Notre Dame Football 2012 Recruiting Class Overview
by Jim Miesle on Feb 2, 2012 7:00 AM EST
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PrintWith another national signing day in the books, Coach Brian Kelly and his staff finished with another solid class for 2012. While this class may not have the embarrassment of riches along the defensive line that the previous class had, it does address many key needs for the Fighting Irish moving forward. This year's class currently stands at 16 with the potential to add one more name after signing day.
While many Irish fans are a bit disappointed with the way this class finished, I will say one thing about that-don't be. Top to bottom, this class is extremely talented. I realize that the staff "missed" on a few big name recruits and had some once-committed players flip to another school. It happens both ways and is part of the whole process.
As we recently saw with Amir Carlisle transferring to Notre Dame after signing with USC last February, it may not be the end of the road.
This class features three early-entries in QB Gunner Kiel, CB Tee Shepard and DT Sheldon Day.
Recruiting Class Rankings:
ESPN: 10th (has been updated post-Greenberry)
Scout: 19th (no team above them in the rankings has fewer than 19 recruits)
Rivals: 22st (USC is the only team ranked higher with fewer recruits)
247Sports: 16th (USC is the only team ranked higher with fewer recruits)
Grades and more after the jump.
Now on to the class. This year, we are unveiling a super scientific grading system for the Notre Dame recruiting class. Our judging panel includes Whiskey, Eric, Burger and myself.
Official OFD Recruit Grading Scale:
95-100: Elite impact freshman with All-American potential
90-94: Multi-year starter with All-conference potential
85-89: Eventual starter with chance to play as underclassman
80-84: Raw prospect with decent potential but a couple years away from impact
75-79: Likely a backup
70-74: Reach by the coaching staff
Note: All Height/Weight/40 times as listed on 247Sports.com
QB
Gunner Kiel (Columbus, IN - Columbus East) - 6'4"/210/4.65: 95
RB
William Mahone (Youngstown, OH - Fitch) --5'11"/205/4.65: 83
KeiVarae Russell (Everett, WA - Mariner) -- 6'0"/175/4.55: 88
WR
Justin Ferguson (Hollywood, FL - Flanagan) -- 6'1"/205/4.62: 86
Chris Brown (Charleston, SC - Hanahan) -- 6'2"/170/4.44: 84
OL
Ronnie Stanley (Las Vegas, NV - Bishop Gorman) - 6'6"/285/5.00: 89
Mark Harrell (Charlotte, NC - Charlotte Catholic) -- 6'5"/270: 81
LS
Scott Daly (Downers Grove, IL - Downers Grove South) -- 6'4"/230: 80
DL
Sheldon Day (Indianapolis, IN - Warren Central) -- 6'2"/286/5.36: 91
Jarron Jones (Rochester, NY - Aquinas Institute) - 6'6"/300/5.20: 92
LB
Romeo Okwara (Charlotte, NC - Ardrey Kell) -- 6'4"/230/4.70: 86
DB
Tee Shepard (Fresno, CA - Washington Union) -- 6'0"/170/4.60: 95
Elijah Shumate (Ramsey, NJ - Don Bosco) -- 6'1"/185/4.50: 89
C.J. Prosise (Woodberry Forest, VA - Woodberry Forest) -- 6'2"/190: 84
John Turner (Indianapolis, IN - Cathedral) -- 6'2"/205/4.50: 78
Nicky Baratti (Spring, TX - Klein Oak) -- 6'2"/215/4.46: 83
Overall Comments:
While the overall number of recruits in this class is far below what many expected the staff to sign, it is important to remember that this is an extremely talented (albeit small) class that will address several needs. Notre Dame was able to add an elite QB, two WRs (to help offset the loss of Michael Floyd), and several DBs.
Many will want to focus on the negative aspects surrounding the 2012 recruiting class, and honestly it is hard to blame them. In my book, there were three big things that the staff came up a bit short on: numbers at WR (and losing Deontay Greenberry to Houston at the last minute certainly doesn't help), true cornerbacks (Shepard is the only true CB in the class full of safeties) and offensive tackles.
The margin for error for this class is pretty thin, meaning that several of these players need to make an impact in 2012 and 2013. This class will likely be remembered for the talent lost leading up to NSD (Decker, Darby and Greenberry), but that might not ultimately define the class. There are some very special players in this group and all are very capable players in their own right.
Finally, I will leave you with a glimmer of hope after the disappointment of February 1, 2012. There are two players that I think are sleepers and I think will be huge for the program over the next few years. I have one on offense and one on defense.
Defensive Sleeper of 2012: C.J. Prosise
I will go a bit more into my opinion on Prosise when I break down the DBs, but I think this kid will be special playing free safety in Bob Diaco's defense. I can see him playing special teams in the fall and potentially work his way into the two deep sooner than expected.
He is deceptively fast (thanks to the long strides) and is a ball hawk. I am not sure how he will do against the run and will need to hit the weights hard this spring and summer, but I have big expectations for this young man. Did I mention that he returned kicks and punts in high school? To be honest, he reminds me a bit of David Bruton.
Offensive Sleeper of 2012: Chris Brown
I know what you are thinking-I watched Brian Kelly's presser and was taken by his glowing comments about Brown. Truth is, I didn't watch it (yet) and actually was promoting Brown to the OFD team for a little while now (I think they will corroborate my story).
