Is The Hat Really Going to Michigan?

Great post. I was just thinking about this earlier this afternoon. I saw a tweet claiming that Miles is really considering this. I told my buddy at work “Miles really is crazy if he is actually considering going back to Michigan.” And he just might be.

I know he’s a “Michigan man.” I get the ties and the whole wanting to go home bit, and Miles just might be crazy enough to do it. But if he does he will likely end up just like his predecessor.

Miles is a “CEO” type coach. His personal input is marginal at best and his game day decisions are already notorious. He was at his best when Bo Pelini was running his defense and Gary Crowton was running his offense. After a year of BS coordinators on defense he now has John Chavis in there. He needs that caliber of coordinator on both sides of the ball to be successful and he has them at LSU.

At LSU he has built in top tier talent that isn’t real hard to get. Recruiting will be much more of an uphill battle in Ann Arbor. There is a lot more competition and I honestly think he’ll have a much harder time getting high level athletes in there.

The fact that Michigan is a total rebuilding job should not be understated. When Miles was at Okie Light with 2-3 star kids his teams were average at best. I’m still shocked that got him the LSU job to be honest. Right now Michigan might be at their lowest talent level of all time and I don’t see Miles running the Rich Rod spread. So a full blown personnel makeover will be required and that isn’t going to happen overnight.

As a result, the suffereing in Ann Arbor is far from over, no matter who takes over. Best case that arrow is pointing up in 2013 or 2014. The current recruiting class is on the verge of being a total wash. I seem to remember that biting Charlie Weis somewhere around 2007 or 2008.

If Miles doesn’t stay put in Red Stick he’s certifiably insane. That said Michigan needs to go find a young hungry guy that fits their personality. I kind of get the whole “Michigan Man” thing but I think that is a bit of a misnomer. I truly believe a head coach has to embrace the culture wherever he goes and make it part of what he is doing. That doesn’t mean he has to have actual ties to the place before he gets there.

Bill Callahan at Nebraska is a perfect example. Not only did he not embrace the culture he pretty much peed all over it. End result = FAIL. Rich Rod at Michigan, same thing. Embracing the culture is important. Having actual ties to it not important.

I don’t envy Michigan’s position. Rich Rod was like thier Ty. By the time he was gone the hill back to the top was steep. In retrospect Charlie was probably a good stepping stone back to the top. His system fit the personnel on the roster at the time and he proved to be a pretty decent recruiter, especially on offense. In the end he handed off a program to Brian Kelly that was in a position to succeed sooner rather than later.

Best case for Michigan the next guy does something similar. Generate some buzz, get the recruiting unscrewed and pseudo sort of get them back to their values. Good defense, good ground game and some semblance of a vertical threat from a pocket passer with good receivers. The next guy may not quite get there but if he builds the foundation then when he gets run out of town in 3-5 years the table might be set for a guy like Harbaugh to come back after he’s had his fill of scraping to get into the NFL playoffs. That is best case scenario for them.

Bottom line, I don’t see the next coach at Michigan as “the guy” no matter what. And a guy like Miles who is almost certain to win 9 games a year at LSU would be totally insane to take that job. Doesn’t mean he won’t but he’s crazy if he does.

Apologies for the diatribe….

Good stuff, and I totally agree. It is important to embrace the culture but not necessarily having been a part of that culture in the past. Good point there for sure.

Don’t forget we play the first ever night game at the Big House next year, nice and early in the season too. It’s going to be a very hyped atmosphere, and we NEED to start beating Michigan when they’re down.

Reports last night were stating Miles had already met with Michigan on Monday and that he’d take the job if it is offered.

There has to be Michigan fans out there who are skeptical of Miles, but it looks like everyone has fallen in love with him. I’d say be careful, but can you blame them for thinking he’s the perfect guy for the job? What else are they going to do?

I really feel like he’s going to bring us copius amounts of entertainment…it’s going to be great. I think the only way Miles will be dangerous is if he bring both of his coordinators (and/or the bulk of his coaching staff) and he immediately puts together back to back top 15 ot top 10 recruiting classes that are defensive-heavy during the next two cycles.

I find it hillarious that people think Miles is going to be hired and the current Michigan class is going to get a big boost. Yeah…from #38 to #35. Dynasty!!

Interesting developments indeed. I can actually say I think it is more likely this time around than in 2008. Then the guy was just coming off of a national title (although I would say a two loss team had no business playing for the title in the first place, but there were many two loss teams that year).

Some reports have said that his wife doesn’t want to return to Ann Arbor. Others would have you believe that he will take the job if it is offered. I think he is crazy to leave LSU and the fertile recruiting grounds to play Big Ten football, but who knows, anything is possible.

