Projected point spreads can be used to determine how many games Notre Dame is expected to win this year. Here are my point spread projections the rest of the year and the results from simulating Notre Dame's season.
| Opponent | Loc | Spread | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | A | 6.0 | 31 |
| Michigan | H | -2.5 | 58 |
| Miami | N | -12.5 | 85 |
| Stanford | H | -3.5 | 61 |
| BYU | H | -6.5 | 71 |
| Oklahoma | A | 12.5 | 15 |
| Pittsburgh | H | -13.5 | 87 |
| Boston College | A | -11.0 | 82 |
| Wake Forest | H | -13.5 | 87 |
| USC | A | 15.5 | 10 |
Initial guesses for the point spreads came from beyondthebets.com. To convert point spreads to win probabilities, I use a standard deviation of 12 points. Then I simulated Notre Dame's season 2 million times to come up with a chart showing the probability of each win total, shown below. 
The average wins comes out to 7.9, with a 9.1 percent chance of winning 10 or more games and a 13.7 percent change of winning 6 or fewer. Let me know if there are any point spreads you think are way off, or have any other suggestions.
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