In short, I think this kid will be something special. His film shows great ball skills, elusiveness and a great burst in the open field. He will probably need to bulk up a bit up to around 200 lbs, but could possibly contribute from the moment he sets foot on campus.
The lower rating likely has to do with location and competition level. If he played in CA, TX or FL he would definitely be a high 4 star guy and on a lot of team's wish lists. As MouthoftheSouth put it-- "you know who else was 6'1"-ish, 180 lbs., and ran a 4.4-ish 40 coming out of high school? This guy. I'll take it."
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This class, for being small, is pretty darn solid.
There are deinitly going to be some kids that can contribute right away. I agree about Brown, this kid is athletic and fast, holds a few track records…..he has a chance to be something special.
I believe his triple jump was the best in the nation last year
And his all-time best is either right at or better than the ND school record. BTW—he does plan on running track at ND.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
Okay, I'll preface this by saying that I know nothing about track, and even less about the triple jump.
In fact, all I know about track and the triple jump is what I learned in P.E.—basically that the triple jump consists of three jumps. Staggering, my knowledge of track and field, no?
So here’s the question—not to impugn the good Mr. Brown’s achievements in the field of jumping thricely, but is that just an event for people that aren’t good enough at the long and high jumps? It just seems so gimmicky. Why jump three times? And why the odd switching of the jumping feet? I’ll take my answer off the air.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
I'm still in a weird mood
But for being a small class——we really did get some great players.
My feelings right now can be summed up best by one of the best Canadian bands of all-time:
“I should laugh, but I cry. Because your love, has passed me by. You took me by surprise, you didn’t realize. That I was waiting.”
Is that creepy enough for you?
Good.
I’ll just add some more things to the discussion:
1) As you said, the margin for error in this class got a lot smaller. Take out a long snapper and we only pulled in 15 players. Most of the positions will be fine, but wide receiver really got a ton of pressure put on it now. And it’s not just on Fergy and C-Brown. Those two freshman MIGHT have been able to redshirt, maybe play a little bit and take their time with the Fresno kid on board. Now, they’ll likely be forced to play much sooner. Maybe that’s not a bad thing, maybe they are ready, but it won’t be easy. Now someone like DaVaris Daniels—-who could have shared the spotlight and attention with the Fresno kid—-is going to have to really step up big in 2012.
2) The ante just got upped for the 2012 season, and frankly, we’re not in a good position to really tear it up next year. Already people are complaining that expectations are being lowered. Already people are demanding 10 wins or fire Kelly. However you want to look at it, the pressure is on next year to be able to sell kids that something special is being built at Notre Dame. I don’t think it’s the end of the world if ND only wins 8 games again next year (and I think it’s still crazy to fire Kelly after 3-straight 8-win seasons), but the staff might have to come to the realization that they’ll have to take 6, 8, maybe 10 3-star guys in next year’s class, just to make sure the numbers are there. The 2013 should be very large, so go get close to 25 if you can—-not 18 or 19.
3) I don’t like how some people are trying to cast it in stone that Kelly has “proved” he’s not an elite recruiter, or that he’s not recruiting well enough. Most of all, I don’t like that people are already holding this class against him. Sure he deserves some strong criticism with how this class finished, but we don’t know they will pan out. Typically you’re lucky to get 60 or 70% of a large class to contribute. Well, I think there’s a good chance about 12 of these players turn out to be great players.
And even still, the talent over the past two cycle has been amazing. We’ll moan about the numbers in 2012, and losing the Fresno kid and Darby, but the talent ceiling has been lifted by Kelly—-and that is something that is very important to remember.
Sky rockets in flight.
So that is what we are calling him now...
the “Fresno kid”, eh? Strange turn of events. He obviously wansn’t 100% comfortable with ND and went somewhere he was. I can do nothing by wish him the best. It sucks I realize, but to call him names or say negative things is completely counter-productive.
The staff swung for the fences with this class and missed on some very high profile players. I admire that they went big, and like the change in mindset from previous staffs. They aren’t going to settle for whoever wants to come and not put in the work.
Bottom line—would everyone feel better if they filled the class with 3-4 “project” guys? Numbers would look better, but now they are in a better position for numbers in the 2013 class and contacted 15+ top targets yesterday already.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
I definitely do not wish him the best...
maybe that makes me a lesser man, but I hope his college career goes nowhere. I will call him no names and hope that he stays healthy, but I do not wish him success. And I seldom feel that way about these kids.
That is fair...
but something still just doesn’t seem right to me about this whole situation. Perhaps we haven’t heard the last from DGb. This could ultimately end up like a Chris Martin situation where he bounces around to a couple of schools—who knows.
At least is wasn’t like Jordan Payton, who started as a verbal to USC, then to Cal, then Washington last week only to sign with UCLA. Times, they are a changin’
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
Totally agree.
Something about this just isn’t right. He may very well be one of these kids that bounces around through a couple of programs. It will be interesting to keep an eye on him the next couple of years.
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
by whiskey OFD on Feb 2, 2012 11:59 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'll feel better if we get a big class next year with a number of top guys
It’s hard to look at a class in a vacuum before any of them have seen the field and without knowing who we’ll get next year. Losing the Fresno kid won’t be as bad if we pull in one or two big time receivers next year, for example.
