An Early Ranking of Notre Dame's 2012 Opponents
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 7:30 AM EST
Email
PrintThe 2011 season is officially over and we now turn our thoughts to the 2012 schedule facing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
We're just over 7 months away from starting this schedule---one that seems like it will be among the toughest in country.
Is there any hope for an improved record over the past two seasons with this fierce gauntlet facing Notre Dame?
Team-by-team rankings after the jump.
12. Navy Midshipmen
2011 Record: 5-7
Returning Starters: 13 (6 offense, 7 defense)
Stock Report: Even
2011 Record: 7-6
Returning Starters: 15 (8 offense, 7 defense)
Stock Report: Even
2011 Record: 4-8
Returning Starters: 20 (11 offense, 9 defense)
Stock Report: Slightly Up
2011 Record: 6-7
Returning Starters: 13 (8 offense, 5 defense)
Stock Report: Slightly Down
2011 Record: 6-7
Returning Starters: 13 (6 offense, 7 defense)
Stock Report: Even
2011 Record: 6-6
Returning Starters: 11 (4 offense, 7 defense)
Stock Report: Down
6. BYU Cougars
2011 Record: 10-3
Returning Starters: 16 (9 offense, 7 defense)
Stock Report: Slightly Up
2011 Record: 11-2
Returning Starters: 14 (6 offense, 8 defense)
Stock Report: Down
4. Michigan State Spartans
2011 Record: 11-3
Returning Starters: 13 (5 offense, 8 defense)
Stock Report: Down
2011 Record: 11-2
Returning Starters: 14 (6 offense, 8 defense)
Stock Report: Even
2011 Record: 10-3
Returning Starters: 15 (8 offense, 7 defense)
Stock Report: Slightly Up
1. Southern California Trojans
2011 Record: 10-2
Returning Starters: 16 (9 offense, 7 defense)
Stock Report: Up
COMMENTARY
- The Basement Teams are Average, But Not Your Average Basement Teams
Regardless of which teams you believe are the weakest on the schedule, the Irish are once again faced with playing decent competition at the bottom of the basement.
Navy, Purdue, Boston College, and Pitt all struggled in 2011 and look to be far from strong in 2012, but we're also talking about programs that can compete neck and neck with some of the best teams in the country.
Not that it needs to be repeated to many Notre Dame fans, but the Irish do not enjoy the advantage of playing one or two truly awful teams---teams so bad that the starters could be pulled at halftime.
Not every program plays a couple cream puffs, but refusing to do so for the Irish is a distinct competitive disadvantage that could be magnified in 2012 with possibly 6 ranked teams on the schedule and at least two truly elite programs at the top.
In fact, if you average out the winning percentage since 2009 for the bottom three teams in my rankings (Navy, Purdue, Boston College), it comes out to only 60th in the country---or exactly average.
In comparison, defending national champion Alabama will be able to play I-AA Western Carolina (a program that is 11-56 since 2006 by the way), plus two teams in Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic whose winning percentage over the past three seasons averages out to just over 106th in the country.
The shocking difference between Notre Dame's weak opponents and Alabama's (as well as 95% of college football on a yearly basis) is something that leaves the Irish with little margin for error, and little rest over a grueling college football season.
- Who's the 4th Best Team on the Schedule?
There's no doubt that this is a fairly top-heavy schedule. Say what you want about Michigan but they will likely join USC and Oklahoma in the preseason top 10 (the Wolverines are ranked 9th by Athlon, 18th by Nationalchamps.net, 11th by ESPN, and 9th by SBNation's Bill Connelly) to form a trio of powers that will be as difficult as any team in the country will face.
After that, there is likely a significant drop-off.
Is Michigan State the 4th best team?
The Spartans might be preseason top 20 (maybe even top 15), but they are losing QB Kirk Cousins, RB Edwin Baker, their top 4 receivers, and bringing back an offensive line that is far from dominant. Even with a very good defense, Michigan State might severely struggle on offense.
What about Stanford?
The Cardinal will obviously sorely miss Andrew Luck, while their offensive line loses two All-American type stars, and the receiving corps is dangerously thin and unproven. Stanford has nice pieces at tight end, running back, and the bulk of a good defense coming back, but will their offense be good enough to compete at a high level in 2012?
