The Unofficial Guide to Rebuilding Notre Dame: Part One
This is the first of a four-part series focusing on rebuilding and winning at Notre Dame today and for the future.
Rebuilding.
That word generates a lot of opinion, reaction, and argument from Notre Dame fans in 2012.
This is because it's hard to define and can mean a lot of different things to various people when broken down in the world of college football and the Notre Dame program.
For some, it means fixing what is broken.
For others it means restoring the past.
And for someone else, it means a remodeling effort.
The truth is that Notre Dame needs a little of all the detailed definitions above, but the problems and roadblocks inherent in such rebuilding are numerous---the greatest of which may be a popular culture based on tradition that has made it difficult to understand, recognize, or accept the need for rebuilding
This series of articles is not an excuse for failure, an apology for Brian Kelly's first two seasons, nor a prediction for major success in the coming years at Notre Dame, but rather testimony that honest and patient rebuilding can lead to a restoration of winning in South Bend.
Tradition is Dead
One of the biggest troubles surrounding Notre Dame is the belief held by some that the Irish program doesn't need rebuilding in the first place.
If you think the past success of Rockne, Leahy, and even Holtz means Notre Dame doesn't have to rebuild, you might want to stop reading now in order to continue living in your protected bubble. That is because Notre Dame is creeping up on 20 years without being a consistent national contender---and when you're trying to rebuild a program---a collection of dusty banners, trophies, and awards mean very little.
Don't get me wrong, tradition is important at Notre Dame and plays many roles for the University and most specifically as a tool to bring in talented recruits, but once those athletes step on campus their future success on the field has nothing to do with Gus Dorias or Chris Zorich.
Surely no coaching staff would begin a new career at Yale and believe the main ingredient to their future success is tradition just because the Bulldogs used to be great once upon a time.
Yet, the belief still exists that since Notre Dame was once great, it's road back to glory should be easy---or at least easier than the vast majority of other programs.
"What do you mean it's been almost 20 years?"
Unfortunately, it is not easy but more difficult than ever---especially when a rebuilding coach is trying to fix what's broken, yet is being assailed for not properly restoring the past and being undercut at every corner because his remodeling effort is deemed to go against tradition.
Again, this is not to say that tradition isn't important or plays a role in a successful program. What it means is that in the case of a nearly 20-year slumping Notre Dame, it does more harm than good. It can blind people from seeing real progress and sets the bar so high that potential rebuilding can be foresaken^ because it doesn't meet a certain level of excellence in a certain amount of years.
^This is something that could happen, and does not mean Davie, Willingham, or Weis were in fact rebuilding properly or deserved more time to do so.
For the best tradition is the tradition of winning in the here and now, and the worst tradition is the tradition of winning in the past and being unable to rebuild for tomorrow.
A New Notre Dame
There's not much need to go into all of the ways that Notre Dame has changed as a university since the internet age began, but suffice to say that it's been somewhat significant. In athletics, the changes in the college football world since the early 1990's have been enormously significant.
Together, both set of changes have decreased the margin of error at Notre Dame to an extremely low level.
Like the refusal to admit a rebuilding process needs to take place to begin with, some also refuse to accept the social, cultural, academic, and athletic changes that have impacted Notre Dame.
Some include:
- The significance of the NBC contract has been diminished.
- Scholarship reductions across the NCAA.
- Recruiting (while still strong) doesn't approach the embarrassment of riches it once did.
- Many of the nation's best players don't drool at the thought of playing at Notre Dame---in some cases, as with Louis Nix, they practically don't even know Notre Dame exists.
- Classes and academic life are harder than ever.
- The SEC and other programs seemingly playing by different rules.
- The general campus culture has broadened to new and spectacular heights---removing Notre Dame from the football factory label as much as any time in history.
Additionally, while Notre Dame has had successful athletic teams in past decades, never before have all the teams been as collectively dominant as they are today---all while the former king in football still struggles to reach its once proud heights.
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Keys to Rebuilding: Keep the Coaching Staff as Solidified as Possible
It's inevitable that any successful coaching staff will be poached, and a program that isn't performing well may be better off bringing in new coaches anyway, so there's going to be a natural turnover.
Notre Dame experienced a shakeup this offseason, but was able to retain the three most important coaches in Diaco, Alford, and Martin. Moving forward it will be important for rebuilding to keep these teachers and recruiters around to be able to solidify that consistent message: This is the type of players we recruit at Notre Dame, this is the type of defense we play, these are the attributes we are looking for at the high school level, and this is how we do things at Notre Dame.
Don't underestimate the power and appeal of a steady and reliable message from Notre Dame for more than 3 to 5 years, and how a consistent approach to coaching and recruiting will make player development easier and allow high schools all over the country to be more comfortable with what Notre Dame has to offer.
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For example, what is the number one selling point for Notre Dame coaches to prospective recruits? What are they using as the primary tool to sway Davonte Neal right now?
The 40-year decision.
Was that the case in 1928? Or 1948? Or 1967?
Sure, academics have always been important at Notre Dame, but the 40-year decision has become the ultimate tool for recruiting whereas in the past it was undoubtedly winning and other assorted football related themes.
That is why rebuilding needs to be seen through this lens of a new Notre Dame.
It is highly unlikely that any future Notre Dame coach brings about a long run of national dominance, or given the state of affairs since 1994, come in and turn the clock back to 1965 after 30 months. If that's the only way you'll be satisfied with a coach in South Bend, prepare to take disappointment with you to your grave.
The issue of rebuilding isn't about lowering expectations, it's about setting the program up for a long-term future that will allow Notre Dame to achieve it's goal---winning a national title again.