One Foot Down
On teh Twitterz
I would feel a lot better with 3-4 project guys.
We need depth. And those 3-star-ish project guys—especially if they’re O-linemen—can really turn out to be great players.
Bama brings in like 40 players every year, then throws away the non-contributors like trash. ND would never and should never do things this way, but if we want to compete with the big boys, we need to fill up our roster with studs every year, not with 5th-year seniors who have not contributed ON THE FIELD in any meaningful way—this is not to disparage their contributions off the field.
So, yeah, I would feel much better with some projects. It would give us more margin for error.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
There seems to be very little chance that there will be room for 25 next year...
but I do think that they are in strong position for next year’s class to fill up those “missed” scholarships this year. They will have a different plan as a result of getting boned by Greenberry and Darby as well as the extenuating circumstances surrounded Wright and Standifer. They are already tearing up the Midwest, and I’m optimistic that their results in the region will be strong next year. A good 20 in next year’s class will be awesome.
But anyone overreacting over this one class is being silly. It’s not a bad class. It does leave a little less margin for error but the numbers and depth were very good last year. And instead of taking a handful of lower tiered guys this year, they use those scholarships towards more instant impact players next year, it doesn’t impact depth whatsoever.
You can cherry pick a single recruiting class for just about any program out there that wasn’t great. Luckily, you have four recruiting classes on the team at a time. They’ll be fine. I’m not going to get hung up on the recruiting class too much, we need to see the product on the field this year and the rest will work out in future classes.
I don't think this staff will ever sign 25 in a class...
though they came close last year. ND doesn’t get the “turnover” of alot of the other schools. I think a realistic annual target is ~20 per class, depending on the number of 5th years being brought back.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
I agree with this
Think about it – what if, say, Stanley, Ferguson, Russell, and Shepard all turn out to be All-American type players? We’ll be looking back at this class and saying, “Wow, we pulled in all those guys in this class?”
One Foot Down
On teh Twitterz
Next year's numbers- Quick swag.
17 Freshmen
25 Sophs
19 Juniors
8 Seniors eligible for a 5th
69 Total
16 Total spots available for new recruits if we exercise all 8 5th year options
8 Additional spots as a 1 for 1 for 5th year players
24 Absolute max number of schollies available
That obviously doesn’t account for any other attrition
Most likely end up with a class of approx 20 a year from now
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
It's all part of the plan...
the staff doesn’t want a tiny class next year, and it really would have been if all the scholarships had been used up. The roster is very frosh/soph heavy. If all the spots were going to be used this year, they were going to guys the staff had very highly rated at positions they placed a premium on. If not, then look towards 2013. Sucks to miss on a few of them and get screwed by a couple guys, but a good class next year makes up for it.
Although the sky is falling, they can’t recruit, will be lucky to win 7 games, everyone is in over their heads, so the class is going to suck next year. I think I have that right.
I think your 1st paragraph is right on.
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
by whiskey OFD on Feb 2, 2012 12:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think I can count at least 10 guys that will start or be a significant contributor to ND over the course of the next four years
(in no particular order)
Stanley
Jones
Day
Brown
Ferguson
Daly
Mahone
Russell
Shepard
At least one of the safeties
I’m not counting on Okwara – who could grow into a very good player – or Kiel – who’s future is probably the most uncertain of anyone’s.
I’m not saying they’ll all be stars, but if they turn into solid players, then this class probably won’t be looked at as a failure in four years. But they better pan out, because we can’t afford to have many misses.
One Foot Down
On teh Twitterz
This doesn't prove Kelly can't recruit
just like year 1 doesn’t prove he’s an elite recruiter either. The real question (and one I feel good about the answer to) is “Is Kelly smart enough to recognize that he needs lots of bodies next year?” The mistake Ty made after his small class was following it up with another small class. One small class is coverable, especially with the amount of young talent on the roster now, but this becomes a real problem if we don’t find bodies for next year. I predict a deep but 3* heavy class for next year as BK realizes he doesn’t have the margin for error he did in this one. It’s an unsatisfying answer because we’d love to be able to fight for the top talent every year and only worry about a few 3*s each time, but I think it’s the path this is going to take.
The “right” way for this class to fall was still on the small side, but closer to 18-19 prospects, with 1-2 more elite guys. We could still go get Davonte Neal and we’d be much closer and cover a big need. That would create way more margin for error next year and allow us to play this whole “wait on the 4*s and 5*s” game again.
He obviously knows the numbers he is dealing with...
but the strategy is different for next year. The staff was willing to drop kids this time around in favor of the potential for next year’s class. They will be less willing to drop an Ekanem or McNamara (although I really think he just sucks) or Darboh.
I will say again like I’ve said before, they have always been in better position for class of 2013 than 2012. That is partly a function of the Midwest being much stronger next year and just a function of some of the prospects having greater interest in ND early in the game. They may have offered 160+ kids last year, but they were out for a vast majority of them almost right away. I don’t think that will be as much the case next year.