BYU could make a case, but despite another 10-win season (their 5th over the last 6 years) their resume leaves a ton to be desired with only one win over a winning team (8-5 Tulsa) in 2011. Then again, the Cougars are bringing back a lot of players, have a very underrated defense, and usually play teams very close.
- The Three Tiers
USC, Oklahoma, with Michigan just outside the Trojans and Sooners sphere of influence, make up the top tier of teams on the this schedule.
As previously discussed, Michigan State, Stanford, and BYU make up the second-tier with all three having a decent argument for the 4th best team on the Irish schedule. It shouldn't surprise anyone if all three of these teams start the 2012 season ranked.
The final six teams should probably be all lumped into one large third-tier---as all of them will likely hover around .500 and struggle to win anything more than 7 games.
Getting back to the "these are quality basement teams" theme, it's hard to imagine any of these programs being truly awful and losing double-digit games (heck, BC looked beyond terrible during 2011 and they still won 4 games), yet I'd bet all of them struggle to gain bowl eligibility.
- Possible Underachiever/Overachiever?
Depending on where Michigan is placed in preseason polls and how much hype they get for being a legit national title contender, I would probably put the Wolverines as an underachiever next year. Still, they'll likely lose to Alabama to start the season and end up no worse than 9-3 or 8-4 in 2012---given where my expectations are for them, I don't think they'll underachieve worse than that.
Michigan State and Stanford have to be the two teams with underachieving alarm bells going off like crazy right now. Both should return very good (MSU) to good (Stanford) defenses, but there's a distinct possibility their offenses take a major tumble with arguably each program's best quarterbacks in school history graduating.
If both of these programs are being offered up as top 20 teams in the BCS discussion next year, I think I would aggressively sell that stock.
I can't believe I'm saying this because Frank Spaziani inspires little confidence, but Boston College is a team to look out for that could overachieve in 2012.
Even with Luke Kuechly leaving early for the NFL, the Eagles return literally everyone on both sides of the ball, and went through 2011 giving valuable experience to underclassmen who will now be aided by the return of numerous injured veterans.
Spaz is still coaching so don't expect an ACC title, but you have to think that Boston College is going to make some quality improvements next year. If there was a team that is going to be picked to be crappy in 2012, yet will go on to win 7 or 8 games, the Eagles just might be it.
- The Effects of an Early-Season Soft Schedule
As tough as this schedule may seem, the Irish have an advantage of opening up the season without facing a truly tough or overly athletic team. Neither Navy or Purdue are poised to improve dramatically and both teams lost to Notre Dame by a combined 70 points last year.
This should afford the Fighting Irish an opportunity to break in a new quarterback, move the ball competently, and pick up some confidence before heading to East Lansing in week three.
Michigan State might have the best defense Notre Dame faces all season, but their offense might be among the least effective---so a 3-0 start is definitely a real possibility in 2012.
If that quick start happens, it would be only the third 3-0 start since 1993 and who knows where that momentum could take this team.
It would be nice if the bye week was after the MSU game, but as it is, a 4-0 start might be a bit much too ask. Notre Dame hasn't fared well in recent years against Michigan and the Wolverines certainly could be favored heading to South Bend even with an opening season loss to Alabama.
It seemed liked a good idea to place the bye week after Michigan and before the neutral field tilt against Miami, but the Hurricanes could be in serious trouble next year with major question marks on offense, 5 starters leaving early for the NFL, and sanctions potentially looming.
The Stanford-BYU-Oklahoma midseason stretch will be physical and a big test for the offense. Not many expect a win at Norman, but holding down home field against the Cardinal and Cougars could be crucial wins amidst a tough schedule---and possibly the difference between a good and bad season.
The Pittsburgh-Boston College-Wake Forest games starting in November have to be wins, for any losses down the stretch here might cripple the season before the Irish visit the Coliseum and take on the Trojans of Southern California.
56 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Nice breakdown Eric. I really like the idea that for once the Irish
get two so called warm-up games, and possibly three considering Mich. St is losing a lot, before they play UM. Like you said 3-0 before the UM game is a very real possibility and if thats the case UM could become win #4 just for the fact the team is going to have a winning attitude going into that game along with QB confidence and revenge on their mind of what could have been and should have been last year.
I’ve always disliked the off week before the usc game. I would rather the Irish play them , like this year, no bye week because I feel the bye week just relaxes the team to much, and they seem to need a half to get warmed up. I guess upside to the bye week is a chance to heal but I would rather be coming off a game and heading right out to usc instead of waitng 2 weeks.