Read that last sentence again for clear understanding of this Guide.
A new history needs to be written at Notre Dame; A new plan based on rebuilding and patience needs to be undertaken. The past means very little to this future endeavor, and strict sentiments of what past coaches did by year three should not automatically determine if a current coach has failed or not.
When Notre Dame is far different than every school in the country, it's unwise to point to what other programs have done and believe that is what has to be done in South Bend. When Notre Dame has changed and grown as a university it is rash to point at what the Irish program has done in the past and believe that is exactly how the script must be followed.
For if there is a college team that will do things a little differently, and win a title in an unconventional way, it is probably going to be Notre Dame.
Don't expect success to follow the same path as past Notre Dame teams, and get comfortable with the Irish taking an unfamiliar historical route to sustained success.
So What Needs to be Fixed? What is Rebuilding Anyway?
It's incredibly useful for Notre Dame fans to define what needs to be done and understand exactly what rebuilding means today.
Luckily the physical structures are in place for success---something that wasn't true 10 years ago--- but they also haven't had time to take root over many classes.
The Guglielmino athletic complex is state-of-the-art and provides players with everything they need in terms of preparation. The training table has arrived and gives players proper year-round nutrition. The locker room is spacious and updated. The stadium is large and full on each home Saturday.
For the most part these are the easy fixes---the ones that a wealthy university should take care of---but they are ones that are not the core problems. They are helpful for sure (much like a video board or consistent playing surface would be), and some are more important than others (proper nutrition far outweighs having music played through the PA system), but they are periphery concerns in comparison to the real issues surrounding the players and coaches themselves.
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Keys to Rebuilding: Beat More Ranked Teams
Over the five-year Weis era, Notre Dame beat just one football team that finished the season ranked---Penn State in 2006 sneaking in at No. 24 in the AP and No. 25 in the Coaches Poll.
In fact, in the 16 seasons from 1994 to 2009, the Fighting Irish beat just five ranked teams that went on to win at least 10 games that year, while Brian Kelly has achieved this in back-to-back seasons with victories over Utah in 2010 and Michigan State this past season.
It's a hopeful sign for sure, but Kelly still needs to improve as he is only 2-6 (2-7 if you count 2011 USC) versus teams who end the season ranked. Most coaches are going to have head scratching losses from time to time, but Notre Dame desperately needs that regain that upset gene, pull closer to .500 against ranked teams, and especially hold down the home field advantage and make opponents worry about competing inside the House that Rock Built.
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The much more difficult and important aspects to rebuilding revolve around coaching, consistency, mental toughness*, continuity, building sustainable depth, and fixing team weaknesses and lack of production.
*Mental toughness is a huge part of the rebuilding effort at Notre Dame---but at the same time it is so hard to measure or quantify. For those who have played sports at a reasonably high level, you know how important it is, and really you know it when you see it, or conversely, how obvious it is when a team doesn't have it. Mental toughness should definitely be a high priority for Kelly & Co. right now.
Putting the methods of the current Brian Kelly regime aside for the moment, we may agree the levels of the above program health indicators were at absolutely dreadful lows following the 2009 season.
In recent years Notre Dame has hired three coaches unprepared to take on the responsibilities of rebuilding in one form or another, and this affected the culture of the football team in an enormous way.
Weis crying: No, Notre Dame did not win this game.
The team was never able to win at a high level or sustain a consistent level of winning. It was always peaks and valleys---with far too many valleys and no breakthrough upsets to turn the tide.
The mental toughness was downright atrocious at times, with even the smallest of negative circumstances defeating the team long before the end of the game.
At many positions (defensive line especially) the depth was nowhere near where it should be for a strong D-1 team.
And also many positions were terribly unproductive and dependent upon 2 or 3 players carrying that side of the ball (especially on offense).
You can cite the recruiting rankings all you want, but when a coach comes into the above situation and is also forced to coach within the parameters of Notre Dame's rules (no JUCO's, no grayshirting, no oversigning, no player dorms, no easy classes, etc.) the ability to rebuild and reload becomes an epic challenge.
The easy solution is to simply hire a top-level coach, which makes sense since the head coach is mostly responsible for continuing an already built foundation or rebuilding a new one. But with every failed coaching regime, the chances to land the top-level coach dwindles, the margin for error decreases even more, and recruits stop believing in a bright future.
The problem for Notre Dame in the 21st Century is that rebuilding is needed more than ever, yet the patience for such rebuilding is still frighteningly lacking in part because of Irish tradition but also because of the past three failed coaches.
In fact, the Irish are stuck in this bizarre world where some fans can moan about the lack of success for nearly two decades, wail at how far the program has fallen, beat their chests with the lack of dominant play---and then turn right around and refuse to buy into any rebuilding effort.
As long as there remain several positive trends and there are no 3 or 5-win seasons, the Irish faithful should be very hesitant to move on to yet another new coach. Since Kelly hasn't dipped to that level yet, and has improved the program from its 2007-09 malaise, the patience levels should be reasonably high.
Coming up in part two:
Is Brian Kelly Rebuilding?
How Long Should Kelly be Allowed to Rebuild?
The Power of Not Sucking.
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Schedule
It seems to me, and a lot of other college football fans who are not ND fans, that the Irish need to get serious about their schedule. They do play traditional games with Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, and USC – but often the rest of their schedule is dotted with the likes of UConn, Tulsa, and (I know, some ancient commitment of “friendship”, et al.) Navy. An 8-4 record, which a lot of programs would love to have, looks pretty pathetic for the Irish when they have beaten (or in some cases, lost to) such teams.