"losing the "Fresno kid?"
some people take this stuff way too seriously
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Feb 2, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
Well he is from Fresno
Which is a hellhole, by the way
Even the Pope hates the Trojans
because he flips his name is not to be mentioned?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Feb 4, 2012 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
Forget the one that got away
what about the one still out there swimming? How does OFD grade Devonte Neal (so I can compare to the guys currently signed)?
I can't speak for everyone else
But I’d imagine his overall grade would be in the 92-94 area.
That would make him a top 3 guy for our entire class.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 2, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
I put him in the same neighborhood
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
And Greenberry?
Similarly? Possibly higher since it seems people were expecting to come in and contribute immediately?
I believe the average for Greenberry came out to 96 for us
He was the top recruit for us overall, although I think a couple of us had him #2 with Kiel in front.
Does that sound right, Jim?
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Feb 2, 2012 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
We had DGb at 95...
with 3 out of 4 having him at the top of the class. He was basically right with Gunner and Tee at the top of the class in our opinion.
It was a big loss, but its time to move on and focus on the guys on the roster.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
Completely agree
on focusing on guys who are on the roster. Just curious to see how my understanding of him matched your thinking.
We will work on that for you...
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
What the hell guys?
I travel for the day and all hell breaks loose… who’s responsible for this? Who didn’t hold it down!?? I want answers!!!
Good to see Neal is more in the fold with Ohio State out. Really hope we get him now. But Russell will end up being a slot receiver I’m pretty sure so 3 receivers isn’t a bad class (since we have Carlisle and Mahone now) especially with all their upside.
This recruiting season has been odd to say the least.
On Deontay Greenberry and Jordan Payton especially – huh?
I’ll be really interested to see what comes of Payton’s recruiting documentary (dare I say mockumentary?) – committing to 4 schools? Really? Very interested to see the thought process (Read: ADHD… ooh a squirrel!) behind that one.
Greenberry is just a sad case and it’s hard to not shake your head about it for several reasons
1. Being committed to a school for 10 months, you not once thought ‘maybe this isn’t the right choice for me’ until the weekend before Signing Day?
2. Leaving your cousin at the altar (ewww!!) when the two of you could have played somewhere together besides ND if you had reservations, or at least looked into it if you were honest with him and realized that sooner (don’t pelt me for that one).
3. Really cowardly to not call Kelly and the staff to inform them of your decision and instead have Kelly find out through your head coach. This part actually does piss me off – can you imagine quitting your job by just not showing up anymore? Just have a friend call and tell them you’re probably not coming anymore… I know my dad would have kicked my ass…
4. Houston? Really? Can anyone tell me it was for something other than social reasons and maybe following the assistant coach? If so, that is concerning. And why not pick a school like Miami, USC, Florida State where you’ll have elite coaching, development, the national spotlight, AND the social life. I don’t know if this is going to end well looking back on it in a few years.
I personally think when he took that visit last weekend the coaches got in his ear emphasizing the ‘best decision for him’ and not blindly following his cousin.
Not really that mad about the Darby situation – some rumors that there was at least some blame on the coaching staff and he notified them himself, gave them ample time to up their recruiting of other prospects. I can respect that and wish him well.
Overall disappointing but only because recruiting was spread out so far and the class is relatively small – but it almost had to be around 18 at most so we could have enough scollies for next year – around 20 would be my guess.
I hate playing the game of "these guys will contribute" and "these guys are long shots"
because all recruits have somewhere between a 30% and 80% chance of success in college. Our class probably skews higher because it is fairly flush with quality over quantity, but as we’ve learned in the past 10 years, having able bodies means something, and we all know 1/2 of the highly touted prospects across the country will never live up to expectations. Now it’s the staff’s job to make sure that we beat that rate.
I could go forever on it, but the biggest problem I have with yesterday is the same one I have with the coaching staff in general: missed opportunities and lost momentum. The last 15 years have been nothing short of a disaster. There have been ample opportunities for this staff to pick up momentum and get a big boulder rolling down hill. A win over Michigan in one of the most watched early season CFB games of the year: squandered by bad CB play and a serious lack of scoring in the 2H (It’s easy to forget how bad our O was in the 2nd half, but look at the box score on it). The fact that our offense’s theme song was the Benny Hill soundtrack, not the Victory March. Coming off a strong finish to 2010, we start 0-2 with 10 turnovers. Even wins over JUST South Florida and FSU would have made this season look passable and we could have gone into the off season on a high note, with some momentum for next year. Or not coming out flat in the biggest game of the year against USC and (gasp) a winning streak against them. Instead, here we are, worrying about how BK’s going to slide RBs around to fill WR holes. The wasted momentum from every step of the way in this program is killer because the margin for error is so small. Now we head into a year with the toughest schedule of BK’s tenure (and probably the 2 tenures before that), already in a near-stall with the recruiting mess of yesterday (Greenberry’s defection was one of the top storylines of the day, with us as the punchline). More stalled momentum will be dangerous to a recruiting class that NEEDS talent (and bodies). If we stall out this year, we’ll be waiting 3 more years a repeat of 3-9.
Not to nitpick
But sliding RBs to WR is common in all spread offenses. The skillset for RBs and slot receivers are very similar (moving in space, escapability, etc.). Kelly recruits guys with the skills he wants and sorts them by position later.