One final thought—I now truly believe that SEC fans are by far the most delusional in college football. ND fans often get this crown, but it isn’t even close. When Auburn hired Gene Chizik a few years ago, there was outrage by the Tiger fan base. Now he just won the national title. LSU has two in the last 8 years, but the fans are not happy with Miles due to his poor decision making and clock management. The sense of entitlement is unbelieveable and it is conceivable that Miles would be under less pressure at Michigan than he was at LSU. He can thank RR for successfully lowering the bar for him, as he has basically had the same level of success in Baton Rouge as Lloyd Carr did while in Ann Arbor.

Like the post. Doesn’t make any sense for Miles to go. He’s already about the fifth highest paid coach in the country. Coming off a strong season. For what it’s worth, his 2009 recruiting class was ranked by ESPN as number 1 in the country. With FLA reorganizing and Bama losing a chunk of their offensive leadership, LSU is set up pretty nicely for a run at a second title next year. I think they will easily be pre-season top five.

However, not sure I agree that Miles wouldn’t be a good hire, eventually, for Mich. He has won a boat load of games. He won an SEC title and an NC with his own recruiting class in his third year. And he doesn’t get to play Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern and Minnesota (read: Little Sisters of the Poor) every season. Unconventional? Yes. Wins a ton of games in by far the best conference in the country? Yes.

P.S. What were his TWO SEC titles? Thought he only had one.

Miles has one, but Saban won the other in 2003. I meant for the school, not for Miles.

While the bottom feeders of the Big Ten weren’t very good this year, it was by no means a banner year for the SEC either. Ole Miss, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky and Vandy all struggled on top of an off year for Florida. Give Illinois some credit, they are better than most think. Northwestern is a solid 7-8 win team who lost their QB at the end of the year and should have beaten Auburn in their bowl match-up last year. Indiana and Minnestoa have new coaches and will be competitive in 3 years or so. The SEC and Big Ten have always been top-heavy, and will continue to be that way in the future. The only difference in my eyes is the best SEC teams have more speed than the top Big Ten teams.

I don’t want to sound like a Big Ten appologist, but their bowl match-ups this year were downright aweful. I think they were the underdogs in every game but one (the Sugar). Casual fans look at the 3-5 record and sneer, but it takes a different brand of football to win games in the Big Ten in November (just ask RR). Unfortunately, that doesn’t translate well to beating SEC teams in bowl games.

Bad research on my part. I saw he won the 2005 SEC West and brain farted thinking he won the conference that year. They lost to Georgia in the SEC title game.

Jim,

I think it is more likely he leaves now than a few years ago too. But I don’t think it’s a smart move.

Spot on with the entitlement aspect too. I wonder what the world of Chizik is going to look like in about 3 or 4 years?

MCS,

Miles will have an “easier” road in the Big Ten, but he’d also be taking over a team whose defense looks like a 4th grade pee-wee team compared to LSU. If he’s going to win and win consistently, he’s going to have to recruit at a very high level right away.

That’s why I think he’ll struggle. I don’t think he’s a great enough coach where he’s going to turn things around quickly, and I don’t think he holds the clout that most SEC coaches with his record would in attracting recruits.

Most people are expecting Michigan to struggle over the next two seasons, does Miles change that at all? Will recruits flock to Ann Arbor if UM is 9-13 over two years with him at the helm? This isn’t like Saban or Meyer coming to town where you know recruits are coming.

Jim:

Every conference has teams that finish in the middle and at the bottom. If I wanted to pad my schedule, I would take Indiana, Minnesota and Purdue in a heartbeat over any combination of Vandy, Tenn, Kentucky, Ol Miss. As for being competitive in three years, I recall hearing that three years ago, three years, before that and three years before that. Although, I’ll give you that Minnesota was at least respectable under Glen Mason. The SEC has now won the last five NCs and, while the Big Ten teams may have been dogs in their bowls, I don’t think Mich St. was a 40 pt dog. And why was it that everyone in the country outside the midwest knew that TCU would beat Wisco?

Eric:

Completely agree that Miles will not recruit at Mich like he does at LSU and that their defense was inept this year. I think we may, however, be underestimating both Greg Robinson’s incompetence and the effect of changing coordinators last year (see ND’s defense under CW’s ever-changing coordinator regime). You can’t make guys learn a new playbook every offseason.

Bottom line, I just want to see Mich strike out on their Michigan man (who happens to have one more NC than Schembechler ever did) and I want to see them hire Brady Hoke who, I’m confident, will make Mich the fifth best team in the big ten throughout his tenior. Basically, I home Dave Brandon’s meeting with the Hatter in the swamp is going something like Willard’s meeting with Kurz in ‘Apocalypse Now.’

I had TCU beating Wisconsin!! Even predicted it by two points!!

Question is, does Buffalo, NY count as the Midwest? I like to think of us Western New Yorkers as the gateway to the Midwest.