How about this for a possible solution – the Irish should (have) join(ed) a conference. cough B1G cough The chance to join the B1G came a few years ago, but the Irish (arrogantly, in the eyes of many) turned their nose up at the offer. In this era of Mega Conferences and BCS this and that, being an independent who plays a third of their games vs. D1 no names (even if they play those games in Yankee Stadium or Dublin) makes no sense at all – either from a recruiting standpoint, or from the perspective of trying to once again become nationally relevant.
ND's
schedule is as tough as any in the B1G#. Yes losing to infeior teams sucks(UM -APP ST). In your post you don’t mention Stanford and upcoming games with Oklahoma, Texas, Miami and BYU. If anything the early part of the schedule is too hard and doesn’t allow for a little growth and the building of momentum. Check out tOSU or PSU usual schedules for playing patsies early.
Joining a conference is a different argument but, it’s not the degree of difficulty of NDs schedule that is the poblem.
I disagree with literally everything you said...
have you looked at anyone else’s schedules? Who plays a powerhouse every week? ND is constantly in the top 30 strength of schedule. They have home and home series against Oklahoma followed by Texas in the next few years, not to mention the staples of their schedule (USC, Stanford, Michigan). The rest of their schedule is filled mostly with BCS conference opponents. Their schedule next year is seen as perhaps the biggest obstacle to improving on two straight 8 win seasons. Who do you want them to schedule on top of USC, Oklahoma, Michigan, Michigan State, Stanford, Miami, and BYU? Should they turn Navy, Purdue, and BC into Alabama, LSU, and Oregon? Maybe the Giants or Patriots have an open date this season they can squeeze ND in?
You are clearly ignorant of the conference situation as well, so I won’t even touch that, but you are way off.
I wasn't sure if I should respond to this
One, because I couldn’t stop chuckling to myself.
And two, it’s from a person with a Michigan username and their first post on SBNation.
Needless to say, your argument has nothing to do with this discussion and if it did I might accept ND joining the B1G to weaken the schedule to make it easier to win games.
I just get a kick out of this guy saying our schedule is dotted with the likes of UConn and Tulsa—-two programs that the Irish have played exactly once over 124 years of college football. Plus, they’ve been ranked in recent years as well.
Let’s just move on…..
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 8:28 AM EST up reply actions
6/10
That this is the first comment in the thread tying two hot button issues together, and generating several pointed, contrary responses almost immediately makes this a strong troll attempt. But, like you said, Eric, using a Michigan username and making this your first post on OFD and SBN tipped his hand. Still, credit where credit is due.
by The Guys Get Shirts! on Feb 20, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
The real question is
which one of the staffers is really jc001?
/recs own post
//recs it 6 times more
///replies with satirical song lyrics
////recs reply 12 times
by The Guys Get Shirts! on Feb 20, 2012 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Notre Dame tried to join the Big Ten...
nearly one hundred years ago and was essentially kept out thanks in large part to the efforts of Fielding Yost. I don’t need to go through all of the details here, but this basically led to Notre Dame’s barnstorming schedule, playing from coast to coast against anyone, anywhere, anytime.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
I doubt this could be more inaccurate
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Feb 20, 2012 9:00 AM EST up reply actions
Strength of Scheduling
National scheduling is the best way to avoid the deformed misperceptions that inbreeding regionalism brings.
Using Sagarin’s Strength of Schedule rankings for 2010 and 2011, Notre Dame’s SOS slipped slightly from 22th in 2010 to 25th in 2011. Adding Miami, Okla and BYU, should send make it a top 10 schedule. In the BI0, only Minn compares with SOS of 25 in 2010 and 17th in 2011.
The second hightest ranked SOS in the B10,Nebraska, improved their SOS from 39th to 26th after joining the conference, almost as tough as ND’s.
Many of us think of most of the B10s regular season schedules filled with directional schools or mini-state schools, and their historically weak sisters annually. In 2010, Wisconsin (66th), Ohio State (70th), Northwestern (74th), and Indiana (78th) were some of the weakest in all of the BCS. And those rankings included bowl games for the first three (a BCS game for Ohio State in 2010)!!
Most improved from 2010 (in parentheses). Sagarin’s 2011 rankings:
Minn 17th (25)
Nebr 26th (39, B12)
Ohio St 30 (70)
Penn State 31 (41)
Mich State 38 (57)
Iowa 39 (49)
Mich 40 (23)
Wisc 44 (66)
NWern 46 (74)
Ind 50 (78)
Ill 53 (58)
Purd 65 (52)
Only Michigan and Purdue weakened their schedules. So, where would the SOS of Mich, Mich State and Purdue be without us? Where are their SOS without bowl games against SEC opponents? And, if SOS is a consideration, wouldn’t we weaken our SOS by joining the B10?
by Michael Collins on Feb 20, 2012 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This is likely a product of better play in the Big 10...
across the board and lack of a truly dominant team. There were several “good” teams, but not one that was close to challenging for a national title. Combine that with a historically weak out-of-conference schedule (which boosts everyone’s records, therefore creating the “illusion” of a stronger schedule) and you likely have identified a few key reasons for the improvement.
Yes, ND’s SOS would likely take a hit by joining a conference, as they would be required to play the cellar-dwellers along with the top teams.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
Hard to underestimate
the power of self-delusion when most every conference team is 3-0 after a pitiful non-conference schedule. Indiana, of course, is the exception, finishing with a nine game losing streak with their only win in a 1-11 season against a FCS school. Minn could have been similar but beat Illinois in their season-ending game. How about Illinois who started 6-0 and finished 6-6, losing to Minn, then beating a bad UCLA team in their bowl game?