I also don’t think we need to worry about a repeat of 2007. The coaching is solid and there’s no obvious holes in recruiting that I can see. You can argue about the quality of our depth at WR or LB, but there’s no bubbles like there were in 2006/2007.
One Foot Down
On teh Twitterz
I guess I buy your point on sliding RBs to WRs
It seems counterintuitive to me a little bit, and the most recent guy we’ve done it with, Theo, has really underwhelmed. Hopefully the next set of transitions goes better.
Also, we have lots of O-Line depth right now but only got 2 guys there this cycle. I’m sure they’ll be switching guys around because we have some depth on the DL, and as I said above, I’d be suprised if BK didn’t lower his sights in order to get numbers next cycle, but it’s not ideal. Additionally, I’m a little concerned about who’s going to be playing MLB after our superstar graduates.
Like I tried to say (and maybe didn’t do it well enough), I’m really not that concerned about the depth of this class independently, I just worry about what happens if we struggle next year with the difficult schedule. 7-5 is possible with only “bad” loss, and it’d be more lost momentum.
I've been saying that we're going to be weak at Mike in a few years.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
What about Werewolf?!
by my name is inigo montoya on Feb 2, 2012 4:17 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
He's one man.
Or rather, half man, half wolf. So we’ve got him and Kendall Moore. That’s a lot of talent and athleticism, but we didn’t take a Mike this year, and in a 3-4, there are 2 Mikes on the field unless you’re in nickel, dime, or some other 4-man front.
—Captain Obvious
Also, Mike is the defense’s quarterback. You need to bring a Mike along, physically and mentally. Manti Te’o only comes along once in 5-10 years. So I want to get those Mikes in the system early on, not throw them out there as first or second year players.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
I feel like I am talking a lot of people off the ledge today...
I think we all share your frustration, and in many ways it is warranted. I think this recruiting cycle was an eye-opener for the staff, and I believe that they will learn a lot from what went right (e.g. Kiel) and what went wrong (e.g. Darby, Greenberry).
There were rumblings early on when it appeared that this class stalled a bit over the summer. The staff chose to focus on big names that could give instant impact. Maybe they missed on a lot of guys b/c the top targets strung them along for too long. The staff said the team was a BCS contender, and then the team didn’t deliver
If things played out differently (Ekanem not getting hurt, Standifer gaining admission, no Yuri-gate), I think most would be happy with this class. Obviously only time will tell how this class pans out, but I am not worried about a repeat of 2007. To me, 8 wins is starting to look like the floor for the program and not the ceiling…just need more consistent QB play.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
"Nothing short of a disaster"
Losing football games and recruits is way short of a disaster. Huge pet peeve, not just semantically but because it’s representative of how much people need to chill out about every little thing. Doubt anyone cares but good lord it pisses me off.
Also, you are fairly hyperbolic in general.
I agree completely about the whole momentum idea....
I’m pretty adamant that ND must stop scheduling anything less than crappy teams for the first three games. The rest of the country schedules true cupcakes to start the season to act as a quasi-preseason. Im tired of playing mich and mich st in two of our first 3 games and playing USFs, Navys, SDSUs or Nevadas for that third game…..y can’t we get San Jose St, Akron, Duke, New Mexico? It’s ridiculous….we rarely ever have momentum.
Damn, Zibby.
This one hurt. Mainly because I can’t really disagree with it. This program has missed opportunities and lost momentum. But they’ve also done a lot of good things. Keep up the faith.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
I don't really understand why people are so up in arms over this class
There seems to be this prevailing sentiment that WE NEED TALENT NOW. Really? I think we have plenty of talent on hand right now. The only positions where I think we really needed a big time guy were receiver and safety. Granted, we kind of missed at both positions, but we brought in some pretty good prospects. It’s not like we’re suddenly Akron now. We bring back a lot of key contributors from a very good defense and I think that there were enough positive signs on offense that I think we can be very good if we find a QB (and bringing in Gunner certianly doesn’t hurt in that regard).
One Foot Down
On teh Twitterz
"The only positions where I think we really needed a big time guy were receiver and saftey. Granted we kind of missed at both positions"
Thats a problem.
And you ignored my next point
“…but we brought in some pretty good prospects”
It’s not like we whiffed completely. The guys we have and are bringing in are pretty good.
One Foot Down
On teh Twitterz
Ok, that's fair
I guess that statement just seemed to stand out. Most of the people who scream we need talent now are probably the same people that believe “we need talent every year”. It’s not the worst stance to take, looking at the results of Alabama, Texas, USC, etc, but it’s hardly a global truth.
I think people are forgetting our biggest need this year
was at Quarterback.
And people tend to lose sight of the fact that Freshmen aren’t expected to contribute right away. We got some high quality prospects that will need 1-2 years to develop. And an elite CB who can contribute right away if necessary.
Biggest need at QB?
Looks like someone is sleeping on EG…
Irishane--The NAFAASEG--The National Association For Awareness Against Sleeping On EG
names you its Public Enemy Number One.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
Im not worried about the defense so much...
I think the D will work out just fine. It make have some struggles, but it will still be on par with this years D, even without 3/4 of the D backfield.
