Off Balance: Inexperience and the Irish Receivers

Before wringing our hands about a lack of sufficient talent among a receiving corps long outshone by the domination of one Michael Floyd, let's consider the real effects of that outshining on opportunities for other receivers to make an impact.

The seemingly tepid play of our receiving corps has, I’m hopeful, been made to look that way by the propensity of our passing plays to go to wide receiver extraordinaire Michael Floyd and tight end par excellence Tyler Eifert (and, for the first half of 2010, Kyle Rudolph). In almost 70% of the games played in Kelly’s first two seasons at Notre Dame (18 of 26), Floyd and Eifert (or Rudolph, in the games he played) snagged 50% or more of the receptions per game. In fact, in 8 of 26 games (31%), more than 60% of receptions went to Floyd and Eifert or Rudolph. That’s significant.

Here are the numbers by game:

Opponent – receptions by WR Floyd and TE Rudolph or Eifert / total receptions (%)

2010

Purdue – 10 / 17 (58%)

Michigan – 13 / 21 (61%)

MSU – 14 / 26 (53%) + 10 to Riddick

Stanford – 9 / 26 (35%) + 7 to Riddick

BC – 5 / 24 (21%) + 9 to Riddick

Pitt – 12 / 24 (50%) + 7 to Riddick

WMU – 13/20 (65%)

Navy – 11 / 25 (Eifert and Kamara, Floyd injured) (44%)

Tulsa – 16 / 33 (48%)

Utah – 6 / 13 (46%)

Army – 7 / 13 (54%) + 4 to Toma

USC – 14 / 20 (70%)

Miami – 10 / 15 (67%)

2011

USF – 18 / 28 (64%) + 6 to Jones

Michigan – 17 / 27 (63%) + 6 to Riddick

MSU – 8 / 18 (44%)

Pitt – 12 / 24 (50%) + 6 to Riddick

Purdue – 16 / 25 (64%) + 5 to Jones

Air Force – 14 / 27 (52%) + 8 to Riddick

USC – 11 / 27 (41%)

Navy – 7 / 19 (37%) + 4 to Riddick

Wake Forest – 8 / 14 (57%)

Maryland – 17 / 30 (57%) + 7 to Toma

BC – 12 / 24 (50%) + 5 to Toma, Jones

Stanford – 12 / 17 (71%)

FSU – 11 / 19 (57%) + 4 to Toma

It looks like the ball is being distributed well when you just list receptions: in the last 2 seasons, never have fewer than 5 guys (including wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs) received the ball in a game (there were 5 receivers in 5 games), and in 20 of the 26, six or seven receivers caught the ball (8 did in 1 game).

However, in no games in the past two years have more than 2 guys other than Floyd and Eifert or Rudolph caught the ball more than twice in a game (this excludes RBs catching laterals).

In fact, in 12 of 26 games, outside of Floyd and Eifert or Rudolph, just one guy had more than 2 receptions; in another 5 games, nobody besides them caught the ball more than twice.

There were 6 games in 2010 when guys other than Floyd and Eifert or Rudolph made a significant number of receptions: Riddick had 7-10 receptions against each of MSU, Stanford, BC, and Pitt before getting hurt; Kamara and Jones took 6 and 5 against Navy when Floyd was injured; then Toma had 4 against Army. In 2011, Jones had 6 against USF and 5 against Purdue, and also 3 against Wake and 5 against BC when receptions were scarce; Riddick had 6 against UM and Pitt, and 8 against AFA; Toma had 7 against MD, 5 against BC, and 4 against FSU.

What all this suggests is that beyond the two playmakers—the super-stud Floyd and the stud TE—our receivers really haven’t had the opportunity to do much. Most of them only once in a blue moon had the ball thrown at them more than 3 or 4 times a game. Now, maybe the ball is being thrown around much more than the reception numbers suggest, and the other guys just aren’t making catches, but with Floyd’s and Eifert’s (and Rudolph’s) drops factored in, I don’t think the reception data actually skews it that much.

It seems like the limited performance from our receivers could hinge more on the QB’s and the coach’s decisions of who to send the ball to than on a genuine lack of depth or adequate talent at receiver. What QB (especially one with Rees’s particular set of skills) or coach would make an effort to get the ball to Floyd and a stud TE less frequently? Without Floyd, necessity will, I think, give our receivers the experience and opportunity they need to make plays and use their skill.

I can add to this a few more observations:

1. The percentage of receptions going to Floyd and Eifert or Rudolph per game did not shift in any significant way over the last two seasons, suggesting that there hasn't been a concerted effort to systematically distribute the ball more or less to other receivers outside of individual games. Floyd and Eifert or Rudolph tended to receive the ball more in the later part of 2010 and in the earlier part of 2011.

In 2010, from Purdue through Navy (games 1-8), Floyd and Rudolph (and Eifert v. WMU and Navy) had on average 45% of the receptions (if you take out Navy, which was an outlier because Floyd didn't play, that increases to 49%). From Tulsa to Miami (games 9-13), 57% of the receptions on average went to Floyd and Eifert. (These averages are taken by averaging per-game percentages, rather than total percentages of all receptions.)

2. The ball actually hit 8 different receivers when the Irish lost to Navy in 2010, but that distribution was in part due to the absence of the three top receivers, Floyd, Riddick (averaging almost 60 yards per game prior to Navy), and Rudolph; top rusher (at that point) Allen was done for the season by the third quarter due to nagging injuries, as well; and after controlling the ball for almost 9 minutes in the first quarter, the Irish offense had possession for about 5 minutes in each of the subsequent quarters. All in all, an injury-decimated offense and a defense unable to get off the field meant desperation to get the ball to anyone and everyone.

3. In 2011, from USF to Purdue (games 1-5), 57% of the receptions on average went to Floyd and Eifert. From AFA to BC (games 6-11), 49% of receptions on average went to Floyd and Eifert; they had 57% of receptions v. FSU. In the end-of-season loss to Stanford, a remarkably high 71% of receptions went to the same pair. (These averages are taken by averaging per-game percentages, rather than total percentages of all receptions.)

4. The 3 games with the lowest percentage of receptions going to Floyd and Rudolph or Eifert in the last two seasons came with Crist at QB in 2010: Floyd and Rudy brought down just 35% v. Stanford and 21% v. BC; Eifert took 16% against Navy in 2010, when Floyd was out with an injury (see above). The next lowest came against Navy in 2011, when Floyd and Eifert took 37% of the receptions. (They never received less than 41% of receptions in a game outside of these.)

5. Against only Michigan (61%) and WMU (65%) in 2010, Crist sent over 60% of receptions to Floyd and Rudolph or Eifert. Rees sent the highest percentages of receptions to Floyd and Eifert against USC in 2010 (70%) and Stanford in 2011 (71%, with Hendrix). Rees sent over 60% of receptions to Floyd and Eifert against USC (70%) and Miami (67%) in 2010, and in 2011, against USF (64%, with Crist), Michigan (63%), Purdue (64%), and Stanford (71%).