The B10 had to face the music in bowl games, where we began wondering if they were ever going to get a win – 4-6 overall in the end. Purdue showed itself as 5 points better than a good MAC team. Houston pounded Penn State. Oklahoma crushed Iowa. S.Carolina made Nebraska look bad. A&M silenced Northwestern. Oregon over Wisconsin and Florida over Ohio State. The only good bowl wins were Mich State over Georgia and Michigan over Virginia Tech in OT.
Being independent means you stand on your own, open to whatever constructions people have. Being in a conference means you can hide your mediocrity or push your big brother in front to protect you.
All their SOS’s got a boost from the bowls except Purdue’s.
by Michael Collins on Feb 20, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
If the Big whatever is so great and we suck so bad, and we're so stupid and arrogant for not wanting to play in the Big whatnot, and the Big thing is doing us such a big favor by extending an invitation--which, correct me if I'm wrong, but have they've
never actually extended an invitation….
Anyway, I lost my train of thought in that run-on sentence, but the point is this—given all of the above, why does the Big number care if we don’t want to join? Maybe because we don’t suck as bad as they say?
by Mouth of the South on Feb 20, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Notre Dame's
schedule has many tough games in it. They play BYU, Oklahoma, and Miami in coming years and it is as tough as a Big 10 schedule. If you combine games such as BYU, Oklahoma, and Miami with Michigan, Michigan State, and USC there is 6 out of 12 games of tough opponents with more tough games along the way (Stanford, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest). Also, Ohio State played Marshall, Ohio, and Eastern Michigan in 3 of their first 4 games last year in 2010 and played Akron, Toledo, and Colorado in 3 of the first 4 last season. Can you say cupcakes? ND’s schedule is the same if not tougher than a Big 10 schedule (Ohio State).
"My heroes, my dreams, and my future lay in Yankee Stadium. And they can’t take that away from me."—Derek Jeter
Eric,
we can only hope Kelly is given time to right this ship. We absolutely are playing by “a different set of rules” than the SEC. That is not to say we can’t overcome that but, it will take time and the building of a foundation to do that.
We ND fans wonder how any smart kid could pick another school over ND. We are blinded into thinking that a serious student cannot get a great education at Mich. SC. or others. Though not at 98% those schools do graduate players. Add to that, that those schools have programs for lesser students and we’re behind the eight ball there too. Oh, most of those schools have a little tradition too.
The shouldas and couldas from last season , have taken most of the momentum away from the program right now. With wins last year vs. USF, Mich. and FSU, which shoulda happened and everyone’s in a different state of mind. That said, the sky is falling mantra of so many fans is sometimes maddening to me.
We had a glaring weakness last year at QB. It needs to be fixed. It seems we have two or three good options at the position. You can bet that grooming one of them into a good player is “job 1” of Kelly and his entire offensive staff. They need to identify their guy and build the offense around his skills and allow him to grow while still putting up points. No small task. Grooming that guy may be the single most important thing in Kelly’s tenure at ND.
We have the players at most other positions(secondary needs work) to compete with anyone on our schedule. Will our QB be efficient enough is the $25,000. question.
Quote
Grooming that guy [QB] may be the single most important thing in Kelly’s tenure at ND.
If there’s something that gives me hope it it this. Even with the way the QB play has gone the past two seasons, I like Kelly’s odds at this position. There’s just too much experience in his past and success to boot, with too much talent available, for that position not to become a strength soon.
You may be correct in assuming this will be one of the other Keys to Rebuilding.
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 9:04 AM EST up reply actions
I'm hopeful as well.
But the youth and inexperience of the more talented candidates concerns me in the short term. Kelly really didn’t inherit a great situation at QB.
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
by whiskey OFD on Feb 20, 2012 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
He also managed it somewhat poorly
From using Nate Montana at the end of the first half at Michigan ’10, pulling Crist at the half at USF, and then sticking by Rees instead of making the youth decision on a dead season and getting Hendrix some run. Maybe none of the options were good options but there were better ways to handle most.
Regardless of how the Kelly tenure ultimately shakes out we will likely still debate this for years to come.
I don’t envy the choices that he had to make there. At all. On the upside 2012 may not be any easier from a clear cut decision standpoint!
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
Yep, but that's why we pay him the big bucks
It’s his job to make the right decision and have #2 and #3 ready in case. One could argue that he GOT the job because of his ability to sub Collaros in for Pike at UC and not miss a beat. Now he has to do it again at ND to earn his stay for the long term.
That's very true.
Needless to say it will be highly interesting to see how Kelly manages this situation going forward. It will undoubtedly be the hot button issue heading into the season. Hopefully one of those guys (not named Rees) can pull away as the clear choice to be the starter.
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
How is that the upside?
I guess it’s an upside for us internet guys, if that’s what you meant. But I’d rather be winning and have less to discuss.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 20, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
Somewhat?
I think that’s a pretty tame assessment of that situation.
If you listen to BK’s own “scar tissue” theory, we should have been getting Hendrix much more ready to play throughout last season so that he’d be ready to seriously compete this year. That’s the long-term, program-building strategy. Get the young guy ready, particularly when it is obvious the current guy can’t get it done.
If you subscribe to the “every game matters, you have to win NOW” theory, then why play Rees ahead of Dayne? You can’t have a culture that values the ball as poorly as ND did at the QB position last year and expect to “win now.”
