Brian Kelly Plays the Numbers 58+14+14=86

As of right now I wouldn’t have McCarthy as high on the “trim list” as you do. If he actually makes an impact this year that could change, but I would probably put him down towards the bottom of the list. The numbers at safety aren’t great, but we’ll still be returning Motta and Slaughter, and that should give someone like Hardy and another youngster an additional year to grow until they are called on to see the field on a regular basis. I just wouldn’t bring back someone who hasn’t done anything over three years so far.

Since we evidently passed up on Schutt and the staff thinks our numbers at NG/DT are fine, I would think Hafis is coming back. He played quite a bit last year, so unless he is kept on the sidelines because Cwynar and Nix are doing everything, he’s probably likely to come back I think.

Goodman is an interesting case. I hate to say it, but I think Kelly wants to re-mold the receiving corps and he’s not coming back—-pending a season in which he is legitimately pushing for a starting spot or a legitimate threat as a fourth option. Kelly does like numbers at receiver, and I’m sure he’s still not excited about the depth there, but Daniels, Greenberry, Ferguson, possibly another recruit, plus GA3 possibly moving back—-that’s a lot of toys to work with in addition to the other players.

Due to the coaches praise of Golic recently and the fact that there’s no other center besides Cave, I’d lean towards him coming back too.

McDonald is another one who might have a chance, but he needs to stay healthy.

Right now, I’d bring back: Crist, Cave, Kap, Slaughter, and Cwynar—-with Golic and Hafis pending on how the depth at their positions develop this season.

Welcome back, buddy!

No chance they bring in a TE or a QB. 2RBs are a must, one more on the OL ,WR, DB, OLB/DE or both. That’s six or seven. I could see as many as eight, depending on who it is.

I think Crist is a no-brainer and if he values his NFL stock, he’d come back next year. (If he can stay healthy!)

I can see Mike Golic, Lane Clelland, Hafis Williams, Brandon Newman, Anthony McDonald, David Posluszny and Deion Walker all not on the team next year because all but one of those positions (Center) have younegr guys coming up with more potential.

I think it’s a 50/50 possibility that McCarthy gets his 5th year, which hinges on whether he can stay on the field consistently!

Thanks to all for the warm welcome back. I am stoked that I made it back in time for the season!

My favorite thing about this specific discussion is that it always highlights just how complex these decisions are for the staff. Every commit they take going forward is going to have a ripple effect somewhere on the roster. It is pretty wild to think that a guy like McDonald could lose his shot at a 5th year in favor of a new recruit but it is what it is. I don’t envy the coaching staff on having to make those decisions.

Eric- your thoughts on Goodman bring up an interesting point that I thought of but didn’t mention. I would be curious to know on what level if any Kelly wanting to get “his guys” in there plays into his decision process. We will never know the answer to that question but it could play into this at some level.

tlndma- Great to see you are still with us here. You always enhance the discussion.

Do your thing. See you in a few weeks.

Love these posts. Your Roster Breakdown is an invaluable resource for depth chart debates throughout the season. A few points for your consideration:

(1) Trying to categorize OL depth into OT/OG/C may be a pointless exercise, as there’s so much cross-training. Who would have guessed we’d see Hegarty getting reps at OG? I recall reading that N. Martin and Hanratty are likely to see reps at C, but I don’t recall Heggie being in that conversation. And Harrell projects as an inside lineman for us.

(2) Niklas is getting his first look at OLB.

(3) I’d categorize Day as a DE, since the staff recruited him for 3-5 tech. The rest of your NT column looks good, since those guys are primarily 0-3 tech.

As has been mentioned already, there’s probably a strong presumption in favor of replacing Weis recruits with Kelly’s own guys, so unless you’re a starting senior who plays at a position of need, you’re probably not coming back. The general consensus seems to be Crist, Cave, Cwynar, KLM, and Slaughter are all most likely to get 5Ys. After that, every other senior will require an outstanding 2011 performance to make it back.

Hafis might get asked back as a SDE; otherwise it’s Tuitt > Day > Hounshell or Schwenke. Golic, Jr. might as well, but I think it’s more likely that one of the freshman distinguishes himself at C this year and becomes the #2; after all, Golic’s eligibility would run out with Cave’s, so Kelly may prefer to get a younger guy in the mix.