Good point on Greg Robinson and the incompetence there. Although Robinson has been at least a decent coach in other stops. Coaching has been a big problem at UM, and if Miles brings his coordinators and most of his staff, they get a huge upgrade, but the talent that is there on that side of the ball is still as bad as it has ever been.

I just saw on ESPN that Miles will stay at LSU. Heh, heh, heh…..

He’s smarter than we think.

Gotta be Hoke then?

UNC hired Roy Williams b/c he is a “UNC Man”. It’s kind of cool when your program runs that deep that they can just hire alums, products of the system. “The Hat” (all bits aside) is a good coach. He had OSU beating OU regularly when he was at Stillwater. It’d be a good hire. Les Miles vs. Jim Tressel would be awesome/hilarious on so many different levels.

Has to be Hoke. Like all Flyers, it is hard to predict how he will do until he gets up there on the big stage and does it. Can he recruit at the level required? What assistants will he bring with them? I expect a lot of apprehension from the Michigan faithful heading into next season. Should be interesting to say the least.

SEC, SEC, SEC!!!!

I am so tired about hearing how bad the Big 10 matchups were. BOO WHO the boys in Vegas know that they just aren’t that good. The Co-Champs got blown out by like 35 against the team that finished fourth in the SEC west. Wisconsin got beat by a team who they outweighed on the line by 60 pounds a man. Ohio State should have lost that game. FLA beat Jo PA and the second to last place team in the west blew the doors out of Michigan. I would have loved to see how it would go down with Auburn vs. Ohio State, LSU vs. Wisconsin, Arkansas vs. Michigan State, South Carolina vs. Michigan, Bama vs. Penn State, Miss St vs. Iowa, UF vs NorthWestern and on and on and on. The SEC is would sweep in a head to head matchup with an average margin of victory of 30pts. The idea that KY and Ole Miss aren’t better than the cellar dwellers in the big 10 (11?) (12?) is totally laughable. Does anyone feel that any Big 10 team would be favored?

MCS:

Like I said before, I am not trying to be a Big Ten appologist. What I am saying is that I don’t think its fair for them to get dumped on by the national media like they do and it takes a different brand of football to win in the Big Ten. Under ideal conditions, most SEC teams probably beat most Big Ten teams due to the speed factor. Just some food for thought, here is Nick Saban’s record at Michigan State, LSU and Alabama:

MSU (‘95’-99): 34-24-1 (best season 9-2)
LSU (‘00-’04): 48-16 (best season 13-1)
Alabama (’07-current): 43-11 (best season 14-0)

I will let you interpret the numbers any way you would like. One question though—did he magically learn something in arriving at LSU that turned him from a .586 to a .771 win % coach? Two other things to think about before you answer: His record as HC at Toledo (‘90) was 9-2. His record at Miami (’05-’06) was 15-17.

However, weather often plays a huge role in Big Ten games (and all cold weather team home games for that matter). As an example, look at the Penn State-LSU bowl game from last year. The rain neutralized the LSU speed and Penn State dominated the game. Same thing happened in the Sun Bowl this year for the ND-Miami matchup. Miami was too concerned about the cold and not enough about playing the game. ND fans are probably nodding their heads in agreement, especially when you think about USC coming to South Bend in early/mid October every year instead of late November.

Everyone and their brother (or brother-in-law in my case, who is a Michigan State alum) knew that the Spartans were outmatched in their game vs. Alabama. Was a 40 pt loss surprising? Yes. Was I shocked they lost? No. They just didn’t match up well with Alabama, and the same thing could be said for most of the Big Ten New Year’s Day match-ups. Bowl games become a crapshoot more often than not and get way too much attention/emphasis when judging the success of a season.

What would be phenomenal is to see the SEC and Big Ten enter into an agreement much like the ACC-Big Ten challenge in basketball. Have all 12 teams play one team from the other conference, with match-ups being decided based on how they finish the previous season. I don’t think the scheduling piece would be all that difficult, since they would play eachother during the non-conference portion of the schedule. Better yet, why not have them play Labor Day weekend to milk the exposure for all its worth? Games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and possibly even Monday would be phenomenal for the sport.

For the record, I think the Big Ten (and Jim Delany specifically) comes across as looking like giant asses with their divisional names. The logo is just plain aweful. You can’t tell me that a 4th grader couldn’t come up with something better.

As far as the TCU-Wisconsin game, all I can say is that I think Bret Bielima is clearly not a very good coach. The game plan was horrible. I am not taking anything away from TCU, they were clearly the better team in the Rose Bowl. But let me ask you this—if you have three very productive backs and a 50 lb per man advantage on your offensive line, why do you run first down play action time and time again? I didn’t understand it. Look at what Stanford and Auburn did in their games. They used their size/physicality to their advantage and wore their opponents down. Instead, Wisconsin decides to put the game in the hands of an average at best starting QB. I don’t think everyone in the midwest thought Wisconsin would run away with the game. I think most educated football fans thought it would be a great match-up and game, which it was.