To me, this was bungled in spectacular fashion. Not only was the season a massive disappointment, we’re in no better shape for the upcoming season.
Unfortunately, as this series points out PERFECTLY, there’s not much to be done about it. You may (like me) have serious concerns about BK’s ability to do this job. However, the margin for error is so thin, and the constant churn has what put us in this mess. Dr. Lou isn’t walking through that door, and even if it was the right call to jettison BK, there’s absolutely no one who would take that job if it were open. I’m just hoping BK can grow in to this job. He isn’t in Clifton anymore.
"Program momentum"
what is program momentum? Isn’t that kinda a self-fulfilling prophecy? It’s just saying if ND was more successful last season, it would be a more successful program now. Well yea, but momentum has nothing to do with future game performance.
How did the “momentum” from last year end up? It led to 2 season opening losses. Just win. It has nothing to do with whatever the perceived trend of the program was last December or February. It has nothing to do with signing day or past bowl games or the spring game. It has to do with training better, practicing better, and playing better. If any fan (not you, just a general statement) can’t see that those things are improving massively under Kelly’s regime, then I wish to never speak with them because they are just too ignorant and miserable to waste my time on.
You may be right alstein
In the long run, program momentum means very little.
Especially when it’s always viewed in tiny little 3-game windows or immediately in offseason windows.
It helps, but you still have to come back and continue doing things successfully.
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 9:16 AM EST up reply actions
Alstein
I mostly agree with your thoughts. Though with three more wins last year I think we would have done better at the end in recruiting. Maybe not Shaq Thompson or Nelson Agholor but maybe we don’t have a couple decommits and we pick up another DB. Michigans success (luck) has certainly helped them sustain their “momentum” in recruiting for next year.
I totally agree the program is improving under Kelly. I expect our defense to be stout this coming season. With good QB play our offense could be better too. At least more efficient in the red zone.
How about instead of momentum we call it, winning begets winning.
This.
I tend to think of “momentum” as something more along the lines of “positive external perception.” It just buys BK a little less scrutiny in the short term and perhaps a little more time in the long term.
Totally agree with the gist of what all of you are saying in this little thread.
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
by whiskey OFD on Feb 20, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Program Momentum (try 2)
Program momentum shows up in 2 areas: the first is entirely mental, and likely the biggest reason it’s needed (especially for our current team). The second is on the recruiting and national consciousness front. Both, when working right are like a boulder coming down hill. Good luck to anyone trying to get in the way. The problem is if things go the other direction and the culture of negativity envelopes the program, it takes a miracle to bail it out.
In terms of recruiting/national consciousness, the impact is obvious. We need to spend more time on the right side of marquee wins and less time looking like a blooper reel. Given that recruits haven’t seen us in a meaningful end of season game since they were negative 7 years old, it’s a miracle we still recruit as well as we do.
The other one is a little more nebulous, and one of the many things that the vast majority of fans don’t understand. Missing this point is the reason that reasonable people argue both for great leniency for the head coaches failings and a need to rebuild slowly and that the head coach is failing and needs to be removed immediately. Mental toughness is not something you can teach with a few drills like blocking, instill with a good pregame or halftime speech, or cognitively controlled like footwork. But the coaching staff absolutely needs to teach it, and the players absolutely need to learn it because it’s been missing for many years. It’s picked up from long summers of practicing in the heat, from repetitions at the height of competition (from pee-wee championship games on up) and is something that once lost by a few untimely upsets, can destroy teams. Our basketball team has it right now. They believe they’re supposed to win. They’re too young and stupid to know better. They learned it with a good fighting win and some luck against Louisville, and a rocking crowd plus good 3-pt shooting (and no Fab Melo) against Syracuse. Now they’re a freight train and one or two wins has turned into eight or nine and we’re a team nobody wants any part of. It’s not that our football team can’t pick it up (and quickly), it’s just that the ugly losses mean we have further to push the boulder back to the top of the hill before we can let it start rolling back down the other side.
Lastly, the bright side: 2012 begins with a bunch of winnable games. Navy, Purdue, then two fun ones with Michigan /MSU. Go 3-1 or 4-0, we’ll have some of that momentum going and hopefully it allows us to get that ball going the right direction even before we hit national title contender portion of the schedule.
I don't agree with this notion at all...
if losing destroys your mental toughness, then what mental toughness did you have to begin with? It’s nebulous because people attribute “toughness” to teams that win, so they can’t help but be right. “See how they won? Because they were tough! Told ya toughness wins games!” What about tough teams that lose? What about non-“tough” teams that win? ND has had long summer practices for the past 20 years, just like they did the 20 before then, and they will for the next 20. Who cares? How did the basketball team all of a sudden get “tougher”? They didn’t, they got better.
Losing doesn’t make you lose more, playing poorly does. Winning doesn’t make you win more, playing well does. ND won 4 straight games after USC. Because of momentum, they should have won the last two. They didn’t. There is no empirical evidence, whether at the individual level or team level or in-game or across-game (and certainly not season-to-season) level that momentum has anything to do with anything.
Maybe, just maybe, ND will go 4-0 because it plays well in four games. ND will beat Michigan because it beats Michigan, not because it beat Navy, Purdue, and Michigan State.
How much are we mixing up or confusing mental toughness and momentum?
I don’t necessarily think that teams lose mental toughness when they lose. I don’t really think there’s a huge correlation between momentum and mental toughness either.
For example, I think a team can be in the 8-5 to 9-4 range and be really mentally tough. It depends on how they got to that record and what battles they had to fight.