However, putting up points really concerns me. What was the problem for the most this year- essentially offense. Now I look to next season and I dont see much of a way the O can improve. We improved the QB situation with Gunner, but we complicated it just as much, and we saw what complications can do last year. Add to that the loss of MF3. The only thing you can do to fix that is bring in some solid wide receivers to take his place, and we didnt. So next year, the WR are:
-TJ Jones – Potential? Yes. Done some nice things? Yes. Do i think hes an answer? Nope.
- Toma – Great kid. Love him. Love the player he is, but hes not about to put up 700 yards for us.
-Riddick – Dont even know what position he is. To add to that, he didnt do much at the WR anyways
- Daniels – Got potential, but never played a down. This concerns me.
-Smith – Hes a Junior now, and he has made 0 impact on the offense thus far. I dont see a great chance of a sudden break out.
-Farley – Huge project.
- Goodman – Weve seen for the last 4 years what he is.
- Ferguson/Brown – Raw, and im not sure they are ready to make an impact right away.
The CB:
- Wood – Undersized, not that quick. Hes decent, but not a stud.
- Jackson – Raw. I think hell be solid, but i dont have proof to back it up.
- Brown – Complimented my MF3, but he was on scout team for a reason.
-Atkinson – Unproven
-Hardy – May play S, but either way, coming off an injury, Cant expect to much.
-Tee – Just a frosh.
All this shows is my concerns. I think holes exist, and that we did need talent NOW, just mostly at the WR. I think atleast with the CB position (which we flopped on, but basically because of a series of bad events with Darby, Wright and Standifer. I dont blame the coaching staff for this) we can put together some quality reps and get the job done. However, I really cant say the same about the WR , and i really think the coaching staff flopped here. We needed talent, and we didnt get it. I dont think the offense is going to fail and not put up any points, I just think its going to be a struggle now. In that way, we needed talent now.
Because Greenberry was totally the coaching staff's fault?
And what about Carlisle and Russell, who are almost sure to be the hybrid slot/RB position that Kelly would love to employ? It’s not that dire. Lacks a true outside the numbers guy for sure but it can be overcome with some creativity and better QB play.
A few issues:
Smith redshirted freshmen year, then was hurt most of last year. He’ll be a junior, so it’s not like he’s gone three years without doing anything.
Brown was on the scout team for a reason—he was a true freshmen. Lots of guys burst onto the scene as redshirt freshmen.
Let’s wait and see before we write these two off—not that you’re writing them off, I’m just sayin.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
ACTUALLY
you may be right. Whoops. My bad.
My point stands, though. Not playing wide receiver but getting ST reps as a freshman is perfectly normal, and his lack of contribution last year was understandable in light of his hammy situation.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
And another thing!
You don’t replace Floyd. This is the essence of Moneyball. You don’t replace what you are losing, you don’t match positions on other teams or match stats or anything. You maximize wins. There is no point in trying to find one person to replace Floyd; you can’t do it and it’s destructive for the future of your offense. You maximize wins. With a better QB, with more useful utilization of the slot/RB position, with an altered scheme that better fits personnel (as I believe Martin’s does), and with just some natural progression of these young athletes, I have absolutely no doubts that they can improve offensive output next year against some of the better teams on their schedule.
Also, regarding Jones, he lost his father in June and had Tommy Rees ignoring his side of the field for most of last season. He will be much more productive in his third season.
Solid points.
Though I question your decision to speak of “base-ball” in a college football forum. I suspect that it belies a character defect, but your comment is well taken, sir.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
Im not trying to create a new Floyd
but the production does need to be replaced, and that is exactly my point. I dont think all of those guys COMBINED will do enough to bring back what MF3 did. When the offense was in trouble, we looked to MF3. Can you really trust any of those guys above when the going is tough? Bc i sure as hell done.
You want to maximize wins, and Im saying its going to be difficult with the WR corp we have. I absolutely blame the staff for not bringing in a quality wide receiver. They honestly had a pretty easy pitch for WR on the outside. I remember people saying all Urban Meyer said to Devante Neal is “You can be the next Percy Harvin.” Well all BK has to say to a stud outside is “You can be the next Mike Floyd.” He failed to utilize that and bring in the stud WR that I think we need.
Carlisle wont be able to play until 2013. Russell played as a RB in a wing-t offense (from the highlights i remember watching). So i dont trust either of those guys coming in and producing next year.
You say better QB play. Right now we have no proof well get better qb play. We said wed get better qb play this year, and we didnt. Just saying.
I feel bad for Jones, I really do. I have no idea what its like to lose a father, and I dont want to find out. I think he seems like a good guy. But I dont think losing his father has anything to do with him dropping balls vs stanford. Its nothing personal. I think hes a good player and kid, just underperformed thus far.
That said. All this makes me seem like “OMG WERE GONNA GO 3-9”—-No, I dont think that. I think 9-3 is very possible. It should be not a problem to have another 8-5 year. However, nobody wants another 8-5 season. Im saying were going to have a struggle to get better next year with the WR.
Yea I'm sure he didn't tell anyone they could be the next Michael Floyd
including the guy that skipped out on him the morning of signing day. Lack of experience would’ve been a concern whether or not Greenberry or Agholor or any other freshman would’ve joined so “I’m freaking out about the inexperienced WR corps” is not commensurate with “I blame the staff for not bringing in a freshman to play WR”.