4-0 start would be phenomenal, but it will be difficult
It would be nice to actually beat Michigan for once though.
I’m curious to see what Miami is like this year, I get the feeling that Golden is going to have to do a tremendous coaching job just to keep them decent. There’s a real possibility they struggle big time in 2012, and for that reason, I’m not really thrilled about the bye week coming so early before that neutral site game.
We play USC the week after the Wake Forest game this year. Were you looking at a different schedule?
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
Even though it was a close game this year
I’ll still give that an “oh snap.”
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
4-0 against 4 rivals will be difficult
but I believe they are better than all 4 of those teams. I’ll translate a bit what you were saying about Michigan E, that they were very very fortunate to be 11-2 this year. That’s what I think anyway because besides 1998 Tennessee, I dont remember a luckier team ever in College Football. Last years Michigan loss was one of the toughest Irish losses I ever had to accept and I want to get some payback this year.
Purdue is NOT a rival!
Harumph! /ndnation
fair enough
we play them every year so I grouped them in with the other 3.
So, not "literally"
“Even with Luke Kuechly leaving early for the NFL, the Eagles return literally everyone on both sides of the ball”
I fully expect to win at Norman, especially when ND goes there 7-0 and ranked in the top 3. No one scares me, it’s time to make the leap.
If Texas Tech can win at Norman
We can—-is that what you’re thinking?
Then again, that was OU’s first loss at home since the first game of 2005!
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah
alstein’s “ND will go into Norman 7-0” sounded very Skip Bayless to me. Last year, Bayless said the only thing standing between ND and a Natl. Championship was Stanford.
by Meager Reader on Jan 12, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
Nothing wrong with being optimistic
Every year I go into the spring convinced there’s no way we’ll win more than two games. As we get closer to the season I get more and more confident until the week before the first game when I’m ready to argue that Notre Dame would TOTALLY whip the Green Bay Packers.
One Foot Down
On teh Twitterz
It's better emotionally
if your expectations are zero. Then if they do well (even 7-5), you’re pleasantly surprised.
by Meager Reader on Jan 12, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
I'm just saying it's time to make the leap...
and if they do, they are better than the first 7 teams on the schedule. Will they go 7-0? Maybe not (probably not), and it’s hard to predict as much given recent history. But this is what happens in college football. Teams get better, performance swings wildly and abruptly, and given the foundation laid down in recent years, I don’t see why it can’t be ND. And if ND is 7-0 or even 6-1, then everyone writing it off as a loss 9 months in advance is out the window and it’s one of the marquis games of the college football season, no longer considered the mismatch that for some reason it is seen as right now.
Everyone concedes that ND should’ve been undefeated going into the USC game in 2011; I just see this as the same thing next year with the proper improvements and progression made to win those games this time around.
So you're definitely not sleeping on EG?
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
Definitely not...
and I expect one more turnover forced per game. Even if turnovers lost stay relatively equal (and don’t get returned 95+ yards anymore), this will be a dramatic difference. Mix in a consistently stingy defense from a yardage perspective, a few more plays made out of nothing from a QB protected by a stout offensive line, and hey, I just don’t think it’s that much of a stretch.
It's hard to argue with that
That’s what I’ve been thinking too. But this schedule is pretty damn hard.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
But who have they played at home during that stretch?
They always play Texas at a neutral site, and the Big XII isn’t that daunting (without any real defenses). I might actually have to look that one up…
I don't tweet often--but when I do, you can be sure it isn't important.
@jemiesle
True
Playing Texas in Dallas every year helps, but still.
Stoops’ record at home is ridiculous.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
Why not just lay it out all there
HOME GAMES OOC UNDER STOOPS (wins unless noted)
1999-Indiana State, Louisville
2000-UTEP, Arkansas State, Rice
2001-North Carolina, North Texas, Tulsa
2002-Alabama, UTEP, South Florida
2003-North Texas, UCLA, Fresno State
2004-BGSU, Houston, Oregon
2005-TCU (LOSS), Tulsa
2006-Birmingham, Washington, MTSU
2007-North Texas, Miami, Utah State
2008-Chattanooga, Cincinnati, TCU
2009-Idaho State, Tulsa
2010-Utah State, Florida State, Air Force
2011-Tulsa, Ball State
Not a great list, but still some good teams in there.