I think winning gives teams and players more confidence (really that’s what I think of with momentum), but not necessarily more mental toughness. We saw this a lot with Weis’ teams….great starts in 2005 and 2006 and then once they were punched in the mouth they put their tail in between their legs and took some beatings.
Not to get ahead of myself too much, but I think we’re seeing that attitude change. Weis-led ND never would have had a chance against MSU this year, but I sensed the team would come out and play hard—-and they did. There were a couple other instances of that last year as well, all good signs for the future.
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Your first key is, well, key
Having a system in place and sticking to it is critical in college football. I firmly believe that it doesn’t matter what scheme you run (on either side of the ball) as long as you’re consistent in your coaching and the coaches and players buy in. That’s why Nebraska can run the triple option long after everyone else has abandoned it and still win national championships. That’s why WVU can run the 3-3-5 and end the season in the top 10 in total defense (yeah, yeah, Big East blah blah blah).
Look at ND’s past coaches:
Davie – Good defensive coach, and the defenses were usually pretty good, but he was never consistent in his offensive philosophy.
Ty – Just a bad coach. Moving on.
Weis – Good offensive coach, and even managed to rebuild the crater that was the 2007 offense into a top 10 offense in 2009. But he was never consistent with his defensive scheme and kept switching defensive coordinators.
Look at what happened when we finally had the same scheme and same coaches in place on defense last season. It’s a complete 180 from that 2009 “defense.”
I think what will be critical for Kelly over the next few years will be to pick a quarterback and pick a system and stick with it. The offense we saw in 2011 was completely different from what we saw early in 2010. We can’t make a wholesale change like that again.
One Foot Down
On teh Twitterz
by burger23 on Feb 20, 2012 8:55 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Troof
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
He clearly meant a complete 360.
It’s a sad state of affairs when someone realizing the difference between a 180 and a 360 is so exceptional that it must be rec’d.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 20, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Depends on
if you are looking at it from the 50 or the end zone. Call it “alstein’s Theory of Relativity”
by Michael Collins on Feb 20, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
"The offense we saw in 2011 was completely different from what we saw early in 2010. We can’t make a wholesale change like that again."
I’m looking forward to future posts about this shift and think that Kelly’s offensive evolution at ND is extremely interesting because it is so tied up with the QB conundrum and the various stresses it’s placed on the program recently. Here’s the thing, though: how do we move into 2012 with a new (oh, please) starting QB and not make a “wholesale change” from the 2011 offense? If that offense began to function around Rees’s particular skill set and the next QB has a different (oh, please) skill set, won’t that necessitate another offensive shift?
#figureitoutbobby
by fishoutofwater on Feb 20, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Well, that's the question, right?
I’ll talk more about this in either part 3 or a possible part 4 of my “BK Evolution” posts, but Kelly just needs to pick a system and stick with it. The 2010 and 2011 offenses were fairly similar schematically but very different philosophically. If Kelly wants to go back to an up-tempo, no-huddle offense, then great. If he wants to shift to a more pro-style approach (building off what we did last year), then he better be willing to commit to it and get the team and coaches on board. But I want to see in 2013 what I see in 2012.
Again, my main point is, Kelly needs to stick with whatever he chooses. If he wants to start Golson but keep Rees the backup because he has so much experience (just throwing out a hypothetical) then he better demand Rees learn how to run that offense, because you can’t completely change everything when the backup comes in.
One Foot Down
On teh Twitterz
Sounds good.
Still, it seems like unless or until Kelly has precisely the play-making personnel he wants (with depth) at QB, especially, there’s value to adjusting the system (not wholesale, I agree) to that personnel’s strengths. You have to do different stuff with Rees and Floyd than you can do with Golson or Hendrix (or Kiel, for that matter) and an untried, motley crew of receivers. If Rees backed any of them up, could he possibly pull off the same offense? It seems like it just wouldn’t work.
Adherence to a consistent philosophy and scheme is extremely valuable, I agree, but only if you have the right personnel for it. Hopefully Kelly will have that shortly (or does already), but in the meantime, I want him to resist smashing, for ex., pro-style pegs into spread holes when the pro-style peg’s got talent that you need on the field.
#figureitoutbobby
by fishoutofwater on Feb 20, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think it requires a wholesale change...
in that the playbook is not changing. The expectations of the OL and outside WRs should really not change. The differences are in the QB (who is going to be a new QB with a new skillset anyway) and in that RB/slot position that I think is becoming more integrated over time. Is there going to be more of a run-orientation? Probably, given Martin’s history. But it’s not like the players don’t know how to run those plays.
The playbook is the same, what the QB will be able to do with it won’t be. That should be exciting, not daunting.
The key:
give Kelly time to do what needs doing. A quick turnaround is a pipe dream as the program needed an overhaul, which BK is in the process of doing.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
Very succint!
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 9:07 AM EST up reply actions
And in less than 2,000 words?
Commendable.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 20, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Seconded
![]()
I started at 221.6. I'm now 209.6. This will stay in my sig line until I am 190. Keep reminding me of this.
The Japanese History Podcast
by Kelly's Gyros on Feb 20, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
I just have to imagine
that a critical success factor in Swarbrick’s process will be to break the death spiral of firing coaches every 3-5 years. Barring a crater(s) (3-6 win type season), I just have to imagine that the program needs stability so badly that even if he isn’t the “savior coach” BK will be given a longer runway than his predecessors.
An additional factor in my opinion is that firing/hiring process is very difficult at any school, and even more so at ND given the challenges E described. Plus we have a pretty putrid track record when it comes to post-holtz hiring decisions. While I agreed that Charlie needed to go at the time; watching the Randy Edsall experience at Maryland has really colored my POV on just how big of a gamble replacing a coach is. If BK had not come, by all accounts Edsall would have been the guy, which is pretty terrifying.
