2011 Schedule Analysis: BIG EAST
by Eric Murtaugh on May 3, 2011 1:12 PM EDT
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PrintTwo months later and I'm ready to put the second edition of the 2011 schedule analysis on the interwebs.
This time it's the Big East and their quirky 7 games in conference and varied out of conference games.
Good times for everybody. Let's see who has a tough schedule next year and who most definitely does not.
Cincinnati Bearcats
OOC Home: Austin Peay, Akron, and NC State
OOC Road: Tennessee and Miami [OH]
Conference Home: Louisville (Paul Brown Stadium), West Virginia (Paul Brown Stadium), and Connecticut
Conference Road: USF, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse
Grade: C+
The inclusion of two MAC teams and an I-AA opponent prevent his schedule from being tough, but two decent BCS teams, including a trip to Knoxville, make it semi-respectable.
Whose idea was it to play two Big East games at Paul Brown Stadium? That seems like a program biting off a little more than they can chew, don’t you think?
NC State is sure to be solid (although less so without Russell Wilson), while Tennessee could range anywhere from bad to pretty decent. The Big East isn’t going to blow anyone away but there aren’t any hideous teams and the Bearcats have four games on the road.
Connecticut Huskies
OOC Home: Fordham, Iowa State, and Western Michigan
OOC Road: Vanderbilt, and Buffalo
Conference Home: USF, Syracuse, Louisville, and Rutgers
Conference Road: West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati
Grade: D+
This is a pretty horrid schedule, just look at those out of conference games. Two of the traditionally weakest BCS teams, two MAC teams, and one I-AA program.
Who’s excited in Storrs this year!
The Huskies also get four of the easiest conference games at home, which signals to me that this could be one of the absolute worst 7 or 8 win teams we’ve ever seen in college football history.
There's no way this team wins the conference again with the coaching change and losing some key players from 2010, but if they do get your pitch forks ready.
Louisville Cardinals
OOC Home: Murray State, Florida International, and Marshall
OOC Road: Kentucky, and North Carolina
Conference Home: Rutgers, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh
Conference Road: Cincinnati (P. Brown Stadium), West Virginia, Connecticut, and USF
Grade: B
FIU is a lot better than most people think, but overall the Cardinals home slate outside of the Big East is pretty cupcake-like. They will face two major challenges on the road however against two solid BCS teams.
With Pittsburgh likely to take a step back in 2011, the home games in the Big East all look winnable, but Louisville is likely to have a heck of a time picking up victories on the road against four quality (for the conference that is) opponents.
Pittsburgh Panthers
OOC Home: Buffalo, Maine, Notre Dame, and Utah
OOC Road: Iowa
Conference Home: USF, Connecticut, Cincinnati, and Syracuse
Conference Road: Rutgers, Louisville, and West Virginia
Grade: A-
This could shape up to be a very tough year for new head coach Todd Graham as it will become painfully obvious that he’s not coaching in the Conference-USA anymore in 2011.
Sure, we can make jokes about the Big East’s talent level, but combining those seven games plus three really tough out of conference matchups is something most other BCS teams simply don’t have to deal with.
Just looking at this schedule I don’t think it’s too wild to guess that this could be a four or five win Pittsburgh team this upcoming season.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
OOC Home: North Carolina Central, Ohio, Navy, and Army (Yankee Stadium)
OOC Road: North Carolina
Conference Home: Pittsburgh, West Virginia, USF, and Cincinnati
Conference Road: Syracuse, Louisville, Connecticut
Grade: C
Two softies at home out of conference, plus a matchup with what is likely to be a Navy team not as strong as in previous seasons, should equal three wins if Schiano can get Rutgers back on track. Yes, that’s a big if.
Anyone think the game against Army in Yankee Stadium sells out? Yeah, we’ll see how much New York City loves Rutgers then. They’d better hope they don’t come into that game with two losses or more.
Overall, this should be considered a weak schedule but is very average for your typical BCS team. North Carolina will take a step back in 2011 which also hurts them here.
Syracuse Orange
OOC Home: Wake Forest, Rhode Island, and Toledo
OOC Road: USC, and Tulane
Conference Home: Rutgers, West Virginia, USF, and Cincinnati
Conference Road: Louisville, Connecticut, and Pittsburgh
Grade: C+
Wake Forest is likely the weakest team on Notre Dame’s schedule, so the inclusion of the Demon Deacons can’t be much of a positive for the Orange. Aside from the tough trip to Los Angeles, the rest of the OOC games here are weak, weak, weak!