Stoops has only lost 3 TIMES TOTAL in Norman since he took over in 1999. Even with Texas in Dallas, that is insane.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
Wow. I didn't realize that.
3 times total huh. I suppose that knocking off the Sooners at their place might qualify as a “signature win.” I can’t wait.
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
by whiskey OFD on Jan 13, 2012 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
JFK predicts...
“13-0!”
(lol jfk is jk, probably would say 11-1 with the 1 to bc because he’s from there)
I would say
Navy W
Purdue W
MSU W
Michigan L?
Miami L
Stanford W
BYU L
Oklahoma L
Pitt W
BC W
Wake W
USC L
So, basically 8-4 if they beat Michigan, 7-5 if they lose.
Miami and Michigan are both toss ups and we won’t really know anything about either team until right before the game and they’ve had a chance to handle their seasons. Miami could have an Ohio State type season in 2012, or they could be like USC 2011. And Michigan is impossible to figure out right now.
I think the QB factor is huge so Stanford and Sparty are both wins. The only sure losses I can see are BYU because they are going to be hugely underrated, and there’s no way ND beats Oklahoma and USC’s Barkley will have a very good senior year.
P.S. And of course the bye week is an obvious W.
BYU as a sure loss?
“no way” ND beats Oklahoma? How are Miami and USC alike at all? Not that I’m expecting everyone (or anyone) to be as optimistic as me, but, to put it mildly, your explanations raise eyebrows.
I said
Miami was a toss up. As of right now I see it as a L, but depending on how they handle their season, they could be Ohio State 2011 (6-6) or USC 2011 (10-2). The sanctions thing will eventually have an effect, but the question is if it is immediate or long term. The mere turmoil put Ohio State at 6-6, but USC weathered its sanctions pretty good in year two, despite not going to a bowl game.
And yes, no way ND beats Oklahoma. Mid-season is right about the time Stoops makes a push for the Big XII title, BCS bowls, and national standing. ND is right in the middle of that. Sure, Oklahoma faltered in 2011 because it was knocked off by Okie State, but don’t expect that to happen two years in a row.
BYU was the most underrated (or least talked about) 10-3 team in 2011. They’ll want to make a splash next year, and knocking off ND will get them some attention. I definitely see that happening.
by Meager Reader on Jan 12, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
Miami went 6-6 and loses a lot on both sides of the ball
Golden is a good coach, but he’d have to work a miracle to win more than 8 games with that team.
One Foot Down
On teh Twitterz
They could go 6-6 again
but I still think the ND game is a toss up and can easily see Miami walking away from that one with a W.
by Meager Reader on Jan 12, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
I think you'll need to get a little bit more in-depth with Miami
If you want to say they could have a 10-2 season. Even without sanctions they literally have nothing on offense and they lost major pieces on defense. It’s not like they are sitting on a ton of blue-chippers (although the talent level is good) and they were a 6-6 team with a recent underachieving past. The arrow is not pointing up right now, and again, that’s without sanctions.
I agree with you about BYU, but I wouldn’t go too far with the Cougars. Being not talked about doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be good (fans were saying that about Maryland last year) and winning 10 games is nice, but they’ve done that almost every year in recent past and haven’t set the world on fire or beat many good teams. They should have lost to possibly the worst Ole Miss team in decades, they lost to one of the least effective Texas teams, were blown out by 44!! points by Utah, and lost to TCU. They have a good defense, but are terribly one-dimensional on offense (Riley is a very poor passer) and they get 90% of their wins over the dregs of college football.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
All I said
was that Miami was a toss up and we won’t know anything about them until the season starts. God, why does everyone flip out whenever I say something?
by Meager Reader on Jan 12, 2012 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
No one is flipping out...
people just disagree with a couple of your assessments. If you throw things like that out there, it merits further explanation and discussion. These are what comments sections are for. Chill out.
Revised predictions
Navy W
Purdue W
MSU W
Michigan Easy W
Miami W
Stanford W
BYU W
Oklahoma Blowout W
Pitt W
BC W
Wake W
USC Easy W
Natl. Champ Game vs who cares it’s an Easy W
by Meager Reader on Jan 12, 2012 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
So it's ok for you to call out my predictions...
but not ok for others to call out yours? I’m not sure what you are so upset about. I think 11-1 and I’m being criticized or at least being teased. You say that BYU is a sure loss and that Miami is similar to USC for some reason (hint: look at recent recruiting classes, Miami hasn’t been doing that well there either in the past few years, certainly not better than ND). No one agrees with those two things you said, argue your case with a little substance.