If you want to talk about conventional wisdom, you could go on for a while about the Seattle-New Orleans NFL playoff game. But then again, I actually picked Seattle to win that one.

We don’t play games like the Saints-Seahawks matchup in college.

Because in college, “everyone” involved in the process “knows” that the Saints are “clearly” the “better team.”

Why settle it on the field, when we have opinion?

I need to agree with MCS on two counts:

1. Miles is primed for a National championship run next year. He has every reason to stay at LSU, and no reason to go to Michigan.

2. The SEC is by far the best conference in the country. The case hardly needs to be made, but here goes. SEC teams have won 5 straight national championships and 6 of the last 10. Sorry Jim, but this matchup talk is nothing but excuse-making. Dimes said it—your co-Big Ten champs got absolutely blown out by The fourth place SEC west team. I hate to admit it, I really do, but the SEC has completely dominated the new millenium. I don’t think they do it the right way. In fact I’m sure that they don’t. But the rest of the country hasnt been able to compete with the SEC for quite a while. The poster above was right, you’d be crazy to take Illinois or Northwestern over Mississippi state or even vandy.

Mouth

I don’t have any problem with admitting that the SEC is by far the best conference.

Gold star for me.

It is curious that the only bowl loss for LSU under Miles was in the Citrus Bowl against Penn State.

Remember back when I was pushing hard for FieldTurf at Notre Dame and people were saying the surface doesn’t matter and the faster team will always be faster whether the field is turf, grass, mud, etc.

That lone loss for LSU is the perfect example of how a torn up, muddy, and slippery field neutralizes a speedy team and makes them…less speedy.

There’s no way LSU loses that game on a nice field. There’s now way LSU only rushes for 41 yards and totals only 243 yards on a clean surface.

The slow plodding team wasn’t effected as much, but the fast and athletic team was.

Notre Dame is turning into a fast and athletic team.

I rest my case.

First, Michael Floyd is back for 2011.

Second, Hoke is in at Michigan.

Third, Les Miles just signed a 7 year extension at LSU. Looks like he used the Michigan job as leverage to get some more money and years out of his current employer. Well played, sir.

Eric, I enjoyed your comments as always. It appears that you actually understood what I was saying. Kudos to you

The Thoroughbred is back!

New article up on Floyd’s decision.

I’m all for an artificial surface at ND.

But don’t most big ten teams run some form of the spread? And is anyone goin to argue that the SEC doesn’t get big, powerful AND explosive players at every position? I don’t think we can say that the big ten is a power or plodding conference, and that the SEC is a speed conference. I think that’s too simplistic. And while the LSU/PSU game illustrates Eric and Jim’s point—which I comprehend—it doesn’t erase the SEC’s recent dominanace. How many college games are even played in the rain and slop in a given year? The regular season is over in November and conference championships and major bowls are played indoors or in fairweather venues. This is not the NFL, where teams play outdoors all of December and January. Maybe Eric and Jim are right—bowl football does not favor the big ten. But that’s not going to change unless they change the BCS and NC games locations or venues. I don’t think that’s going to happen, so the big ten better change its style of football or bring in some better players.

Denial is an ugly thing. There is a problem: the SEC just kicked everyone else’s hindparts for the better part of s decade. In addition to your gold star, murtaugh, I award you two big red checkmarks, and 10 Schrutebucks for admitting the scope of the problem. Now that we’ve identified the problem, Kelly and the lads need to do something about it by winning a national championship.

The Big Ten and SEC both have size, power, and speed. It’s just the SEC has a lot more. It might be too simplistic to say the Big Ten is power and plodding, but they are not faster than the SEC. And in many cases, the SEC is faster AND bigger. Hence the domination.

My rant on the Citrus Bowl game was independent of these discussions…just trying to politic for FieldTurf is all.

I applaud and endorse your turf-shilling.

“What would be phenomenal is to see the SEC and Big Ten enter into an agreement much like the ACC-Big Ten challenge in basketball.” (from Jim M)

Great suggestion. But, when do most SEC teams play out-of-conference games outside of the South? Subtract ND from MSU, Mich and Purdue’s schedules and what kind of SOS does the Big Ten play? Remember when Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State annually ranked in the top 10 each year in SOS?

Not anymore.
(SOS per Sagarin, and includes their bowl games)
39 Michigan
46 Illinois
51 Iowa
53 Penn State
65 Michigan State
68 Ohio State
71 Wisconsin
74 Northwestern

No bowl games
25 Minnesota
52 Purdue
78 Indiana
           
As for the SEC, only one team plays a SOS ranked higher than 43. Seven teams have SOSs at 30 or lower. ND’s SOS is 22 after their bowl win.

Look at Wisconsin under 80!

Good for them. They had their hands full with Arizona State this year.