It’s also something every team in the country has to do when their best players graduate. I really don’t think it’s that extreme of a situation. Great player graduates, quality guys behind him get ready to step up. Including the TEs which has yet to be mentioned.
I’m much more worried about QB play. If the QB is improved as a run threat and in arm strength/ability to throw all routes, then there is certainly enough quality at the skill positions to make it happen.
I see it like this.
A good QB with average receivers can win a lot more games than an average QB with good receivers. Andrew Luck can win Stanford more games than Michael Floyd can win us simply because the ball is in the QB’s hand literally every non-special teams or wildcat play. Getting Golson or Hendrix or Kiel to develop is vastly more important.
by my name is inigo montoya on Feb 2, 2012 10:02 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
But we dont have Andrew Luck
But id agree with the rest of that comment. Our season really rests on the QB development
/Team Golson
Speaking of tight ends
I’m wondering (actually sort of hoping) we see more multiple TE sets next season. I think that would give us a lot of flexibility and would shift the pressure from our green WR corps to our more seasoned TEs.
Even the Pope hates the Trojans
That was supposed to happen this year.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, we could say that about a lot of things...
Even the Pope hates the Trojans
It went out the door with the Ragone injury...
and Welch missing time with a foot injury. Koyack was put out there before he was ready, but is poised for a huge 2012. I don’t expect anything from Jake Golic, so it will basically be Eifert-Koyack-Welch.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
I’m hopeful that the seemingly tepid play of our receiving corps
has been made to look that way by the propensity of our passing plays to go to Floyd and Eifert (or, for the first half of 2010, Rudolph). In almost 70% of the games played in Kelly’s two seasons at ND (18/26), Floyd and Eifert (or Rudolph, in the games he played) snagged 50% or more of the receptions in a game. In fact, in 8 of 26 games (31%), more than 60% of receptions went to Floyd and Eifert or Rudolph. That’s significant.
It looks like the ball’s being distributed well when you just list receptions: in the last 2 seasons, never have fewer than 5 guys received the ball in a game (there were 5 receivers in 5 games), and in 20 of the 26, six or seven receivers caught the ball (8 did in 1 game).
However, in no games in the past two years have more than 2 guys other than Floyd and Eifert or Rudolph caught the ball more than twice in a game (I’m excluding RBs catching laterals here).
In fact, in 12 of 26 games, outside of Floyd and Eifert or Rudolph, just one guy had more than 2 receptions; in another 5 games, nobody besides them caught the ball more than twice.
There were 6 games in 2010 when guys other than Floyd and Eifert or Rudolph made a significant number of receptions: Riddick had 7-10 receptions against each of MSU, Stanford, BC, and Pitt before getting hurt; Kamara and Jones took 6 and 5 against Navy when Floyd was injured; then Toma had 4 against Army. In 2011, Jones had 6 against USF and 5 against Purdue, and also 3 against Wake and 5 against BC when receptions were scarce; Riddick had 6 against UM and Pitt, and 8 against AFA; Toma had 7 against MD, 5 against BC, and 4 against FSU.
What all this suggests to me is that beyond the two playmakers—the super-stud Floyd and the stud TE—our receivers really haven’t had the opportunity to do much. Most of them only once in a blue moon had the ball thrown at them more than 2 or 4 times a game. Now, maybe the ball is being thrown around much more than the reception numbers suggest, and the other guys just aren’t making catches (sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t), but with Floyd’s and Eifert’s (and Rudolph’s) drops factored in, I don’t think the reception data actually skews it that much.
It seems like the limited performance from our receivers could hinge more on the QB’s and the coach’s decisions of who to send the ball to than on a genuine lack of depth or adequate talent at receiver. What QB (especially one with Rees’s particular set of skills) or coach would make an effort to get the ball to Floyd and a stud TE less frequently? Without Floyd, necessity will, I think, give our receivers the experience and opportunity they need to make plays and use their skill.
#figureitoutbobby
by fishoutofwater on Feb 2, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Great analysis.
This would make a great FanPost.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks, guys.
I’m on it.
#figureitoutbobby
by fishoutofwater on Feb 3, 2012 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
Makes you wish you could see the coaches' tape.
So you could see if the other receivers aren’t getting open, or if they merely aren’t getting targeted.
I think one thing we were missing is a big name win.
Last year we had USC and arguably Miami to point to and say that we can hang with the big boys like we used to. Michigan State is the game many would argue was a big upset, but for some strange reason everyone (including the media) glossed over that game completely. All I want next year is for us to win the games we are supposed to win, and then throw on one more that we aren’t supposed to win. Those are the types of things that really help recruiting.
by my name is inigo montoya on Feb 2, 2012 12:24 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Yep, Beat USC or Oklahoma
We were favored in every game but Stanford and USC last year, including by more than a TD against MSU. The same will likely be true again this year for all games but Oklahoma or USC. Those games will be HUGE for the future of the program.
People seem to forget...
Just how highly-rated the ‘06, ’07 and ’08 classes were. And how did their senior seasons go? 6-6, 8-5, 8-5. Remember James Aldridge? 5* RB, hardly played, finished his career at FB. How about Sam Young? 5 star OT, sure he started every game of his career but he was never actually any good. I still have nightmares of him and Paul Duncan flailing in pass protection at the end of games in ’09. How about Deion Walker? WR recruit in the same class as Floyd, and he wasn’t rated that much lower than Floyd. Caught one pass his entire career, at the end of a blowout against Nevada.