We all want ND to be great again, I think its just a difference of some people are willing to accept that could require a stage of “consistently good” to fix a foundation that has this many cracks.
As an aside I also think that the most vocal part of the fanbase that isn’t willing accept anything less than instant gratification from ND football is also constantly looking to be right. And candidly its very hard to win at CFB, and even harder for ND than many of the other programs for the reasons Eric laid out (that’s not to say ND doesn’t have many advantages over other programs, I just don’t think they have many over the top programs). I think given that the pessimistic POV is the easy one to take at ND football and can always be defended with “I hope I’m wrong but… [insert 4000 word rant here”. If you are wrong who cares ND is great again, but if you are right you’re sort of this buffet-esk “Oracle of NDN”, that IMO has very little to do with the would be Nostradamuses (nostradmi?) actual predictive abilities.
BACK TO BACK ZERO BLITZES WITH NO SAFETY HELP!! MAKE PLAYS!!
by jpeters6 on Feb 20, 2012 10:42 AM EST reply actions 6 recs
Tremendous post jpeters
I shall rec it.
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
One more thing jpeters...
Can you explain what your avatar is cause I’ve been wondering for a while now.
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
It was rumored MSU replacement DC
H.R Pufnstuf who Mike Valenti wanted to replace Chris Smeland during his epic rant after ND beat MSU in 06. The rant is also the source of my signature.
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/audible choking noise
//scott tenorman of the century
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I am not getting the jokes today.
Please explain the apple sauce. Did he talk about apple sauce in the rant?
by Mouth of the South on Feb 20, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
Made the comment that in all big games, MSU chokes on apple sauce
and then proceeded to make choking noises. You neeeeeeeeeeed to listen to that rant. It’s an all-timer.
I've listened to it 2-3 times, including once pretty recently.
It is fantastic. I just didn’t remember the apple sauce comment. I remember the choking noises.
I love that he refuses to drink tea to help his voice. Kind of a modern-day, sports-related self-flagellation.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 20, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Guaranteed --
I will scream “CHOKED ON APPLESAUCE” at least once during every MSU / ND tailgate I am a part of.
Ahh, okay got it now.
And to reply to your comment a third time…
Yes, it is sad how much of the talk revolving around this subject has devolved into pessimism centering around attempts to fire coaches before they actually are fired.
I’ll talk about this a little bit in the coming parts of this series of course. There’s so much childish in-fighting about “knowing” when a coach is a failure and how “knowing” such a thing makes them a keeper of ND tradition and winning, while believing a coach should get another year means you don’t care about winning and are satisfied with lowering the standards.
We know many other sites constantly break it down to the “I’m right, you’re wrong” cat fights that really don’t address the core issues I wanted to in this series.
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
I think avoiding that breakdown
is a credit to OFD, and part of the appeal (beyond ya know the great content).
I really don’t care too much about where people land on the spectrum so long as they can justify it, extremes of “He’s our coach and can do no wrong let’s get the money raised for the statue and bigger trophy case” and “OMG didn’t win a NC must fire him and go give Nick Saban the rights to replace Mary on the dome with a figurine* of his own likeness**”
Not to scale
*Nick Saban is short
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whoops poor editing
I meant to say those extremes really bother me, because the obviously lack of serious thought that goes into them, anywhere else is pretty amiable to me, even if I don’t agree.
BACK TO BACK ZERO BLITZES WITH NO SAFETY HELP!! MAKE PLAYS!!
Lesson One: Don't run the option in Hurricane Katrina
Lesson Two: Don’t leave your secondary on dinghies when your stupid blitzes never get home. NEVER!
Don't want to steal your thunder...
(or shake it down from the sky), but everything ultimately boils down to one question for me:
Is 8 wins a floor or a ceiling?
I personally think it is a floor. BK inherited a program with some great players but lacked the fundamentals in many areas—mental toughness, conditioning, nutrition, etc. Its like buying a car with all the bells and whistles but has a blown head gasket and a malfunctioning transmission—it looks nice but won’t get you anywhere.
He won 8 games in back-to-back seasons with mediocre QB play, but balanced with a good rushing attack and solid defense. Things will continue to improve, and as the program beats Top 25 opponents with some regularity, the momentum will build. These things take time, especially since today’s recruits weren’t even born the last time ND was a consistent national championship contender.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
Neither?
I don’t think it’s a ceiling, but I suspect there is a floor below 8 wins, and its probably coming this season.
Next year’s schedule is brutal, and I think the QB/WR/DB situation could lead to <8 wins. If BK can avoid the crater though this yea rwe should be set up pretty well for ’13 & ’14.
I think there is a decent chance if things break the right way that BK could have a Frank Beamer/Lloyd Carr type career at ND – lots of good/very good seasons, the occasional great one, and I’m not sure that ND can ask for a lot more than that given its current situation/recent past.
BACK TO BACK ZERO BLITZES WITH NO SAFETY HELP!! MAKE PLAYS!!
by jpeters6 on Feb 20, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well said.
The Davie, Weis and Willingham years were a traumatic head injury.
We’re re-learning critical skills, like tying our shoes and brushing our teeth, or rather, that’s what Kelly’s first two years were about. Let’s hope that years 3-5 are about learning to crawl, then walk, then run, hopefully in quick succession.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 20, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
I want to say that 8 wins is his basement
But I’m not quite ready to say that either, which is another way to say that I wouldn’t be shocked by a 7-win season in 2012.