I wouldn’t count on getting 2-3 further interior linemen. More likely 1-2 blue chip OTs; the best OL all play OT in high school, and Kelly just moves them inside when necessary to get his best 5 on the field.

I wouldn’t count on an ILB either, though Baratti could easily end up at that position.

No QB or TE; potential transfers are already a concern with so much talent and depth at both of those positions.

2 RB, 1 WR, 1-2 OL, 1 DE, 1 OLB, 1-2 DBs.

Nice way to inaugurate your new season.

Whiskeyjack and I are in agreement on most points. “Remolding” is the key term. I see Kelly and Co recruiting athletic, mobile OTs and converting them to interior lineman. As he said, “the best OL all play OT in high school, and Kelly just moves them inside when necessary to get his best 5 on the field.”

C can be taught as with Eric Olsen, who beat out the true C from h.s., Dan Wenger. With enough depth, which we have now, the Irish are not forced to recruit a specific OL position. This coaching staff can teach the positions.

Hanratty and Carrico are destined to be interior OL. One of Hegarty, N Mart, and Prestwood will switch inside, too. Harrell (2012) will be an interior lineman. I’d take two more OL recruits for 2012 – one for the interior and one OT. Depending on DL commits, Hounshell too could end up on the OL.

Interesting that the staff preferred Day to Schutt, who would have been a more natural NT, and that’s probably indicative of building some flexibility in their schemes as well as the eligibility chart at NT. I am not ready to put Springmann there as a 6’6" NT.

The remolding continues on the DL, which will have a true NT for some schemes, but have enough hybrid DE/DTs at 300# for 4-3 schemes. Niklas with 4.7 speed would be ideal for covering TEs and RBs. Does he have enough speed for OLB? Diaco is going to have fun moving these guys around.

Do you have a scholarship to give Schmidt, who came with Preferred Walk-on status, or Badger?

I’m sure the staff hates having to make these types of decisions, but it’s better than being under the limit and worrying about converting a running back to linebacker.

but I see 6 5th years max. Too many guys on that list have to have phenomenal 2011s to get asked back. Throw in a transfer or two (which is inevitable once the depth chart shakes out) and the recruiting class probably ends up at 21 or 22 (max).

At this point, Golic has to be in that group that comes back unless someone else really steps up at C this fall to back up Cave.

No TEs or QBs this cycle. I don’t think they are missing on TE if they don’t take one, since they only lose Ragone from the rotation, and Eifert-Welch-Koyack-Jake Golic should provide more than enough depth for 2012.

Assuming they get 7 more in this class, I have to think there is 1-2 RB, 1 WR, 1 OL, 1 DE, 1 S, 1 LB or something similar to that. The flexibility that BK and company are recruting cannot be understated at this point.

I know the Irish have like 6 to 7 openings left for the 2012 class and they have a lot of high 4* and 5 * offers out. If BK only gets 2 or 3 of those elite players will he just fill the class with his so-called second choices or let it ride till 2013 and take a large class?

So far his career consists of:

3-4 games as a barely adequate backup to Clausen
5-6 games as a good but not great starter in a new offensive system

and, let’s not forget…

TWO MAJOR KNEE INJURIES

Let’s say he has a great year, Irish go 11-2 and win a BCS bowl game – that’s great! His draft stock will be a lot higher than it is now. But he won’t be the #1 QB on the board (that will be Andrew Luck), and likely won’t be #2 or #3 or #4 – he’d be looking at a mid-2nd round ceiling. Why?
With two caveats: if Kelly wants him, and if he wants to be a #15 or better NFL draft pick.

1) At this point he will only have a season and a half as a starter, and only one season in which he managed to not have his knee spontaneously explode.
2) Two major knee injuries. It’s worth repeating
3) The relative flame-out of both Brady Quinn and Jimmy Clausen in the NFL. This SHOULDN’T count against Dayne (both were drafted into absolutely terrible situations, and frankly Brady lacks a true NFL arm, and neither have a lot in common with Crist), but it will.

Crist’s only hope of being a top-half of the 1st round NFL draft pick is to play good to great, injury free, college football for the next two years.