It’s not simply about recruiting the biggest names and the most stars, it’s about developing them once they get on campus. It sucks that Notre Dame lost out on three good prospects in the past month, but those guys could just as easily flame out in college. Remember Lorenzo Booker? Burned Notre Dame for Florida State, and wasn’t half as good as they said he was. Notre Dame ended up with Darius Walker instead, and he did just fine. Chris Martin, oh man what a big loss he was. You’ll probably see him on the back of a milk carton before you see him on a football field.
And also, please no personal attacks on Deontay Greenberry. It’s his life, not yours. Gunner Kiel left LSU at the altar on the very day he was supposed to report to LSU, so we can’t exactly throw stones.
If you watch the Darby interview
He makes it sound like ND gave up on him. I’m sure I don’t know 10% of what recruiting is about, but that was interesting. Maybe the track issue?
Also, any word if we offered 4 year scholarships?
In my book, ND has always offered 4 yr schollies...
even guys lost to medical reasons were kept on scholarship (not counting against the 85 total) so that they could graduate. Players have transferred or weren’t eligible due to grades (Julius Jones comes to mind), but have been given a chance to come back if they want.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
ND "giving up" isn't consistent with other information I've seen.
There are a lot of lines to be read between. Mike Frank and Bryan Driskell have both hinted at some sort of a problem on the ND end with his recruitment when they’ve talked about it in the Power Hours, although it doesn’t look like ND didn’t put in effort—-which leaves me to think that there was some kind of disconnect between him and the staff rather than the staff not keeping after him.
They also hinted that someone in Darby’s inner circle was anti-ND. I could certainly imagine someone like that in his ear leading to a perception of the Irish that might diverge from reality.
The Crazy Uncle, in all probability.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 3, 2012 11:39 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
The one thing that became a potential red flag for me w/r/t Greenberry
was someone on ISD mentioning the day before signing day that Greenberry was going to get rid of his facebook page on signing day.
This struck me as very odd. Why would you do that on signing day? And why announce it? I still was convinced with Tee at ND that he would sign with us but that definitely raised an eyebrow.
If you learn anything from this past year – don’t listen to what recruits say – watch what they do. And if they’re committed but visiting another school, the only reason is that they’re not really committed.
I dont respect that kid anymore
But im 18 years old, and I know that you dont lie to a coach for 9 months then pull a last minute switch. He lied until the very last minute, then didnt even have the stones to call BK himself, the coach had to do it. Life will go on though, not worth complaining forever.
I didn't have a problem with him changing his mind
but I do have a problem with the way he did it in not notifying the staff himself – maybe it’s just the way I expect people to act in such a situation where you’re committed (whether it’s a relationship, a job, this, or whatever).
The kid has a right to be happy and choose the school he wants to attend. I feel the same way about Kiel’s decision and hope he called Miles to let him know he wasn’t going to LSU.
I dont have a problem with him pulling a Darby
and giving us time to go after someone else like a standifer. If greenbury would have decommitted when darby did, we could have gotten Ralph Andereas…now we have nothing. It just want not classy.
That was the worst part of the whole saga
Followed closely by the fact that he signed with Houston. Freaking Houston. After they lost their coach and 9th year record-setting quarterback. Makes no sense.
Even the Pope hates the Trojans
I tend to agree with DMAC and Irishane.
Why should special rules apply to recruits? You don’t have your mom or girlfriend call in to a job and quit for you, and you damn sure don’t do it the night before your employer’s biggest day of the year. Being a recruit doesn’t give people license to act sh!tty.
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
Man, Les Miles was pretty pissed about losing Gunner
Not cool to call out a player like that.
May God have mercy on my enemies, because I won't
-Patton
by Three and Eight-Elevenths Men on Feb 2, 2012 10:44 PM EST reply actions
Who does he think he is, Charlie Weis?
But yeah, that’s the Mr. Magoo is the SEC for ya.
Even the Pope hates the Trojans
Why not? Les just has a bigger chest. It's a simple physiological fact. Maybe Irishane can confirm it.
On second thought, nevermind. I don’t think George Lopez is that funny, but I’ll quote him here:
by Mouth of the South on Feb 2, 2012 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
I'm glad someone brought this up
Earlier, I asked people not to make personal attacks against Greenberry. Then Les Miles goes and makes personal attacks against Gunner Kiel. In other words, I ask more of OFD commenters than LSU does of its head coach.
Les Miles is a real piece of work. Gunner Kiel is just fine and dandy while he’s committed to LSU, but as soon as he decommits he’s a bum who doesn’t have the guts to compete in the SEC. I expect this sort of reaction from fans, but it’s completely unbecoming of a head coach. You stay classy, Les.
I believe that Les Miles actually meant to say...
that Gunner didn’t have the kicking leg to lead his program.
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
by Jim Miesle on Feb 3, 2012 8:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Did you see Tee's interview...
on UND.com…….The nation will know who that kid is in two years. Seems to be a geat kid as well as a great athlete. R K G !
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