Why are the contrarians always the most sensitive to criticism?
Pretty sure you "called out" my predictions
BYU as a sure loss? "no way" ND beats Oklahoma? How are Miami and USC alike at all? Not that I’m expecting everyone (or anyone) to be as optimistic as me, but, to put it mildly, your explanations raise eyebrows.
So… feel free to disagree. I think my expectations and explanations are very reasonable. There’s plenty of substance to “we won’t know anything about Miami” as a viable argument for a toss-up W/L. If anything, I’d say your “7-0 and Big Win over Oklahoma!!!!!!” doesn’t have much substance because you didn’t even offer any explanation.
by Meager Reader on Jan 12, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
The difference between you and me...
is that I don’t throw a fit when people don’t agree with me.
And I have offered plenty of explanation after it was mocked a little bit. That’s fine. I have opinions, I have reasons for my opinions, and I enjoy arguing for my opinions.
Your continued outrage at people disagreeing with you is really my only problem with your posts. Other than that, it’s just open discussion and debate.
Sorry if I got outraged
I just get defense when I say something that some people think makes a lot of sense but so many people on here call “baseless.” I’ll work on that.
by Meager Reader on Jan 12, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
what are you, ten years old? What a whiner!
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 14, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
Why do you think Miami is a toss-up? What makes that game more of a toss-up than say, Wake Forest?
More importantly, what about Miami leads you to believe that they could have a USC-like 10-2 season and be one of the best teams in the country?
Just calling Miami a toss-up is fine I suppose, but your latter statement is awfully bold. And saying “we won’t know anything about them until the season starts” doesn’t really back up such a claim. It doesn’t really back up or mean anything actually.
We do know Miami is losing a ton of players and numerous underclassmen to the NFL. They weren’t very good in 2011 and they might have sanctions coming. There’s plenty to know about all these teams, even if it’s not all set in stone.
You’re not mandated to answer these replies, but you shouldn’t get upset if me or others want to know what you’re thinking.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Quote from FL newspaper
On Friday [Dec 16], UM confirmed that offensive tackle Brandon Washington and defensive end Olivier Vernon have decided to skip their senior seasons and turn pro.
That makes five Hurricanes – Washington, Vernon, running back Lamar Miller, receiver Tommy Streeter and defensive tackle Marcus Forston – who in the past 10 days have announced that they will enter the NFL Draft.
If you’re scoring at home, that’s UM’s leading rusher (Miller), leading receiver (Streeter), best pass rusher (Vernon), most versatile offensive lineman (Washington) and, when healthy, best defensive lineman (Forston).
why do you flip out when confronted with an opposing view is a more apt question
you are welcome to think overrate (in the eyes of many) Miami’s chances next season, but don’t get mentally irregular when others challenge your opinion.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 14, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
That 6 game stretch from MSU to OU is going to be tough.
That said I think 9 wins is doable.
I think we can beat both Michigan teams but losing 1 of those 2 wouldn’t be shocking. Worst case we start 3-1.
I would worry about Miami as a letdown game but the neutral site & hype should get the players attn.
Those home contests vs Stanford & BYU are tough. Need to win at least 1 of those 2 before going to Norman which could be epic.
I think we upset OU or USC next year to get to 9 W’s.
I wish the season was kicking off tomorrow.
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
by whiskey OFD on Jan 12, 2012 10:26 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Didn't we go 8-0 in Ty's first year?
by my name is inigo montoya on Jan 12, 2012 10:45 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Sorry for being nitpicky, then.
by my name is inigo montoya on Jan 12, 2012 12:02 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
What's nitpicky about it?
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Even if a team like MSU is down
This schedule is brutal. I’ll still take playing a game that matters every week; I don’t want cupcakes no matter who else is doing it.
by Chris Schumerth on Jan 12, 2012 12:20 PM EST reply actions
Anyone see the Tebow TD pass recreated by Conan, using peanuts?...hysterical
Its on the MSN website.
Damn you should provide a link for something like that!
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 12, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Found it.
Our buddies at Mile High Buzz have it up.
whiskey
www.onefootdown.com
by whiskey OFD on Jan 13, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Finally watched it
I was preparing myself for Charlie Brown, though.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Jan 14, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on One Foot Down
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SHOP THE ONE FOOT DOWN STORE
