Coach Kelly Plays the Numbers 60+16+9=85
by whiskey OFD on Jul 31, 2010 6:02 PM EDT
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PrintCharlie Weis spent his entire Notre Dame tenure trying to restock the Irish roster with 85 scholarship players. It would appear that his successor will spend his entire tenure with the exact opposite problem.
Brian Kelly and the rest of the Notre Dame coaching staff had a huge day on the recruiting trail Friday and picked up four more verbal commitments for the 2011 signing class. Running Back Justice Hayes, Outside Linebacker Anthony Rabasa, Cornerback Jalen Brown and Defensive End Aaron Lynch all gave verbal commitments to the Irish in the last 24 hours. I will talk more about the players themselves in a follow up post. But at present I am more interested in the numbers.
The four pledges bring the total number of commitments in this recruiting cycle up to 16. This is significant as there are 69 other scholarship players currently on the roster that will be eligible for the 2011 season. So as of today the Irish are already at the maximum 85 scholarships for 2011 if all 5th years of eligibility are granted and there is no other attrition. The end result is that in order for Brian Kelly to take any additional recruits in the class of 2011 it will require the use of a scholarship that currently belongs to someone else. Some difficult choices might have to be made.
Before I go any further let me explain how I came to these numbers. Like many others I like to maintain my own eligibility chart which can be found at the link below.
There is a key at the bottom of the chart that explains how to read it. In short, I keep the players in columns with their original signing class. A pound sign (#) after a player’s name indicates that he will have a 5th year of eligibility. Players in BOLD were 4-5 star recruits per rivals.com. Players in BLUE are those that I expect to see in the 2 deep or see significant reps. The overall number per class are as follows.
16 Current Commitments
20 Freshmen (SS Chris Badger will now be a frosh post mission in 2012)
18 Sophomores
22 Juniors
9 Seniors eligible for a 5th year
85 TOTAL
I anticipate that Coach Kelly would like to take at least 3 and perhaps as many as 5 more in this class. Another Safety, an interior offensive linemen and a receiver would round the class out nicely. So where will he make room? Will he have to?
I think it is reasonable to expect that 1-2 spots will be opened up by natural attrition. Freak injuries, personal issues, grades, Indiana State Excise Police Raids or other such things will likely free up 1-2 scholarships by February.
It is also very possible that junior Tight End Kyle Rudolph and junior Wide Receiver Michael Floyd will declare for the NFL draft following the 2010 season. I personally think that Rudolph will stay for his senior season and Floyd will opt to enter the draft.
In total that will create 2-3 more spots for a class of 18-19 players to sign in February of 2011. If Coach Kelly decides to take any more than that he will have to deny a 5th year of eligibility to one of the 9 current seniors that will be eligible. My take on the priority for keeping those 9 players at ND is reflected in the list below. I did it based on a combination of how the player has performed to date and projected depth at their respective position. So if Coach Kelly were going to trim this list of 9 I would expect him to start from the bottom up.
CB Gary Gray
SS Harrison Smith
TE Mike Ragone
OT Taylor Dever
DE Emeka Nwanko
OG Andrew Nuss
OT Matt Romine
LB Steve Paskorz
K Brandon Walker
How do you think this will play out?
No matter how it goes this will be an interesting scenario to keep an eye on as we move into the season. We will take a closer look at the current class in a follow up post.
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That is the most coherent explanation I have seen to date! Everything you said, I have been thinking, but could not have expressed it that clearly. Thank you!
I see Floyd going to the draft, Walker & Paskorz moving on. I also think the law of averages says we may lose one to injury or newly discovered physical condition, or suddenly recognized need to pursue a non-football existence.
That would get us to 20.
We need at least one WR, another DB, and one more big guy, OL or DL. Carrico or Springmann could go to OL if we get Drew or Tuitt.
by NDJL on Jul 31, 2010 9:30 PM EDT reply actions
NDJL thanks for the comment. I was hoping it would be easy to follow. 20 +/- 1 is probably where this class will shake out in the end. There is also a really nice balance in the numbers between all of the classes.
I can’t tell you how excited I am to see a full and balanced roster again. It should have a significant impact on the long term health of the program.
Throw in the added infusion of the new staff and I think the future is looking very good for the Fighting Irish.
by Whiskey on Jul 31, 2010 11:44 PM EDT reply actions
I think the order of the fifth years is about right except I’d move Nwanko down two spots. OL veterans are probably more important at this point. I know Elston said Emeka was doing better in the spring, but I think by 2011 Lynch, Schwenke, and maybe evevn Heggie would play before him (not to mention starters EJ and KLM). Hoping Emeka proves me wrong though this season.
by tendomer on Aug 1, 2010 10:15 AM EDT reply actions
I think the order of the fifth years is about right except I’d move Nwanko down two spots. OL veterans are probably more important at this point. I know Elston said Emeka was doing better in the spring, but I think by 2011 Lynch, Schwenke, and maybe evevn Heggie would play before him (not to mention starters EJ and KLM). Hoping Emeka proves me wrong though this season.
by tendomer on Aug 1, 2010 10:16 AM EDT reply actions
Gray and Ragone are musts to stay.
I’d probably have Nwankwo 3rd, because we’ll need a competent backup at DE in 2011, I’m not sure we can just throw Lynch to the wolves right away, even though he may be good enough.
The three offensive linemen are a tough call. I’ll go out on a limb and say that only one of them (likely Dever) will get significant action this year, so I’m not sure keeping the other two around is really necessary. There is pretty good depth on the line where I think Kelly could get away with that. It’s not like 2007 where there weren’t enough linemen on scholarship to have a inter-squad scrimmage.
Paskorz and Walker should be done. What a weird career for Walker eh? Starting kicker for a while and then falls to 3rd on the depth chart. I guess that’s what a 50% conversion rate will get you.
by Rocket89 on Aug 1, 2010 2:45 PM EDT reply actions
I forgot about Harrison Smith…the most intriguing of all these players.
We’re all hoping he has a tremendous “comeback” year of sorts. But what if he doesn’t?
What if Motta steps up and becomes the guy at SS and another young player steps in next spring? I highly doubt Kelly would push him out the door, but I could see Harrison walking away, if he was no longer a starter.
by Rocket89 on Aug 1, 2010 2:48 PM EDT reply actions
tendomer/ Rocket- I really think we will see 2-3 slots open up due to natural attrition + Floyd to the draft. After that I don’t expect we will see Walker or Paskorz back in 2011 which will open up two additional spots. Those next three guys (Romine, Nuss & Nwanko) are probably safe unless some 4-5 star type kid wants to flip to ND late in the process, announce on signing day etc.
The good thing for all the guys that are 5th year eligible is that they have an entire season to work their way into the mix. The only thing for certain is that something unexpected will happen with those 9 guys. Rocket’s Harrison Smith scenario is a prime example. You just never know.
by Whiskey on Aug 1, 2010 5:17 PM EDT reply actions
Agreed. Funny that the recruits can create competition in a sense by maybe providing extra motivation for some of those potential fifth years, although I doubt that they look at that way.
by tendomer on Aug 2, 2010 9:51 PM EDT reply actions
tendomer they should look at it that way! There should be a lot more healthy competition now that the roster is back to being full. You never want to go full Saban of course but those guys with 5th year options having to earn it is a good thing.
by Whiskey on Aug 2, 2010 10:12 PM EDT reply actions
Wonderful coverage of a (comparatively) boring topic for me. Keep up the excellent work!
by Fort Worth lawyers on Aug 25, 2010 12:05 AM EDT reply actions
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