre Dame	2015	151.8	2596	63.3	504	28

Elite Company: Other freshman (redshirt or true freshman) with passer rating over 145, over 2400 passing yards and 500 rushing yards since 2000:

	Player	Yr	Team	Comp	Att	%	Pass Yds	TD	INT	Rtg	Rushes	Rush Yds	Avg	TD
9	J.T. Barrett	2014	Ohio State	203	314	64.6	2834	34	10	169.8	171	938	5.5	11
16	Marcus Mariota	2012	Oregon	230	336	68.5	2677	32	6	163.2	106	752	7.1	5
27	Johnny Manziel	2012	Texas A&M	295	434	68.0	3706	26	9	155.3	201	1410	7.0	21
47	Dan Lefevour	2006	Central Michigan	247	388	63.7	3031	26	10	146.2	132	521	3.9	7

Again, an exclusive club featuring two Heisman winners and a player who probably has a decent shot at it next year, plus another former Brian Kelly player. While Barrett, Mariota, Johnny Football, and Lefevour all have bigger overall numbers, again it's important to remember that they had the benefit of 2-3 extra games to add to their stats. Who does DeShone Kizer remind me of in this group? More than anyone, Dan Lefevour.

Kizer doesn't possess the other-worldly agility of Manziel or the speed of Barrett or Mariota, but is an effective runner with long strides like the bigger Lefevour (6'3, 230 lbs). Their numbers in their first year as starters are extremely similar, and if Kizer keeps the starting job I think he may mirror a similar trajectory. Lefevour increased his completion % every year, from 63.6% his freshman season to 69.7% as a senior. The Feve was only a 1,000 yard rusher his sophomore season, and I don't know that Brian Kelly wants Kizer to run much more than he did as a freshman - 8-12 times a game to keep the defense honest unless it's a critical contest?

I do think Kizer has a higher ceiling than Lefevour - while their stats are similar, Kizer's came against much better competition, and while Lefevour became more accurate his passer rating didn't improve dramatically over his four years (146.2, 133.5, 144.2, 150.3). Kizer's decision making and TD-to-INT ratio should continue improving with experience and coaching, and he has the luxury of stacked recruiting classes at both offensive line and skill positions.

Any other players that come to mind for Fuller, Adams, Kizer or any other players on the current roster?