Their road games are nothing too scary either. If Syracuse is going to break out and have a big season, this is the type of schedule they will do it with.
Any chance they beat USC on the road? The Trojans will have opened up with Minnesota and Utah before the Orange come to down…could it happen?
USF Bulls
OOC Home: Ball State, Florida A&M, UTEP, and Miami
OOC Road: Notre Dame
Conference Home: Cincinnati, Louisville, and West Virginia
Conference Road: Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Rutgers, and Syracuse
Grade: B
This is a pretty solid schedule for USF, especially with Miami and Notre Dame outside of the Big East.
They should win all of their home games besides the tilt with the Hurricanes, but they will have their work cut out for them in conference play.
If I set the over/under for the Bulls wins in 2011 at 7.5, which do you choose?
West Virginia Mountaineers
OOC Home: Marshall, Norfolk State, LSU, and Bowling Green
OOC Road: Maryland
Conference Home: Connecticut, Louisville, and Pittsburgh
Conference Road: Syracuse, Rutgers, Cincinnati, and USF
Grade: B
This was very close to being a B+ grade, but it just can’t be there with Norfolk State and a pathetic Bowling Green program part of this schedule.
The Mountaineers do welcome the Bayou Bengals early in the season which should be a special treat for college football fans and psychologists, plus a road game against a decent Maryland team, and a tilt against rival Marshall (who West Virginia should have lost to last year).
Does this look like a schedule in which West Virginia can win 10 games?
Will any of these Big East teams have fewer than 3 losses?
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V-8 moment for Rutgers and Connecticut – “We could have had Notre Dame.”
For Rutgers, is Army at Yankee Stadium better than ND in East Rutherford?
For Connecticut, Fordam at home is better than ND in Patriots stadium?
Four of the seven Big East teams have only one non-conference (out of five) away game?
by Michael Collins on May 3, 2011 7:59 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah those weren’t good moves were they?
Then again, it helps them get “bowl eligible” at the same time. Pathetic.
by Eric Murtaugh on May 3, 2011 10:07 PM EDT reply actions
I think the Big East title is going to be decided November 12th at Paul Brown Stadium. Offensively, you have to assume Cincy is going to bounce back from last year and WVU might field the best defense the Big East as seen since…Miami/Virgina Tech left?
Louisville could make some noise too, Charlie Strong was a great hire. It helps UNC lost most of their team and Kentucky is the fat friend to the rest of the SEC’s hot chick.
by Brendan on May 4, 2011 12:53 AM EDT reply actions
I see Cincinnati is returning their entire defense from 2010, but I haven’t really looked into their depth chart enough to say that they are going to be great in 2011. Are they really going to be that dominant?
It’s tough to say who is going to win the Big East, it really is wide open (but in a bad way). I think Cincy will play better, they almost have to after going 4-8, but I would agree that West Virginia is probably the favorite.
Then again, this doesn’t even look like that great of a Mountaineer team. I think we’ll see another 9-4 or 8-5 conference champ. I don’t see one team here getting double digit wins.
Louisville could clean up in those OOC games, but I think they are one of the up and coming programs that are just a little bit overrated at this point. Even with Strong, can a program like that replace 12 starters and play better than the year before? History would suggest it’s likely not going to happen.
by Eric Murtaugh on May 4, 2011 8:16 AM EDT reply actions
USF might be the sleeper here. Expect Skip to start building some momentum, especially if they were to pull off an upset in SB. Also the traditional “powers” of the BE will probably be down this year so they could make a run towards the top of the conf.
The flip side for ND would be if they are hot, racking up wins, their two Big East W’s could be against duds and go against their SOS.
by Alex on May 5, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t think USF is going to be very good. 7 or 8 wins are always a possibility in that league, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will be that good.
They have to replace a ton of players and starters from last year and all indications are their offense could be atrocious this year.
I know just about every ND fan is worried about playing them in the opener, and rightfully so, they are certainly no cake walk of a team, but they are likely towards the bottom quarter of teams on our schedule in terms of realized talent.
I would expect a game similar to the Purdue opener last year. If our defense continues its play from last year (or better), an even bigger win.
by Eric Murtaugh on May 6, 2011 8:10 AM EDT reply actions
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