A season like that wouldn’t bother me much given the circumstances, and depending on how the 2013 and 2014 seasons turn out of course.
A 4-win season in 2012 and I think we’re looking at some hard, hard questions.
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Putting numbers on it gives me pause.
When trying to determine whether or not the arrow is pointing up or down, I think that +/- a couple of Wins and Losses can cloud the issue.
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
by whiskey OFD on Feb 20, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
I completely agree with this
“When trying to determine whether or not the arrow is pointing up or down, I think that +/- a couple of Wins and Losses can cloud the issue.”
I think sometimes we get so wrapped in raw wins or losses that we lose sight of what’s really happening. Take the ‘06 season, for example. 10-3, sounds pretty good, right? But an honest assessment of that team would say the arrow was pointing down. Blown out by the three best teams they played. The offense took a noticeable step backward. The team was loaded with upperclassmen, which meant the following season was always going to be painful (of course, it didn’t have to be THAT bad). Compare that to, well, the ‘11 season. 8-5 doesn’t sound that good, but that team sustained some of the flukiest bounces I’ve ever seen. A ball bounces off of T.J. Jones’ helmet for an INT, Denard picks up a fumbles and runs it in, Dayne Crist bats the ball backwards…I mean, this team received very little in the way of luck. The ‘11 team was much more like a 10-3 team than ’06 was, but the ’06 team ran into a slate of easy opponents and padded its win total. The ’11 team DOMINATED Purdue, Air Force, Navy and Maryland. Weaker opponents, but this stuff wasn’t happening under Weis.
by frank_grimes on Feb 20, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Very wise perspective, Frank.
But at some point those W’s need to start adding up. If we’re not consistently getting to 9+ wins—or showing the capacity to do so in the near future—by Kelly’s fifth year, then maybe we should talk.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 20, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
8 wins is an aspirational floor if anything.
Since we haven’t done better than 8 wins since ’06—and have met or exceeded 8 wins only 3 times in the last decade, we can hardly claim that 8 wins is a current floor.
Once Kelly gets us back to the program level, I would say that 9 wins should be our aspirational floor. But we may need to put up with far fewer wins in the 2-4 years that it will take to get to that level.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 20, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
"The Power of Not Sucking"
I attended this full-day seminar at the Holiday Inn by the airport. Changed my life. Swear to God.
by The Guys Get Shirts! on Feb 20, 2012 11:48 AM EST reply actions
Well prepare for your life to be changed
Again.
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Great work, Eric.
Every fan should read this post for a sobering dose of reality.
'Preciate that
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Consistent messaging and minimal staff turnover
Don’t underestimate the power and appeal of a steady and reliable message from Notre Dame for more than 3 to 5 years, and how a consistent approach to coaching and recruiting will make player development easier and allow high schools all over the country to be more comfortable with what Notre Dame has to offer.
Couldn’t agree more with this. At my company, we’ve found that, most of the time, business units that perform the best are the ones with employees that are the most engaged. Most of the time, the employees that are the most engaged are the ones that have had the same management team for the greatest period of time, for just the reasons Eric cited: consistent expectations and consistent messaging around those expectations. Why would a football team be any different? Replace “employees” with “players” and “management team” with “coaches,” and there you go.
by The Guys Get Shirts! on Feb 20, 2012 2:13 PM EST reply actions
Unfortunately...
I highly doubt ND gets to enjoy that sort of continuity in the next couple of years. I do not expect Martin or Alford to be here 2 years from today, and I would not be surprised if Denbrock and/or Cooks found better jobs elsewhere. Hell, Diaco could find a head coaching job the way the defense continues to get better.
Bringing in another wave of guys that can deliver a consistent message is key to sustainability of a head coach’s regime. Kelly misfired a little with Molnar and Warriner, but he can’t continue to misfire and have the consistency in message that he demands. It’s inevitable to lose good coaches, so consistency is always going to be difficult, but he has to continue to bring in Scott Bookers that will bring that element to the coaching staff.
True, a coach has to continue with that consistent message with new coaches
But I don’t think the ND staff is going to be as depleted as you think.
Especially with a guy like Martin—-I think he’s very close to Kelly and isn’t going to leave for anything but a really, really good job. And I don’t think that job is coming any time soon.
I would put my money on Martin, Diaco, and Alford being here through 2014.
But that’s just me.
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Great work Eric... you sure there's 4 parts? haha
I can’t help but notice this isn’t linked on NDN too… lol
I think I wrote something that was definitely not as well written as yours…
I felt it would be a 4-5 year process with the first step being DEPTH. No more holes… Then focus on line play, followed by moving the team to Florida or Southern California…
I was going to break it up into 6 parts
But that would be obnoxious lol.
Would Texas suffice as well with the move?
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 20, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
Eric,
Great work, I agree with all of your points and they are completely reasonable. This team had back to back seasons of 8-4 and in most places they would take it but this is The University of Notre Dame. We demand excellence and every year Notre Dame’s Football teams can be great but somehow they don’t produce. I think they talent is always there but for one reason or another, they don’t play to their potential. Once spring practices start it’s going to be interesting to see how the team looks and how the quarterback situation plays out.
"My heroes, my dreams, and my future lay in Yankee Stadium. And they can’t take that away from me."—Derek Jeter
11:30 ET today
We find out the answer.
Recruiting someone like Neal would fall under the category of a positive rebuilding!
If it ain't 2,000 words long, I ain't posting it.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 21, 2012 8:21 AM EST up reply actions

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